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Harassment"},{"term":"Student Debt"},{"term":"UC Health"},{"term":"Workforce"},{"term":"anti-racist pedagogy"},{"term":"higher education policy"},{"term":"reparations"},{"term":"2020 Election"},{"term":"ACCJC vs. CCSF"},{"term":"Budget Cuts"},{"term":"Cooper Union"},{"term":"Covid-19 Cuts"},{"term":"Cuts \u0026 Cuts"},{"term":"Debt-Free College"},{"term":"Fake Knoweldge"},{"term":"Fake Knowledge"},{"term":"FutherCuts"},{"term":"Gender"},{"term":"LGBTQ"},{"term":"Metrics"},{"term":"More Cuts"},{"term":"Newsom"},{"term":"Nonpecuniary effects"},{"term":"November 2009"},{"term":"President Drake"},{"term":"State Audit"},{"term":"Structural Racism"},{"term":"UC Merced"},{"term":"UCSB"},{"term":"UCSF"},{"term":"USC"},{"term":"University of Missouri"},{"term":"Vegara vs. California"},{"term":"abolition"},{"term":"abortion"},{"term":"carbon offsets"},{"term":"climate crisis"},{"term":"climate policy"},{"term":"human capital theory"},{"term":"opinion survey"},{"term":"public support"},{"term":"review of The Great Mistake"},{"term":"slavery"},{"term":"stimulus"},{"term":"value of a college degree"},{"term":"white nationalism"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Remaking the University"},"subtitle":{"type":"html","$t":"A blog on higher education and related issues."},"link":[{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#feed","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/feeds\/posts\/default"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/1170716682680204889\/posts\/default\/-\/Public+Funding?alt=json-in-script\u0026max-results=10"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/search\/label\/Public%20Funding"},{"rel":"hub","href":"http://pubsubhubbub.appspot.com/"},{"rel":"next","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/1170716682680204889\/posts\/default\/-\/Public+Funding\/-\/Public+Funding?alt=json-in-script\u0026start-index=11\u0026max-results=10"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Chris Newfield"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/01078395415386100872"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"generator":{"version":"7.00","uri":"http://www.blogger.com","$t":"Blogger"},"openSearch$totalResults":{"$t":"86"},"openSearch$startIndex":{"$t":"1"},"openSearch$itemsPerPage":{"$t":"10"},"entry":[{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1170716682680204889.post-4129274186943868834"},"published":{"$t":"2021-05-24T02:20:00.000-07:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-05-24T02:20:04.640-07:00"},"category":[{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Budget"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Funding Model"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Public Funding"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Public vs. Private"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"The Reality of Governor Newsom's Budget"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-P_ff603zon4\/YKtlyLCk0dI\/AAAAAAAAE_Y\/D6FkUhq6GXk-eqGJ8VNXLLb7zgQO_Pt7QCNcBGAsYHQ\/s2048\/Screen%2BShot%2B2021-05-24%2Bat%2B09.20.23.png\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"1152\" data-original-width=\"2048\" height=\"225\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-P_ff603zon4\/YKtlyLCk0dI\/AAAAAAAAE_Y\/D6FkUhq6GXk-eqGJ8VNXLLb7zgQO_Pt7QCNcBGAsYHQ\/w400-h225\/Screen%2BShot%2B2021-05-24%2Bat%2B09.20.23.png\" width=\"400\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EA few things have happened since California Gov. Gavin \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2021\/01\/shortfall.html\" style=\"text-align: left;\"\u003ENewsom proposed an austerity budget in January\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"text-align: left;\"\u003E.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EState tax receipts came in higher than expected (though \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/uclafacultyassociation.blogspot.com\/2021\/05\/initial-analysis-of-governors-may.html\"\u003Ethey will not rise next year\u003C\/a\u003E).\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EA recall campaign collected signatures amounting to the required 12 percent of registered voters, so Newsom is now running for governor.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EJoe Biden's American Rescue Plan sent the state $27 billion.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EAnd Biden's three big Plans far outstripped anything California Democrats have offered the state since Grey Davis was recalled in 2003, leaving them paddling in Biden's wake.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ENeeding to get out in front of Biden's quasi-New Deal advance, and to show some post-pandemic achievement, on May 14th Newsom announced his \"generational\" state budget, a \"historic, transformational budget.\" \u0026nbsp;Here of course we welcome with open arms Newsom's recognition that solving California's problems means massive government spending, since it is true. The K-12 increases are especially welcome, as are those trying to reduce with the state's long epidemic of houselessness.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EYet like Biden, Newsom sees a narrowed function for four-year colleges and universities, and is funding them accordingly, meaning meagerly.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe press did find his historic numbers hard to follow. \u0026nbsp;Writing in the LA \u003Ci\u003ETimes\u003C\/i\u003E, \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/california\/story\/2021-05-14\/newsom-promises-sweeping-change-california-budget-proposal-surplus\"\u003EJohn Myers noted\u003C\/a\u003E the range of the proposals\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cblockquote style=\"border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;\"\u003E\u003Cp style=\"text-align: left;\"\u003EThe governor’s list of spending priorities, which rely on a surprise cash infusion spread over several years that is projected to ultimately top $100 billion, is dizzying: money to house those who are homeless, support entrepreneurs, train workers, educate students and connect them to the internet, fix roadways, prevent wildfires and strengthen California’s power grid.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cp\u003EHe then added politely, \"It could be some time before the numbers outlined by Newsom can be fully reconciled. The governor frequently uses unorthodox ways to measure state spending, lumping together dollar amounts that span multiple years.\" The $100 billion in economic assistance translates into a budget increase of $40 billion in the current year--still an excellent increase, but one that should be defined correctly.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EReconciliation will involve a couple of simple moves. One is to separate multi-year from single-year numbers. Myers does that in contrasting the headline $100 billion with the annual $40 billion.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe other move that's especially relevant to higher ed budgeting is separating ongoing from one-time funds. The former commits the state to program building over time. The latter does not.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EUC's president and Board of Regents chair issued a statement to say,\u0026nbsp;\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\"\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.6); caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333;\"\u003EThe University of California is deeply grateful to Gov. Newsom for proposing the largest state investment in UC’s history: more than $807 million.\" \u0026nbsp;In his press conference (around minute 52 in the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/archive.org\/details\/dont-miss-your-shot-california-governors-want-you-to-get-the-covid-19-vaccine\/newsom+5-14-21+May+Revise.mp4\"\u003Eversion helpfully archived by Dan Mitchell)\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp;Newsom correctly describes the permanent investment as an increase in $506 million. It's better than the $136 million he proposed in January. But as with all these budget announcements, don't read the headline, read the top line (in the slide at the top).\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.6); caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333;\"\u003EHere's the table that Newsom's Department of Finance published, \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.ebudget.ca.gov\/2021-22\/pdf\/Revised\/BudgetSummary\/HigherEducation.pdf\"\u003Ein the Higher Education section of the May Revision\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-HfoJ_fJC1Nk\/YKrANY1UJFI\/AAAAAAAAE_I\/PuzxWPOwBYUK4Q9kgdrGmugYcWUIDDIDACNcBGAsYHQ\/s1906\/Dept%2Bof%2BFinance%2BHigher%2BEd%2BExpend%2BMay%2BRevision%2BDOF%2B0521.png\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"1382\" data-original-width=\"1906\" height=\"290\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-HfoJ_fJC1Nk\/YKrANY1UJFI\/AAAAAAAAE_I\/PuzxWPOwBYUK4Q9kgdrGmugYcWUIDDIDACNcBGAsYHQ\/w400-h290\/Dept%2Bof%2BFinance%2BHigher%2BEd%2BExpend%2BMay%2BRevision%2BDOF%2B0521.png\" width=\"400\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EThe second row of figures is UC's Ongoing General Fund. Newsom and legislative Democrats cut UC's general fund during the pandemic year; later they decided to give it back, but not until the following year (2021-22).\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EWe can redo the table so that it tracks only the state's permanent commitment to UC, in the form of ongoing general funds. \u0026nbsp;I give the one-time general fund restoration back to the year to which it belongs--2020-21. \u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ctable border=\"1\" cellpadding=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" class=\"MsoTable15Grid4Accent1\" style=\"border-collapse: collapse; border: none; color: black;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd style=\"background-color: #4472c4; border-bottom-color: rgb(68, 114, 196); border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-left-color: rgb(68, 114, 196); border-left-width: 1pt; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-top-color: rgb(68, 114, 196); border-top-width: 1pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 97.55pt;\" valign=\"top\" width=\"130\"\u003E\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: white;\"\u003EUC Ongoing General Fund\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd style=\"background-color: #4472c4; border-bottom-color: rgb(68, 114, 196); border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-style: solid none; border-top-color: rgb(68, 114, 196); border-top-width: 1pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 97.8pt;\" valign=\"top\" width=\"130\"\u003E\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: white;\"\u003E2019-2020\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd style=\"background-color: #4472c4; border-bottom-color: rgb(68, 114, 196); border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-style: solid none; border-top-color: rgb(68, 114, 196); border-top-width: 1pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 93.5pt;\" valign=\"top\" width=\"125\"\u003E\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: white;\"\u003E2020-2021 (with cut retroactively restored)\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd style=\"background-color: #4472c4; border-bottom-color: rgb(68, 114, 196); border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-style: solid none; border-top-color: rgb(68, 114, 196); border-top-width: 1pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 93.5pt;\" valign=\"top\" width=\"125\"\u003E\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: white;\"\u003E2021-2022\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd style=\"background-color: #4472c4; border-bottom-color: rgb(68, 114, 196); border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-right-color: rgb(68, 114, 196); border-right-width: 1pt; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-top-color: rgb(68, 114, 196); border-top-width: 1pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 85.15pt;\" valign=\"top\" width=\"114\"\u003E\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: white;\"\u003E2 year cumulative change\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd style=\"background-color: #d9e2f3; border-bottom-color: rgb(142, 170, 219); border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-left-color: rgb(142, 170, 219); border-left-width: 1pt; border-right-color: rgb(142, 170, 219); border-right-width: 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 97.55pt;\" valign=\"top\" width=\"130\"\u003E\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd style=\"background-color: #d9e2f3; border-bottom-color: rgb(142, 170, 219); border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-right-color: rgb(142, 170, 219); border-right-width: 1pt; border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 97.8pt;\" valign=\"top\" width=\"130\"\u003E\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;\"\u003E$3,724.3 M\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd style=\"background-color: #d9e2f3; border-bottom-color: rgb(142, 170, 219); border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-right-color: rgb(142, 170, 219); border-right-width: 1pt; border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 93.5pt;\" valign=\"top\" width=\"125\"\u003E\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;\"\u003E$3,766.0 M\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd style=\"background-color: #d9e2f3; border-bottom-color: rgb(142, 170, 219); border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-right-color: rgb(142, 170, 219); border-right-width: 1pt; border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 93.5pt;\" valign=\"top\" width=\"125\"\u003E\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;\"\u003E$3972.1\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd style=\"background-color: #d9e2f3; border-bottom-color: rgb(142, 170, 219); border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-right-color: rgb(142, 170, 219); border-right-width: 1pt; border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 85.15pt;\" valign=\"top\" width=\"114\"\u003E\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;\"\u003E6.65%\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe one-year increase is 5.5 percent. Note that UC's GF allocation still falls short of the magic $4 billion ceiling it's been trying to break through for twenty years (in unadjusted dollars, so the real problem is worse--I discussed this issue in \"\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2021\/01\/shortfall.html\"\u003EShortfall,\"\u003C\/a\u003E covering the history that made Newsom's January budget such an affront). \u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThis increase is obviously better, but you don't get to break the $4 B barrier by restoring a cut to permanent general funds one year late. More importantly, an average annual increase of a bit more than 3¼ percent does not qualify as \"the largest state investment in UC history.\" \u0026nbsp;It doesn't justify the \"huge budget boost\" trumpet blast in this LA \u003Ci\u003ETimes\u003C\/i\u003E \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/california\/story\/2021-05-14\/uc-cal-state-community-colleges-get-historic-budget-hike\"\u003Eheadline\u003C\/a\u003E, or the statement cosigned by UC president Drake and board chair Pérez.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThere are other commitments, all one time, where the main money goes to 2 things: workforce preparedness and student housing. \u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EState underfunding has helped turn student housing into a scandal of private development leading to overpricing, blown open this March when \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.voiceofsandiego.org\/topics\/education\/ucsd-students-faculty-push-back-against-steep-rent-hikes\/\"\u003EUCSD housing announced average rent increases for doctoral and professional students of 31 percent.\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp;Newsom proposes $4 billion (over 2 years) for a \"low-cost student housing grant program focused on expanding the availability of affordable student housing.\" The money may well go subsidize the private developers that helped cause the affordability problem--details are sparse. \u0026nbsp;It's a major problem, but would best be solved by the state restarting continuing allocations to capital projects, which it ended around 2006.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EFor the workforce, Newsom proposes $1 billion (over 2 years) \"to establish the Learning-Aligned Employment program, which would promote learning-aligned, long-term career development for UC, CSU, and CCC students.\" The money would form a permanent endowment. \u0026nbsp;Again there are no details: much better student advising is not mentioned, but employer partnerships are, so it may turn out to be a state subsidy for apprenticeship programs.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ENewsom proposes little or nothing in core needs. \u0026nbsp;Deferred Maintenance, a \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2019\/01\/new-governor-new-higher-ed-support.html\"\u003Eproblem totaling tens of billions\u003C\/a\u003E, gets $325 million in one-time funding, which for DM is a contradiction in terms. UCLA's Asian American Studies Center gets $5 million in one-time funding to research \"the prevention of hate incidents.\" He recommends $40 million more than that for the animal shelter medicine program at Davis.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EA better way to fight racist hate crimes would be to fully fund critical ethnic studies, gender, queer, and trans studies, political theory, sociology, history, and the other non-STEM fields that study these issues systematically and have long offered detailed solutions. That is not happening, and I will return to this issue a bit later this year.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ENewsom's thinking aligns with Biden's and the national party in a few important ways. They both continue the decades-old drift toward giving public funds to students rather than to institutions. \u0026nbsp;Student money escapes the instructional and (non-sponsored) research core, whose complexity and costs keep rising, but whose growth in operating money does not keep up.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ESecond, they are using higher ed as a kind of renewed welfare state. Newsom knows it is politically hard to address the state's housing affordability crisis by with a massive public housing program for working- and middle-class people, but fairly easy to subsidize private developers to build public housing for students. \u0026nbsp;The public colleges' working poor would be affordably housed for a few years.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe same goes for health and related social services (legal support for undocumented students, food security, transition support for formerly incarcerated students). \u0026nbsp;I favor this full suite of public support systems--it's the point of the Real College movement--but want them to be integrated into the society at large, funded through progressive taxation of the overall population, and not used as a \u003Ci\u003Esubstitute\u003C\/i\u003E for funding advanced education. \u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThird, Newsom and Biden see higher education as workforce training for economic growth. They also tie that mainly to community colleges rather than to four-year degrees. \u0026nbsp;Newsom bundles his two biggest one-time programs into an aggregate with a largish headline number that must be shared by the 3 segments, and which treats the segments and their students as the same. \u0026nbsp;Newsom is joining Biden in demoting four-year colleges, which is an anti-progressive trend that universities will need to fight.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThis budget is a lot better than a cut. But it's not the New New Deal. \u0026nbsp;I'd feel better about where it might lead had president Drake and board chair Pérez described it accurately and set out ongoing needs. \u0026nbsp;But they did not. \u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EHere's an update of the January chart, for context.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-SpDkUYlvE2o\/YKtvg2TNluI\/AAAAAAAAE_g\/tpenSQENddUXhzJ3lNdbQLyvV7nuCHZCACNcBGAsYHQ\/s1736\/State%2BFunds%2Bfor%2BUC%2BNominal%2BDollars%2B052421.png\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"932\" data-original-width=\"1736\" height=\"215\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-SpDkUYlvE2o\/YKtvg2TNluI\/AAAAAAAAE_g\/tpenSQENddUXhzJ3lNdbQLyvV7nuCHZCACNcBGAsYHQ\/w400-h215\/State%2BFunds%2Bfor%2BUC%2BNominal%2BDollars%2B052421.png\" width=\"400\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/feeds\/4129274186943868834\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2021\/05\/the-reality-of-governor-newsoms-budget.html#comment-form","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/1170716682680204889\/posts\/default\/4129274186943868834"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/1170716682680204889\/posts\/default\/4129274186943868834"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2021\/05\/the-reality-of-governor-newsoms-budget.html","title":"The Reality of Governor Newsom's Budget"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Chris Newfield"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/01078395415386100872"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1170716682680204889.post-4500161027274020685"},"published":{"$t":"2021-02-17T14:38:00.004-08:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-02-17T14:44:26.064-08:00"},"category":[{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Budget Cuts"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Covid-19"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Covid-19 Cuts"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Cuts \u0026 Cuts"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Funding Model"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"FutherCuts"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"More Cuts"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Public Funding"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Race"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Structural Racism"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"UC Regents"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"UC Riverside"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"UCOP"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":" Stop Redlining UCR! "},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Y-YFWGOlY6w\/YC2azEc6qgI\/AAAAAAAAE60\/ZWkwtCRoa_ssC19rGRoSLJziVtuRQOkkgCNcBGAsYHQ\/s1024\/ops.editorial.ucrtoday-1024x768.jpg\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"768\" data-original-width=\"1024\" height=\"300\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Y-YFWGOlY6w\/YC2azEc6qgI\/AAAAAAAAE60\/ZWkwtCRoa_ssC19rGRoSLJziVtuRQOkkgCNcBGAsYHQ\/w400-h300\/ops.editorial.ucrtoday-1024x768.jpg\" width=\"400\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EAn Open Letter to University of California President Michael V. Drake and the University of California Board of Regents\u003Cp\u003EDear President Drake and Members of the UC Board of Regents,\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EWe write to you today with our backs against the wall. As department chairs and program directors in the most racially diverse college at one of the two most racially diverse campuses in the University of California system, we in UC Riverside’s College of Humanities, Arts, and Social Sciences (CHASS) and our staff and faculty colleagues across UCR have been struggling for years to make ends meet. Already chronically underfunded by the state, UCR was devastated by the budget decisions made by then-President Yudof and the Regents at the height of the Great Recession. We have worked in staggeringly understaffed and underfunded conditions since then. Yet on top of our chronic underfunding by the state, we now face an additional – and permanent – 11 percent budget cut. This is not just unsustainable financially, it is unsupportable on grounds of fairness, equity, and most importantly, of racial justice – pillars of the University of California’s mission.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EUCR’s budget is made up almost entirely of salaries and benefits – in CHASS, the proportion is 98 percent. Thus any permanent budget cut inevitably is a cut in people. We hemorrhaged staff and faculty during the Great Recession, and although we have been able to hire additional faculty in subsequent years, our student population has grown rapidly enough to largely outpace those gains, leaving us severely overcrowded and still struggling to rebuild. Our world-class research university already operates on a shoestring; further cuts would be devastating. For many of us, this pattern of systemic neglect and chronic underfunding of a university serving a student body composed of at least 85 percent students of color is troublingly reminiscent of redlining, the practices consolidated after the Second World War that devastated thriving neighborhoods made up predominantly of people of color. We are writing to implore you to stop the redlining of UCR.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EWith roots stretching back to the turn of the twentieth century, UCR has a distinguished history in the UC system. A former agricultural experiment station, UCR was meant to serve as a flagship undergraduate institution in the UC system, serving the Inland region of Southern California. UCR is second only to UC Merced in the percentage of students of color, has one of the highest percentages of Pell grant recipients in the nation, and serves a student body that is well over 50 percent first-generation college students. Yet our increasingly brown and working-class campus has frequently been overlooked or sidelined within the UC system.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThis is not simply a symbolic move; even after a post-recession reconfiguration of the UC system’s distribution of state funds to its campuses, UCR currently receives approximately $8,500 per student, whereas UCLA receives closer to $11,500 and the Berkeley, Davis, Irvine, and San Diego campuses receive $10,000. Yet our student-to-faculty ratio is higher than the UC system average, and our student-to-staff ratio is fully 38% higher. We applaud the recent “re-benching” decision that will bring the funding of UCR and other under-funded campuses to within 95 percent of the systemwide per-student average by 2024. But as with redlined neighborhoods, the damage to UCR’s resources from decades of neglect cannot be reversed simply by bringing our support from the system up to an amount that is only slightly below average rather than grossly below average, nor will the phased-in implementation of this plan help us avoid devastation in the present moment. We were facing an 11 percent budget cut before the announcement of the re-benching; we are facing the same budget cut after its announcement, because rebenching is not enough.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EIt takes more funding, not less, to create an educational environment in which first-generation college students and students of color can thrive. UCR has been lauded for closing the gap in graduation rates between white students and students of color, and for the past two years \u003Ci\u003EUS News and World Report\u003C\/i\u003E has ranked us the top US university for social mobility. We have an internationally renowned faculty that includes two Nobel Laureates, close to fifty Fulbright and National Endowment for the Humanities Fellows, and nineteen Guggenheim Fellows. But in addition to being highly accomplished researchers, scholars, and artists, our faculty are something more: many of us came to and have remained at UCR because of our deep commitment to serving first-generation and BIPOC (Black, Indigenous, and people of color) students. UCR educates Californians – 96 percent of our students are California residents – and in return, because we do not expand our budget with out-of-state tuition, we suffer. Were all UC campuses facing the same dire circumstances, we would weather the storm shoulder-to-shoulder with them. Instead, we are being left out in the cold yet again: when many colleges at other UC campuses are losing only two to three percent of their budgets, we are facing the stark decisions demanded by an 11 percent permanent budget cut. This abandonment by the President’s office and the Board of Regents is a demoralizing example of structural racism.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EFor nearly a year, we have all witnessed the disproportionate impact of both COVID-19 and the pandemic-induced recession on BIPOC communities, some of them the same communities devastated by redlining and nearly destroyed by the Great Recession. Communities subjected to decades and, in many cases, centuries of systemic racism have few of the resources that have helped many white communities to remain safe and financially solvent during this crisis. Systematically deprived of resources through decades of neglect, our campus – with one of the brownest and poorest student bodies in the entire UC system – is facing economic devastation. How will staff who already do the work of two people take on more, if we have to cut our staffing even further? How will departments that are already stretched to breaking stretch further? Should we increase our teaching load even more, and destroy the stellar educational system we have built in favor of an impersonal factory model? Should we turn away from our research and creative production and deprive our students of the cutting-edge insights and opportunities afforded by a world-class faculty? With a globally engaged student body, should we meekly accept the elimination of UCR from the UCDC program and others like it? The UC system clearly believes that students at other UC campuses deserve these opportunities; are our students any less deserving?\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe correlation is glaring between the fact that we serve one of the highest numbers of BIPOC students in the system, the historic lack of systemwide investment in our campus, and the offer of a solution that brings the UC system’s support of us to less far below average over the course of the next several years. In a time of long-overdue attention to the destruction wreaked by systemic racism in the US, it should finally be clear that UCR’s students deserve a fully equal investment from the UC system, including support to correct for years of economic marginalization. It’s time to stop redlining UCR.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ERespectfully,\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EJuliann Emmons Allison, Director, Global Studies\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ESheila Bergman, Executive Director, UCR ARTS\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EHeidi Brayman, Director, Liberal Studies\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ERogerio Budasz, Chair, Department of Music\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EEdward T. Chang, Director, Young Oak Kim Center for Korean American Studies Christopher K. Chase-Dunn, Director, Institute for Research on World-Systems Walter A. Clark, Director, Center for Iberian and Latin American Music Derick A. Fay, Acting Chair, Department of Anthropology\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ETod Goldberg, Program Director, Low Residency MFA in Creative Writing \u0026amp; Writing for the Performing Arts\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EWeihsin Gui, Director, Southeast Asian Studies Program\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ESherine Hafez, Chair, Department of Gender and Sexuality Studies\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ESteven M. Helfand, Chair, Department of Economics\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ERickerby Hinds, Chair, Department of Theater, Film, and Digital Production Tamara C. Ho, Director, California Center for Native Nations\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EMatthew King, Director, Asian Studies Program\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EJacques Lezra, Chair, Department of Hispanic Studies\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EDavid Lloyd, Chair, Department of English\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ETom Lutz, Chair, Department of Creative Writing\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EJohn N. Medearis, Chair, Department of Political Science\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EYunhee Min, Chair, Department of Art\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EJennifer R. Nájera, Chair, Department of Ethnic Studies\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EDaniel Ozer, Chair, Department of Psychology\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EAndrews Reath, Chair, Department of Philosophy\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EEllen Reese, Co-Chair, Department of Sociology and Chair of Labor Studies Judith Rodenbeck, Chair, Department of Media and Cultural Studies\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EJeff Sacks, Chair, Department of Comparative Literature and Languages Michele Salzman, Chair, Department of History\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EJoel Mejia Smith, Chair, Department of Dance\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EGlenn Stanley, Co-chair, Department of Sociology\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EJason Weems, Chair, Department of the History of Art\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EMelissa M. Wilcox, Chair, Department of Religious Studies\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/feeds\/4500161027274020685\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2021\/02\/stop-redlining-ucr.html#comment-form","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/1170716682680204889\/posts\/default\/4500161027274020685"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/1170716682680204889\/posts\/default\/4500161027274020685"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2021\/02\/stop-redlining-ucr.html","title":" Stop Redlining UCR! "}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Chris Newfield"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/01078395415386100872"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1170716682680204889.post-8385156372853782321"},"published":{"$t":"2020-08-10T16:51:00.004-07:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-10-08T02:54:20.662-07:00"},"category":[{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Academic everything"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Admin Responses"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Austerity"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Budget"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Cal State"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Covid-19"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Cuts"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Politics"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Public Funding"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"UC Regents"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Our Converging Crises V:  Weak Democrats and their Governing Boards Feed Austerity Budgets"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-1TGatOTkchg\/XzHGwIbkU9I\/AAAAAAAAEqk\/9qfB7zMiiMcLvc8481Ylxwi7a9efnd3oACNcBGAsYHQ\/s628\/UCRegents%2BSFGate%2B091511.jpg\" style=\"clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"418\" data-original-width=\"628\" height=\"267\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-1TGatOTkchg\/XzHGwIbkU9I\/AAAAAAAAEqk\/9qfB7zMiiMcLvc8481Ylxwi7a9efnd3oACNcBGAsYHQ\/w402-h267\/UCRegents%2BSFGate%2B091511.jpg\" width=\"402\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EThat may be my worst title ever but it's an important point.\u0026nbsp; So here we go.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EWhere are university budgets near the end of our bad policy summer?\u0026nbsp; In a bad place -- a worse place than seemed likely during the weeks of activist government from mid-March to mid-May. In this post, I'll discuss the national issue, describe a flawed university budget discourse that makes universities more vulnerable, and link this to the failure of today's mainstream Democrats to accept the economic role of government.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe federal CARES Act was signed on March 27th, and sent universities $14 billion of the $46.6 billion they'd requested (with half of that going directly to students). Having gotten 1\/6th of their stated need, higher ed advocates placed their hopes in a follow-up HEROES Act passed the House on May 15th, which Mitch McConnell, Senate Majority Leader, sat on throughout the summer.\u0026nbsp; Thus the nation's schools and colleges planned for fall in a state of deep uncertainty and growing dread.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThis past weekend, POTUS \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/business\/2020\/08\/09\/heres-what-is-actually-trumps-four-executive-orders\/ \"\u003Esigned executive orders (mostly \"memoranda\") \u003C\/a\u003Emandating supplemental unemployment benefits \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/rachelsandler\/2020\/08\/08\/600-weekly-unemployment-check-cut-to-400-under-trump-executive-orders-and-more\/#383bbd30392a\"\u003Eat $300 rather than CARES's $600 per week\u003C\/a\u003E, with another $100 to come from the states. He extended student loan forbearance from September 30 to the end of the year.\u0026nbsp; Even if these orders go into effect, there are no provisions for supplemental funding for education at any level, including nothing for the K-12 systems that POTUS and his Department of Education secretary have been trying to \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2020\/07\/07\/politics\/trump-education-schools-reopening\/index.html\"\u003Ebully into opening\u003C\/a\u003E.\u0026nbsp; If the states are forced to pay part of the federal unemployment supplement, which \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-us\/news\/politics\/trump-orders-states-to-fund-unemployment-boost-governors-fear-they-cant\/ar-BB17MIdA\"\u003Esome say they can't\u003C\/a\u003E, that will mean even bigger state cuts to education.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe American Council on Education has a\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.acenet.edu\/News-Room\/Pages\/ACE-Other-Associations-Outline-Key-Provisions-for-Student-and-Institutional-Aid-in-COVID-19-Emergency-Legislation.aspx\"\u003E helpful summary of the current situation\u003C\/a\u003E:\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThere are technically three bills under discussion in the COVID-19  emergency aid negotiations. The first bill is the HEROES Act written by  House Democrats and approved by the full House two months ago. The  second is the HEALS Act, which represents the ideas of Senate  Republicans and the White House. Finally, the Coronavirus Childcare and  Education Relief Act (CCCERA) is legislation introduced by Sens. Chuck  Schumer (D-NY) and Patty Murray (D-WA) that reflects Senate Democrats'  ideas about education spending in response to the pandemic. . . . The bills all include  emergency aid for students and institutions, but the levels of funding  proposed differ greatly. ACE has estimated that institutions have a  total of $46.6 billion in increased student financial need and lost  revenues, and will spend at least $73.8 billion on new expenditures to  reopen in light of the COVID-19 pandemic. While CCCERA provides a total  of $132 billion to meet these needs, the $37 billion provided for higher  education in HEROES and the $29 billion provided in HEALS fall far  short.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe federal bill that comes closest to meeting actual higher ed need--at $132 billion--has no chance of passing McConnell's Senate.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ERepublican control of key governing bodies has artificially induced massive state failure in suppressing SARS-CoV-2.\u0026nbsp; The U.S. has the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/08\/06\/us\/united-states-failure-coronavirus.html\"\u003Eworst Covid-19 suppression record in the wealthy world\u003C\/a\u003E, and, by failing to build public health infrastructure (see \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/07\/14\/magazine\/covid-19-public-health-texas.html\"\u003EJeneen Interlandi's superb overview\u003C\/a\u003E), will continue to inflict massive suffering, disparately along lines of race and class, in all of the areas where common life should offer equal treatment, including education.\u0026nbsp; The failure of public infrastructure is damaging the private economy that Republican-driven premature opening was trying to protect. Republican opposition to a new stimulus increases the odds of a new depression (see\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/business\/story\/2020-07-29\/congress-600-unemployment-pay\"\u003EHiltzik\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp;and\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/08\/06\/opinion\/coronavirus-us-recession.html\"\u003EKrugman\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp;for summaries).\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EOperating on this familiar political landscape, it's hard for people to maintain transformative ambition.\u0026nbsp; I sketched one version at the end of April (\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2020\/04\/our-converging-crises-iii-we-need-to.html\"\u003E\"Our Converging Crises III\"\u003C\/a\u003E), which involved massive public spending for full Covid-19 suppression, full employment, and educational experimentation. The American self-conception is of a nation that leads the world into a better future. The reality, given our decrepit social infrastructure, is a vast majority focused entirely on getting by.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp style=\"text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003EThe Real Covid Budget Crisis\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe same is true in higher education. There's been no follow-up on the early burst of federal effort,\u0026nbsp; and higher ed is engaged in a new round of austerity, translated as operations cuts, layoffs, and program downsizing. The Cal State system threw in the towel early, \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.insidehighered.com\/news\/2020\/05\/14\/cal-state-pursuing-online-fall\"\u003Eannouncing on May 12th that it would be all-online\u003C\/a\u003E.\u0026nbsp; This was at a time when most administrations assumed Covid-19 would be well in hand by fall; Cal State's Chancellor Timothy White could see pretty clearly that they didn't have the extra billion they needed for testing, tracing, isolating, cleaning, tent classrooms, and the rest. Since then, reopening plans have gone into full reverse, including at wealthy private institutions like \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.princeton.edu\/news\/2020\/08\/07\/fall-2020-update-undergraduate-education-be-fully-remote\"\u003EPrinceton\u003C\/a\u003E and J\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.chronicle.com\/article\/johns-hopkins-goes-fully-remote-for-fall-urges-students-not-to-come-to-campus\"\u003Eohns Hopkins\u003C\/a\u003E whose core value is small-scale face-to-face learning.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EUniversity of California campuses are quietly joining Cal State's closures on a case-by-case basis.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/news.berkeley.edu\/2020\/07\/21\/uc-berkeley-to-begin-fall-semester-with-remote-instruction\/\"\u003EBerkeley announced\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp;all-online on July 21st.\u0026nbsp; The other semester campus, UC Merced, will open August 26th with an \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/news.ucmerced.edu\/content\/update-fall-2020-instruction-and-student-housing\"\u003Eunspecified ratio \u003C\/a\u003Eof remote and in-person. Among quarter campuses, which start a month later, UCLA has dropped its in-person proportion \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid-19.ucla.edu\/update-on-fall-quarter-plans\/\"\u003Efrom the 15-20% announced in June to 8%\u003C\/a\u003E.\u0026nbsp; UCSB hasn't officially updated its \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/chancellor.ucsb.edu\/memos\/2020-06-18-covid-19-update-fall-planning#undergraduate-instruction\"\u003Emid-June\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp;description of fall quarter as \"some face-to-face,\" but is heading toward basically closed. UC Irvine is keeping its students in \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/uci.edu\/coronavirus\/faq\/index.php\"\u003Ethe \"most classes will start remotely\" twilight zone\u003C\/a\u003E.\u0026nbsp; All sorts of intensive planning is going on behind the scenes.\u0026nbsp; And so are planning for budget cuts when UC needs that same extra billion that Cal State needed to open safely.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EAlthough dominated by liberal Democrats, the California state legislature put stable CSU and UC funding in the hands of Mitch McConnell at at time when he was already holding it hostage.\u0026nbsp; In \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.ebudget.ca.gov\/2020-21\/pdf\/Enacted\/GovernorsBudget\/6000\/6440.pdf\"\u003Ethe final state budget, UC \u003C\/a\u003Ewill get a 5% increase over 2019-20 if and only if California gets $14 billion in federal stimulus.\u0026nbsp; If there's no stimulus, UC gets what UCOP calls an 8% cut from 2019-20.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EIn addition, the permanent state budget is cut either way: the federal stimulus money will be treated as a one-time backfill on the state cut.\u0026nbsp; Even that was a \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.ebudget.ca.gov\/budget\/2020-21EN\/#\/Department\/6440\"\u003Ebizarre combination\u003C\/a\u003E of \"augmentations totaling $212.9 million and\u0026nbsp;reductions totaling $471.6 million.\" Rather than offering higher ed affirmation and stability during the pandemic, the legislature provided a changing combination of cuts and increases that, without an unlikely Senate backfill, gives UC and CSU a major cut.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EHow big a cut, actually?\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.ebudget.ca.gov\/2020-21\/pdf\/Enacted\/GovernorsBudget\/6000\/6440.pdf\"\u003EThe legislature reduced the state allocation\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp;for UC from $3.938 billion in 2019-20 to $3.466 billion in 2020-21.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;This is a year-on-year reduction of 12.2%.\u0026nbsp;\u003Ci\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/i\u003EIts a Covid cut of a size that a red-state legislature could brag about.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EIt's worth remembering all the way back to November 2019, when The Regents requested an increase of $422.1M in overall state funding, which would have brought state general funding to $4.360B (see the slide\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2020\/02\/budget-strategy-poem.html\"\u003Ehere\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp;minus $25M for the Riverside School of Medicine).\u0026nbsp; Annual base cost increases at UC are a bit more than 5%, and since that's 5% on less than half the revenues of the core budget, which comes mostly from (long-frozen) tuition, 5% state increases put core funding further behind.\u0026nbsp; Campuses have tirelessly tried all sorts of revenue workarounds, mostly involving overenrollment coupled with non-resident student growth, but it hasn't worked. (For the resulting long-term austerity, see \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2020\/05\/why-public-universities-cant-take-new.html\"\u003E\"Three Essential Charts\"\u003C\/a\u003E). On top of its rather brutalist history, the California legislature now proposes to cut UC by $903.5M from its November request--barring a McConnell conversion like Saul's on the road to Damascus. The is a cut of 20.7% from the Regents's November request.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ERemember too that even had that $903.5 million November increase been enacted, many campuses were projecting deficits in 2020-21 or the following year. That was not a luxury budget. To repeat: because of prior cuts by Govs. Schwarzenegger and Brown, years of tuition freezes, and sub-inflation state growth, the non-miracle state budget cut that now looks likely is a 20.7% cut from pre-Covid's home for UC semi-solvency.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThis would be a disaster for UC (and CSU). And it's likely enough to be treated explicitly in plans for both budgeting and the University's political engagements.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp style=\"text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003EBudget Idealism at the UC Regents\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThis brings is to the July 30th UC Regents meeting. The Regents have absolute authority over budgeting, revenue strategies like borrowing, as well as political advocacy. If alerted to a budgetary emergency, the Regents might be expected to instruct UCOP to mount a massive siege of Sacramento and Washington D.C., pulling in their contacts in the tech community as well as in national politics.\u0026nbsp; But UCOP's budget presentation (see the July 30 afternoon session at the bottom of \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/regents.universityofcalifornia.edu\/meetings\/videos\/july20\/july2020.html\"\u003Ethis page\u003C\/a\u003E), rather than rallying the Regents, kept the real dangers behind the curtain. And Regental behavior encouraged this concealment.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EUCOP presented the budget as in basically good shape.\u0026nbsp; Medical losses for March-June 2020 are $1.7 billon rather than the earlier projection of $2.8 billion.\u0026nbsp; UC Health VP Carrie Byington had already suggested that the med centers have learned so much about Covid treatment that they won't repeat spring's revenue losses during the current and future infection spikes.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EUndergrad enrollments are \"looking very strong,\" in the words of associate budget VP David Alcocer (11'47\"). He said the same was true of international enrollments, in spite of a very turbulent policy picture on top of Covid travel problems.\u0026nbsp; He basically claimed that enrollment targets would be hit no matter what. I'm also a bit of an optimist on enrollments because I'm a pessimist on the economy: even remote-college looks good compared to a nonexistent job market.\u0026nbsp; \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.insidehighered.com\/admissions\/article\/2020\/08\/10\/survey-40-percent-freshmen-may-not-enroll-any-four-year-college\"\u003EPolling data suggest we're both wrong\u003C\/a\u003E, and that colleges should expect a growing enrollment melt.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe presentation noted that housing and dining revenues will be down, but UCOP did not quantify or tie these to different durations of Covid-related reductions. A bit later, UCLA chancellor Block offered some campus numbers, and in later questions a couple of Regents clarified that only single rooms will be offered in the fall, though without revenue numbers for system losses. New VP for Research and Innovation, Teresa Maldonado, gave a candid appraisal of major disruption to research, UC's distinguishing educational activity. She was particularly direct on the damage to women and early-career researchers. But this remained a matter of delayed research progress more than a fiscal crisis.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe presentation of the state budget was a delicate matter (starting around 7'40\"; I'm not following UCOP slide order). Alcocer explained the numbers in the slide below (they are different from my calculations above). He noted that the final July budget has a better upside than the May Revise and a smaller potential downside.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-JKzBHWFaQok\/XzBA9HAjMMI\/AAAAAAAAEqY\/FAjRE0S-4YQfs7CwXOGNEervTie4swl7ACNcBGAsYHQ\/s1908\/Budget%2Bfrom%2BState%2BAlcocer%2BRegents%2B0720.png\" style=\"display: block; padding: 1em 0px;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"1352\" data-original-width=\"1908\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-JKzBHWFaQok\/XzBA9HAjMMI\/AAAAAAAAEqY\/FAjRE0S-4YQfs7CwXOGNEervTie4swl7ACNcBGAsYHQ\/s640\/Budget%2Bfrom%2BState%2BAlcocer%2BRegents%2B0720.png\" width=\"640\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cp\u003EHe then went on to explain his right-hand column. He noted that \"there's a lot of uncertainty here\" because the range of outcomes is nearly half a billion dollars, or 5% of the core budget (9'20\").\u0026nbsp; I can attest that the uncertainty has created in campus planning a somewhat toxic mixture of paralysis, wishful thinking, gloom, and fatalism about cuts. Uncertainty is actually encouraging austerity by making the early stages seem very mild.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EBut Alcocer's statement about uncertainty incurred an interruption from Chair John Pérez, who said,\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Cp\u003EI just want to push back on the way we characterize this uncertainty. And here's why. The way this reads to me, in simple terms, is \"uncertainty is bad, and smaller uncertainty is better than greater uncertainty.\" When in fact the final budget, in both the worst-case scenario and the best-case scenario, are better for the University, than the May Revise. . .\u0026nbsp; \"Uncertainty\" is inherently a bad term, so if we want to look at \"range\"--some other way to characterize it--because we don't want a negative connotation to the spread we see in the final budget, when in fact it serves us better than the May Revise does.\"\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThis intervention forced Alcocer to repeat what he had said two minutes before, which was that the upside was better in July than in May. It suggested to me that Pérez has no idea how uncertainty is weakening the campuses. It also suggested that he would not tolerate university officials criticizing the state legislature in even a polite and indirect way. Any campaign to get a reliably flat budget from the state (not conditioned on McConnell's conversion to St. Mitch), or an increased budget that could cover Covid costs, would never get off the drawing board under Pérez.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe misty aura of fiscal stability was punctured only by Berkeley chancellor Carol Christ, who projected a $340M deficit through fiscal 2021 (or more than ten percent of the campus's\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.ucop.edu\/financial-accounting\/financial-reports\/campus-financial-schedules\/18-19\/berkeley.pdf\"\u003E$3 billion or so in annual revenues\u003C\/a\u003E).\u0026nbsp; She read\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/news.berkeley.edu\/2020\/07\/15\/update-on-budget-expense-reduction-measures\/\"\u003Ea version of her administration's July 15th statement\u003C\/a\u003E, and stressed the dependence of the campus on tuition and state revenues. She stated that the latter were $100M below their 2008 level even though the campus enrolls 8200 more students today.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EIf the Regents had paused to take that in, they'd get a glimpse of the system's deep structural woes. Berkeley is historically wealthier per student than any campus except UCLA, so a responsible Board might wonder what its woes say about the rest of the system.\u0026nbsp; This was the only time in living memory that a Berkeley chancellor has said point blank that privatization doesn't work and thus we need good state support. Actually Christ didn't say that, but she came closer than ever before to noting that the problem isn't just Covid but a flawed business model in which the University has let state funding massively decline.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ELater, as Alcocer was about to move to UCLA chancellor Block for a campus view of losses in auxiliaries, Board chair Pérez interrupted to complain about how long the budget presentations were taking.\u0026nbsp; \"This was identified as a thirty minute discussion. . . . when an item is 30 minutes, the presentation is no more than half of that. We've now exceeded 35 minutes, before we've gotten a single Regent engaged in discussion.\" (32'30\"). The obvious remedy would be to allocate more than a half-hour to analyzing what may be most important fiscal crisis in the University's history.\u0026nbsp; The time overrun was entirely due to letting three chancellors say a few words about their campus finances outside of the UCOP PowerPoint story.\u0026nbsp; Things got even more rushed after that--and even more superficial.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EIn questions, terribly delayed to minute 38, Regent Makarichian performed his solo role of asking for budget numbers, and guessed at overall losses by adding some numbers in his head.\u0026nbsp; Pérez instructed CFO Brostrom to have those figures in the September meeting. I know Brostrom had versions he could have produced then, but who would dare try the Pérezian patience by pulling up another slide?\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EIn the meantime, UC is covering its losses with borrowing. It floated a bond for $2.8 billion in July, with $1.5 billion in \"working capital\" and the rest for capital projects. (UC debt has doubled in a decade from \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/finreports.universityofcalifornia.edu\/index.php?file=09-10\/pdf\/fullreport_10.pdf\"\u003Earound $10 billion in 2009-10\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp; to\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/finreports.universityofcalifornia.edu\/index.php?file=18-19\/pdf\/fullreport-1819.pdf\"\u003E$24.6 billion in 2018-19\u003C\/a\u003E). The budget discussion ended with a hopeful wait-and-see good-case scenario which, as I've said, is translated on the campuses as cuts.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp style=\"text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003EA Plausible Scenario for 2020-21\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe Office of the President and the campuses are all doing projections, so I'm going to adjust some internal UC numbers to draft a plausible negative scenario.\u0026nbsp; This is not a good case, but it's not a worst-case: for example, I optimistically assume that students who can enroll do enroll, and that all are willing to pay full tuition for mostly remote instruction.\u0026nbsp; The nicer scenarios assume a return to mostly-normal after the fall term. Based on our country's failed-state approach to Covid suppression, I assume that full fall impacts last through the end of Spring 2021.\u0026nbsp; I use the governor's January budget as a base for state funding, which was $220M less than the Regents' November budget.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe assumptions:\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cul style=\"text-align: left;\"\u003E\u003Cli\u003ETuition: full undergraduate enrollment.\u0026nbsp; Though 75% of admitted international students do not enroll, many are replaced by domestic non-resident and resident students. Waitlists and \"appeal\" lists are liberally used, maintaining overall totals.\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EHousing is converted to singles, and dining does not return to normal, costing campuses 70% of normal revenues.\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EGrad student enrollment. This falls 15%, slowing research, but it has little impact on revenues as campuses simply eliminate sections as necessary in remote courses, while canceled grad seminars free up some faculty to teach more undergraduates.\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EResearch continues to be affected by outbreaks made worse by shortages of tracing and isolation programs.\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EPhilanthropy is reduced by renewed turbulence in the markets, as is UC investment income.\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EMedical center and clinical revenues recover from spring 2020 levels but don't get back to normal.\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EThe Republicans block higher ed stimulus funding in the Senate. Although the Democrats win back the Senate in November, President Biden wishes to govern from the center, and decides not to antagonize the 48 remaining Republicans by giving too much help to education.\u0026nbsp; Like public universities everywhere,UC goes to its lower permanent state funding base.\u003C\/li\u003E\u003C\/ul\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EHere's a rough estimate of what this would look like by standard budget category.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Ctable border=\"1\" cellpadding=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" class=\"MsoTable15Grid4Accent2\" style=\"border-collapse: collapse; border: medium none; margin-left: -0.25pt;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd style=\"background-color: #ed7d31; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(237, 125, 49); border-image: initial; border-left: 1pt solid rgb(237, 125, 49); border-style: solid none solid solid; border-top: 1pt solid rgb(237, 125, 49); padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 220.5pt;\" valign=\"top\" width=\"294\"\u003E\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"font-family: \u0026quot;calibri\u0026quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cu\u003E\u003Cspan lang=\"\" style=\"color: white;\"\u003EScenario B\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/u\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"font-family: \u0026quot;calibri\u0026quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan lang=\"\" style=\"color: white;\"\u003EBudget Category\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd style=\"background-color: #ed7d31; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(237, 125, 49); border-style: solid none; border-top: 1pt solid rgb(237, 125, 49); padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 76.5pt;\" valign=\"top\" width=\"102\"\u003E\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"font-family: \u0026quot;calibri\u0026quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan lang=\"\" style=\"color: white;\"\u003EDecline $Millions\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd style=\"background-color: #ed7d31; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(237, 125, 49); border-image: initial; border-right: 1pt solid rgb(237, 125, 49); border-style: solid solid solid none; border-top: 1pt solid rgb(237, 125, 49); padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;\" valign=\"top\" width=\"90\"\u003E\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"font-family: \u0026quot;calibri\u0026quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan lang=\"\" style=\"color: white;\"\u003ENegative % Change\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd style=\"background-color: #fbe4d5; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-image: initial; border-left: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-right: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-style: none solid solid; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 220.5pt;\" valign=\"top\" width=\"294\"\u003E\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"font-family: \u0026quot;calibri\u0026quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan lang=\"\"\u003E2020-21 Base\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan lang=\"\"\u003E\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd style=\"background-color: #fbe4d5; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-right: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 76.5pt;\" valign=\"top\" width=\"102\"\u003E\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"font-family: \u0026quot;calibri\u0026quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;\"\u003E\u003Cspan lang=\"\"\u003E39,738\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan lang=\"\"\u003E\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd style=\"background-color: #fbe4d5; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-right: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;\" valign=\"top\" width=\"90\"\u003E\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"font-family: \u0026quot;calibri\u0026quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;\"\u003E\u003Cspan lang=\"\"\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd style=\"border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-image: initial; border-left: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-right: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-style: none solid solid; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 220.5pt;\" valign=\"top\" width=\"294\"\u003E\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"font-family: \u0026quot;calibri\u0026quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan lang=\"\"\u003EStudent Tuition and Fees\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd style=\"border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-right: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 76.5pt;\" valign=\"top\" width=\"102\"\u003E\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"font-family: \u0026quot;calibri\u0026quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;\"\u003E\u003Cspan lang=\"\"\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp; 775\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd style=\"border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-right: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;\" valign=\"top\" width=\"90\"\u003E\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"font-family: \u0026quot;calibri\u0026quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;\"\u003E\u003Cspan lang=\"\"\u003E14\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd style=\"background-color: #fbe4d5; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-image: initial; border-left: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-right: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-style: none solid solid; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 220.5pt;\" valign=\"top\" width=\"294\"\u003E\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"font-family: \u0026quot;calibri\u0026quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan lang=\"\"\u003EAuxiliary Enterprises\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan lang=\"\"\u003E\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd style=\"background-color: #fbe4d5; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-right: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 76.5pt;\" valign=\"top\" width=\"102\"\u003E\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"font-family: \u0026quot;calibri\u0026quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;\"\u003E\u003Cspan lang=\"\"\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp; 1165\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan lang=\"\"\u003E\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd style=\"background-color: #fbe4d5; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-right: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;\" valign=\"top\" width=\"90\"\u003E\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"font-family: \u0026quot;calibri\u0026quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;\"\u003E\u003Cspan lang=\"\"\u003E61\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan lang=\"\"\u003E\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd style=\"border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-image: initial; border-left: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-right: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-style: none solid solid; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 220.5pt;\" valign=\"top\" width=\"294\"\u003E\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"font-family: \u0026quot;calibri\u0026quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan lang=\"\"\u003EResearch Contracts \u0026amp; Grants\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd style=\"border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-right: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 76.5pt;\" valign=\"top\" width=\"102\"\u003E\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"font-family: \u0026quot;calibri\u0026quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;\"\u003E\u003Cspan lang=\"\"\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp; 779\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd style=\"border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-right: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;\" valign=\"top\" width=\"90\"\u003E\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"font-family: \u0026quot;calibri\u0026quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;\"\u003E\u003Cspan lang=\"\"\u003E12\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd style=\"background-color: #fbe4d5; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-image: initial; border-left: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-right: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-style: none solid solid; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 220.5pt;\" valign=\"top\" width=\"294\"\u003E\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"font-family: \u0026quot;calibri\u0026quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan lang=\"\"\u003EPhilanthropy \u0026amp; Investment Income\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan lang=\"\"\u003E\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd style=\"background-color: #fbe4d5; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-right: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 76.5pt;\" valign=\"top\" width=\"102\"\u003E\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"font-family: \u0026quot;calibri\u0026quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;\"\u003E\u003Cspan lang=\"\"\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;555\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan lang=\"\"\u003E\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd style=\"background-color: #fbe4d5; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-right: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;\" valign=\"top\" width=\"90\"\u003E\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"font-family: \u0026quot;calibri\u0026quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;\"\u003E\u003Cspan lang=\"\"\u003E19\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan lang=\"\"\u003E\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd style=\"border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-image: initial; border-left: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-right: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-style: none solid solid; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 220.5pt;\" valign=\"top\" width=\"294\"\u003E\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"font-family: \u0026quot;calibri\u0026quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan lang=\"\"\u003EMedical Centers\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd style=\"border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-right: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 76.5pt;\" valign=\"top\" width=\"102\"\u003E\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"font-family: \u0026quot;calibri\u0026quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;\"\u003E\u003Cspan lang=\"\"\u003E\u0026nbsp; 2279\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd style=\"border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-right: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;\" valign=\"top\" width=\"90\"\u003E\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"font-family: \u0026quot;calibri\u0026quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;\"\u003E\u003Cspan lang=\"\"\u003E15\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd style=\"background-color: #fbe4d5; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-image: initial; border-left: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-right: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-style: none solid solid; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 220.5pt;\" valign=\"top\" width=\"294\"\u003E\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"font-family: \u0026quot;calibri\u0026quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan lang=\"\"\u003EEducational Activities (esp Clinical Rev)\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan lang=\"\"\u003E\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd style=\"background-color: #fbe4d5; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-right: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 76.5pt;\" valign=\"top\" width=\"102\"\u003E\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"font-family: \u0026quot;calibri\u0026quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;\"\u003E\u003Cspan lang=\"\"\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp; 521\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan lang=\"\"\u003E\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd style=\"background-color: #fbe4d5; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-right: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;\" valign=\"top\" width=\"90\"\u003E\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"font-family: \u0026quot;calibri\u0026quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;\"\u003E\u003Cspan lang=\"\"\u003E12\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan lang=\"\"\u003E\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd style=\"border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-image: initial; border-left: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-right: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-style: none solid solid; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 220.5pt;\" valign=\"top\" width=\"294\"\u003E\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"font-family: \u0026quot;calibri\u0026quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan lang=\"\"\u003EState General Fund Appropriation\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd style=\"border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-right: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 76.5pt;\" valign=\"top\" width=\"102\"\u003E\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"font-family: \u0026quot;calibri\u0026quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;\"\u003E\u003Cspan lang=\"\"\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp; 481\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd style=\"border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-right: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;\" valign=\"top\" width=\"90\"\u003E\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"font-family: \u0026quot;calibri\u0026quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;\"\u003E\u003Cspan lang=\"\"\u003E12\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd style=\"background-color: #fbe4d5; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-image: initial; border-left: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-right: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-style: none solid solid; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 220.5pt;\" valign=\"top\" width=\"294\"\u003E\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"font-family: \u0026quot;calibri\u0026quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan lang=\"\"\u003ETotal Losses\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan lang=\"\"\u003E\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd style=\"background-color: #fbe4d5; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-right: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 76.5pt;\" valign=\"top\" width=\"102\"\u003E\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"font-family: \u0026quot;calibri\u0026quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan lang=\"\"\u003E\u0026nbsp;6555\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan lang=\"\"\u003E\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd style=\"background-color: #fbe4d5; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-right: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;\" valign=\"top\" width=\"90\"\u003E\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"font-family: \u0026quot;calibri\u0026quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan lang=\"\"\u003E16.6\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan lang=\"\"\u003E\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd style=\"border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-image: initial; border-left: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-right: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-style: none solid solid; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 220.5pt;\" valign=\"top\" width=\"294\"\u003E\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"font-family: \u0026quot;calibri\u0026quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan lang=\"\"\u003EProjected 2020-21 UC Revenues\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd style=\"border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-right: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 76.5pt;\" valign=\"top\" width=\"102\"\u003E\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"font-family: \u0026quot;calibri\u0026quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;\"\u003E\u003Cspan lang=\"\"\u003E32,823\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd style=\"border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-right: 1pt solid rgb(244, 176, 131); border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;\" valign=\"top\" width=\"90\"\u003E\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"font-family: \u0026quot;calibri\u0026quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;\"\u003E\u003Cspan lang=\"\"\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\u003Cp\u003EScenario B is a decent guess at one possible program for 2020-21: 17% revenue declines for the UC system overall, and 12% or so for the educational core.\u0026nbsp; Cuts like these would cause major damage to teaching and research, and of course prevent meaningful Covid-19 suppression.\u0026nbsp; If two things happen, first, Covid illness persists for several years, as some medical officials predict, and second, U.S. politics allows economic decline, then UC, like other universities, will be permanently downgraded.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp style=\"text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003EThe Governance Problem\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe Republicans are obviously the biggest problem, but so are Democrats and their governing boards.\u0026nbsp; The Republican donor base sees government as a potentially victorious competitor to business and finance in economic management (through equitable tax policy and regulation but also better social infrastructure and more productive investment).\u0026nbsp; Weak government has enabled today's \"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/delong.typepad.com\/plutonomy-1.pdf\"\u003Eplutonomy\u003C\/a\u003E.\" Republican politicians logically oppose programs that will make government useful, effective, and popular and thus empower their direct rival.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EBut Democrats are also a problem when they reject \u003Ci\u003Eboth\u003C\/i\u003E\u0026nbsp;strong \u003Ci\u003Eand\u003C\/i\u003E weak Keynesianism.\u0026nbsp; In the strong version, public agencies spend massively to reconstruct society on the principle of equal treatment. This would fund a Green New Deal in which, for example, some of our tens of millions of unemployed people would be paid by the government to insulate the country's housing stock, starting with those owned by low-income people. I pointed towards this kind of spending in\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2020\/04\/our-converging-crises-iii-we-need-to.html\"\u003Ean April post\u003C\/a\u003E.\u0026nbsp; Let's call it democratic-socialist Keynesianism, Sanders and AOC-style.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThere's also weak Keynesianism, a very useful combination of FDR and LBJ, in which public agencies spend massive amounts to keep an unjust and unequal status quo economy from imploding.\u0026nbsp; That would include the common-sense goal of keeping the education sector from shedding employees into a non-functional economy by giving schools and colleges stable funding. It would include the UK policy--enacted by the Conservative government--of \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.ifs.org.uk\/publications\/14786\"\u003Ecovering 80% of the salary of laid-off employees\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp;so they can be furloughed rather than fired.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EMainstream Democrats don't exactly oppose this kind of thing. But they don't promote it as their bread and butter. They also don't clearly expose the urgent need for it, or encourage others to expose it. At times, liberal Democrats like John Pérez actively block the creation of a budgetary need for weak Keynesian spending by preventing the open declaration of a budgetary problem.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe current UC Board of Regents is chaired by the former Democrat Speaker of the Assembly. It includes the Democrat Lt.Governor, the husband of California's senior U.S. senator, and several former or current members of two Democratic governors' immediate offices. It also boasts several wealthy and prominent Hollywood liberals.\u0026nbsp; There is really no reason for this group not to activate itself in centrist Keynesian fashion. They would then create an urgent obligation on the part of the state to sustain its educational workforce, infrastructure, and student population, whose lives are currently set to be permanently damaged by the Covid depression.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EI don't understand the complacency that demands the current UC budgetary vagueness in which nothing is true and everything is possible, until the only possibility becomes austerity. It feels like proleptic excuse making--\"we didn't fail to act, because we didn't know.\" I don't understand the lack of ambition, even the bare ambition to keep the rising generation whole. We can \u003Ci\u003Eobviously\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/i\u003Edo that, but it will take much clearer budget work at the level of senior management and governing boards.\u0026nbsp; It will take boards willing to support unprecedented mobilizations of political will for higher education, or at least willing not to block them,\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/feeds\/8385156372853782321\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2020\/07\/our-converging-crises-july-death-drift.html#comment-form","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/1170716682680204889\/posts\/default\/8385156372853782321"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/1170716682680204889\/posts\/default\/8385156372853782321"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2020\/07\/our-converging-crises-july-death-drift.html","title":"Our Converging Crises V:  Weak Democrats and their Governing Boards Feed Austerity Budgets"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Chris Newfield"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/01078395415386100872"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-JKzBHWFaQok\/XzBA9HAjMMI\/AAAAAAAAEqY\/FAjRE0S-4YQfs7CwXOGNEervTie4swl7ACNcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/Budget%2Bfrom%2BState%2BAlcocer%2BRegents%2B0720.png","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1170716682680204889.post-3043768981585794273"},"published":{"$t":"2020-06-28T11:14:00.001-07:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-01-14T07:40:42.076-08:00"},"category":[{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Funding Model"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Public Funding"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Race"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"When Are Access and Inclusion Also Racist? "},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-MXfh1CvLaOA\/XvaaUbMcHDI\/AAAAAAAAEmM\/fFg3caGv9NkiD-FeX74DJjxrTA8w_ulWACNcBGAsYHQ\/s1600\/Napolitano%2BPerez%2BDACA%2BWin%2B061820%2BLAT.png\" style=\"clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"1078\" data-original-width=\"1600\" height=\"215\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-MXfh1CvLaOA\/XvaaUbMcHDI\/AAAAAAAAEmM\/fFg3caGv9NkiD-FeX74DJjxrTA8w_ulWACNcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/Napolitano%2BPerez%2BDACA%2BWin%2B061820%2BLAT.png\" width=\"320\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EAnswer: when students of color get access to and are included in a university that has become inferior to that built for whites.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis can happen across universities, or across campuses in a university system, or across disciplines on a campus, or across time in one university.\u0026nbsp; Victories for access don't take care of the problem of unequal educational treatment.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis isn't to belittle this month's access victories.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFirst, the University of California Board of Regents voted to \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.insidehighered.com\/admissions\/article\/2020\/05\/26\/university-california-votes-phase-out-sat-and-act\"\u003Ephase out the SAT in admissions\u003C\/a\u003E.\u0026nbsp; This will push UC and others towards the holistic, qualitative assessment of candidates that they should have been practicing since the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.law.cornell.edu\/supremecourt\/text\/438\/265\"\u003EBakke decision of 1978\u003C\/a\u003E.\u0026nbsp; It's true that the Academic Senate's \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/senate.universityofcalifornia.edu\/_files\/underreview\/sttf-report.pdf\"\u003Ereport\u003C\/a\u003E suggests this isn't a magic bullet for increasing the presence of underrepresented minority (URM) students. It's also true that the decision was not good for faculty governance (see John Douglass's \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/cshe.berkeley.edu\/sites\/default\/files\/rops.cshe_.8.2020.douglass.ucvssat_briefhistory.6.25.2020.pdf\"\u003Enew paper \u003C\/a\u003Eon both points). All I'll note here is that the SAT is not just a test. It's an ideology, one that has consistently and wrongly claimed that racial inclusion lowers academic quality.\u0026nbsp; Politicians have used SAT scores to make whites think that widening access victimizes them.\u0026nbsp; It has been a technology of racial resentment that has helped unmake the public university. (\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.hup.harvard.edu\/catalog.php?isbn=9780674060364\u0026amp;content=toc\"\u003ESee chapters 3-7\u003C\/a\u003E in my book of that name for an extended discussion of the structural racism of what I called \u003Ci\u003Erank meritocracy\u003C\/i\u003E, featuring 1990s Gov. Pete Wilson's use of SAT scores to induce the UC Regents to ban affirmative action.)\u0026nbsp; The SAT's suspension is a real victory for cross-racial access.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe same can be said of the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.insidehighered.com\/news\/2020\/06\/19\/supreme-court-rules-trump-administration-cannot-immediately-end-daca\"\u003Etemporary reprieve for the DACA program \u003C\/a\u003Ewon by a \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.supremecourt.gov\/opinions\/19pdf\/18-587_5ifl.pdf\"\u003EUC lawsuit.\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp; UC president Janet Napolitano and Board of Regents chair John Pérez \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/california\/story\/2020-06-18\/after-high-court-daca-decision-uc-vows-to-push-forward-with-support-for-immigrant\"\u003Enoted that UC would continue to fight for full access\u003C\/a\u003E to UC and to financial aid, legal services, and other support systems for undocumented students brought to the US as children. \u0026nbsp; \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\"tr_bq\"\u003ESuch actions “expressed the desire of those of us in California to make  sure that we expanded opportunity and worked towards broad-based  immigration reform as well,” Pérez said.\u0026nbsp; And so I think it would be no surprise to anybody that this university  is going to continue to commit itself to representing the interest of  all our students.\" \u003C\/blockquote\u003EThis is another access victory, which universities will need to work to sustain.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAnd yet access raises the question, access to what? What is the university that Napolitano and Pérez, as those most responsible for UC's finances, offer access to?\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn brief, they offer today's students access to an underfunded UC.\u0026nbsp; Today's increased proportion of undocumented, first generation, low-income, immigrant, and URM students have fewer educational and related resources than did the cohorts that came before.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EI documented this in a recent post.\u0026nbsp; Even after today's students pay a multiple of the tuition paid by students twenty years ago, \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/bit.ly\/3d1CtZP\"\u003Etheir UC of 2020 has sixty percent of the net per-student funding compared to that earlier UC\u003C\/a\u003E.\u0026nbsp; I noted that Pérez, as Assembly Speaker, was a\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2013\/01\/privatization-hits-wall.html\"\u003Eleading enforcer of this austerity.\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBut is this negative funding pattern a racial pattern? We can check by comparing the share of white students at UC to the share of state income the government allocates to the university.\u0026nbsp; \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-UeL1r9ZGNUI\/XvaXpNA8xbI\/AAAAAAAAEmA\/m1jByIpsifIonLcT9IwJGWrNJ_D2NcEmQCNcBGAsYHQ\/s1600\/White%2BShare%2BUC%2BEnroll%2Bx%2BState%2BGF%2B0620.png\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"916\" data-original-width=\"1600\" height=\"366\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-UeL1r9ZGNUI\/XvaXpNA8xbI\/AAAAAAAAEmA\/m1jByIpsifIonLcT9IwJGWrNJ_D2NcEmQCNcBGAsYHQ\/s640\/White%2BShare%2BUC%2BEnroll%2Bx%2BState%2BGF%2B0620.png\" width=\"640\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EThe state's politicians have defunded UC in the \u003Ci\u003Eexact\u003C\/i\u003E proportion of its decline in white student share.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis is not a coordinated intention, but it has happened anyway. White enrollment and funding go down hand in hand--except when funding goes down faster during major economic downturns. Republican and Democratic leaders give diverse UC less money than they gave a comparatively white UC. \u003Ci\u003EThis\u003C\/i\u003E is what racist inclusion looks like.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EHigher ed funding expresses systemic racism, even as most members of college communities oppose it.\u0026nbsp; We've seen \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/cew.georgetown.edu\/cew-reports\/separate-unequal\/\"\u003Ethe national pattern of \"separate but unequal\" \u003C\/a\u003Ein  which most new white students go to selective colleges while most new students of color go to open access colleges--which have less money and  lower graduation rates. We've seen the UC campuses with\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2012\/01\/racial-patterns-of-campus-budget.html\"\u003E higher shares of students of color get less funding from UCOP\u003C\/a\u003E. (\"Rebenching\" did not fully fix this).\u0026nbsp; In our UC system case, we see California state leaders--including leaders of racialized, educationally underserved communities--coming up with excuses, year after year, to fund UC in \u003Ci\u003Einverse\u003C\/i\u003E proportion to its diversity.\u0026nbsp; \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOne can be consciously anti-racist while supporting systemic racism.\u0026nbsp; This is a pattern in U.S. political life. The pattern is top-down austerity management for institutions devoted to racial equality and related forms of social justice.\u0026nbsp; While politicians of both major parties have deregulated and de-taxed the private sector, they have applied austerity to public institutions, which offer reduced quality of service to populations that are often minority-majority.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe historian Elizabeth Hinton recently outlined \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/06\/02\/opinion\/george-floyd-protests-1960s.html\"\u003Ethe longer-term pattern:\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"margin-left: 0.5in;\"\u003EPresident Lyndon B. Johnson recognized the role police brutality and socioeconomic inequality played in urban uprisings when he convened the Kerner Commission in 1967. Its report warned that if American political and economic institutions failed to commit resources “sufficient to make a dramatic, visible impact on life in the urban ghetto,” the nation would become increasingly divided along racial lines and plagued by inequality — a “spiral” of segregation, violence and police force. \u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"MsoNormal\"\u003EThough the Kerner Commission and much subsequent research created \"blueprints\" for changing the “socioeconomic conditions that led to [George] Floyd’s premature death,” these research blueprints were never implemented.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"margin-left: 0.5in;\"\u003EThe tragedy of the war on poverty is that the promise of grass-roots empowerment and representation was not sustained on a wider level, or for entire communities, but only for individuals. While remnants of critical reforms are still with us, like the Head Start program, on the whole policymakers at all levels believed “maximum feasible participation” worked against their self-interest. By 1965, as many promising grass-roots initiatives began to receive the initial [Office of Economic Opportunity] grants, they were required to design programs with public officials and municipal authorities in top-level positions. Soon after, policymakers defunded and dissolved anti-poverty programs. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EUC isn't being dissolved.\u0026nbsp; But it is being steadily defunded.\u0026nbsp; Napolitano and her OP, Pérez and his regents, aren't openly opposing the most likely scenario for the state portion of UC's 2020-21 budget--a net 7 percent cut from 2019-20's level, or -$260.8 million. This cut to the permanent budget would happen in a year when Covid-19 health and safety could \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/theconversation.com\/going-online-due-to-covid-19-this-fall-could-hurt-colleges-future-138926\"\u003Eadd at least $1 billion to the system's costs. \u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe long defunding has reduced the power and vitality of UC grassroots--for example,  of the academic departments with a fraction of their former funding for  speakers and internal research, which now depend on the accident of  private donations. Similarly, UC's equivalent of anti-poverty  programs--for students facing food insecurity, housing insecurity, and  mental health issues--are also funded at a fraction of estimated need.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EReplicating the other key post-Kerner retrenchment, UC governance is more top-down than ever. On the important matter of selecting the new president, the Board excluded the Academic Advisory Committee from basic participation in the search for the new president: even its Chair was \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/senate.universityofcalifornia.edu\/_files\/reports\/assembly-resolution-presidential-search.pdf\"\u003Enot allowed to attend selection committee meetings.\u003C\/a\u003E UCOP treated the UCSC wildcat COLA strike as a breach of contract discipline rather than as a desperate attempt to communicate basic needs. Participants still face disciplinary charges at Santa Cruz \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2020\/05\/ucsc-assistant-professor-letter-to.html\"\u003Ein spite of faculty objections\u003C\/a\u003E. The Board of Regents remain literally inaccessible to faculty, who may not address the Board except through the president (\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/regents.universityofcalifornia.edu\/governance\/standing-orders\/so1052.html\"\u003EStanding Order 105.2(e)\u003C\/a\u003E).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EJerry Brown, Gavin Newsom, Janet Napolitano, John Pérez, and their  legislative comrades have replicated in higher ed the strategy that 1960s politicians applied\u0026nbsp; to cities after Black uprisings against police violence and racist  underdevelopment.\u0026nbsp; They have expressed support for their developmentalist  institutions while taking money and power out of them.\u0026nbsp; Of course the  social damage done by underfunding public services for Black and other  communities has been far greater than that wrought by underfunding of  public universities.\u0026nbsp; But the practices are analogous. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe public university funding model is \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/jhupbooks.press.jhu.edu\/title\/great-mistake\"\u003Ebroken\u003C\/a\u003E--and  racist.\u0026nbsp; More inclusion as such won't fix that. Funding parity will fix  it.\u0026nbsp; That means\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/66fix.org\/\"\u003E the 66 Dollar Fix \u003C\/a\u003Eor some similar Covid-era stimulus funding that gets per-student resources to the benchmark established for white UC."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/feeds\/3043768981585794273\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2020\/06\/when-are-access-and-inclusion-also.html#comment-form","title":"2 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/1170716682680204889\/posts\/default\/3043768981585794273"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/1170716682680204889\/posts\/default\/3043768981585794273"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2020\/06\/when-are-access-and-inclusion-also.html","title":"When Are Access and Inclusion Also Racist? "}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Chris Newfield"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/01078395415386100872"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-MXfh1CvLaOA\/XvaaUbMcHDI\/AAAAAAAAEmM\/fFg3caGv9NkiD-FeX74DJjxrTA8w_ulWACNcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/Napolitano%2BPerez%2BDACA%2BWin%2B061820%2BLAT.png","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"2"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1170716682680204889.post-4735964470946713045"},"published":{"$t":"2020-05-24T11:01:00.003-07:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-01-15T03:19:48.913-08:00"},"category":[{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Budget"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Cuts"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Public Funding"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Why Public Universities Can't Take New Cuts: The Essential Charts"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-HpJ9QXYTGRQ\/Xsq9fDqnGuI\/AAAAAAAAEhg\/M7LH9nlB1XABPBcBX4C2QjYsDXVDqnD6gCPcBGAYYCw\/s1600\/852f22564b4cea72ef76d1f57edf5cac.jpg\" style=\"clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"407\" data-original-width=\"610\" height=\"213\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-HpJ9QXYTGRQ\/Xsq9fDqnGuI\/AAAAAAAAEhg\/M7LH9nlB1XABPBcBX4C2QjYsDXVDqnD6gCPcBGAYYCw\/s320\/852f22564b4cea72ef76d1f57edf5cac.jpg\" width=\"320\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EShould university officials be fatalistic about Covid-powered cuts to their core educational budgets?\u0026nbsp; Or should they work 24\/7 on their state governments to keep their current budgets whole?\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EWhat about state governments? Should they \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.insidehighered.com\/news\/2020\/04\/13\/public-colleges-face-looming-financial-blow-state-budget-cuts\"\u003Ecut higher ed yet again\u003C\/a\u003E, as various governors are doing (\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/nj.gov\/governor\/news\/news\/562020\/approved\/20200522c.shtml\"\u003ENew Jersey\u003C\/a\u003E, \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.insidehighered.com\/quicktakes\/2020\/05\/06\/ohio-cut-public-college-funding-110-million-over-2-months\"\u003EOhio\u003C\/a\u003E), and as Gavin \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.insidehighered.com\/quicktakes\/2020\/05\/06\/ohio-cut-public-college-funding-110-million-over-2-months\"\u003ENewsom proposes\u003C\/a\u003E in California?\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis post investigates the budget case for a zero-cuts policy.\u0026nbsp; If your state's public colleges and universities have an ample base budget, you can make some temporary cuts to their state funding. If they are already bare bones, further budget cuts will cut educational quality.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003E0. Why The History?\u003C\/b\u003E \u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThere are lots of ways to use numbers as proxies for teaching and research quality.\u0026nbsp; Most are bad. A pretty good one for teaching is instructional expenditures per student. To help state governments understand quality, departments could establish a set of minimum practices, then cost them out. \u0026nbsp; Campuses could figure out what their budgets must be to meet these standards. But departments haven't been invited to build the budget that would meet their needs.\u0026nbsp; And the averages for instructional expenditure that have been used by my case study here, the University of California system, \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.ocf.berkeley.edu\/~schwrtz\/DCAM16.pdf\"\u003Earen't reliable\u003C\/a\u003E. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EInstead, I'll use historical budget trends as quality proxies.\u0026nbsp; I do this for two reasons.\u0026nbsp; First, the history of the state's relationship to UC controls what the state thinks UC should have.\u0026nbsp; This is a strained history and it still matters.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESecond, UC's budget history expresses the idea that public universities could and should be as good as elite private universities.\u0026nbsp; Public university students should be roughly equal to private university students. The same was to be true of their faculties.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EHistorical budgets expressed this \u003Ci\u003Easpiration\u003C\/i\u003E for equality through public quality.\u0026nbsp;  A detailed Senate report I co-authored identified this proxy for full quality as \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/senate.universityofcalifornia.edu\/_files\/reports\/AC.Futures.Rpt.0107.pdf\"\u003EUC's 1990 budget\u003C\/a\u003E. Strong budgets expressed the quality aspiration in reality as well as in theory.\u0026nbsp; For example, previous, higher levels of public funding for UC campuses had enabled most of them to become members of the American Association of Universities, a group of North America's strongest research universities. Nearly all did this while tuition was still very low and with negligible per-student endowments.\u0026nbsp; This taught an important general lesson: Great academic quality came as readily from public support as from private capital. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EQuality wasn't just about prestige, but also about social effects.\u0026nbsp; Public universities were to educate students as well as private universities did.\u0026nbsp; There were always resource differences (though not today's resource abyss), so let's put it this way: students were not to have to accept lower cognitive benefits from their B.A. by getting it from UC Irvine instead of from Occidental College.\u0026nbsp; UCI students had more courses in large-lecture format, so UCI had also to be able to afford lots of small courses too.\u0026nbsp; Occidental College seniors could write a thesis that taught them how to produce as well as consume knowledge.\u0026nbsp; So UCI had to offer undergraduate research experiences.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe same was true in research: major public universities were\u0026nbsp; to be as good as the elite privates (Berkeley and Stanford, Urbana-Champaign and the University of Chicago, Chapel Hill and Duke, Rutgers and Princeton, etc.).\u0026nbsp; Public university doctoral and professional degrees needed to be roughly comparable to private university degrees--or at least not in different leagues. The idea was to have proverbial world-class research going on at several hundred research universities rather than mainly at 16 Ivy League universities and their wealthy equivalents. Public universities needed \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2014\/08\/how-can-public-research-universities.html\"\u003Eplenty of internal funds to support research\u003C\/a\u003E.\u0026nbsp; It was a national priority to have millions of really good thinkers and hundreds of really good research sites. The dominant political culture assumed these two things--widespread intelligence, abundant research--were essential for democracy, progress, and justice.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESo to put the large public system on a clearly inferior resource tier was understood to be economically suboptimal and also unjust.\u0026nbsp; This was particularly clear in the wake of civil rights movements as economic inequality grew and many K-12 school systems became minority-majority--while generally giving the least funds to districts with the highest shares of Black and brown students.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EHow are state legislatures doing with keeping public universities in the mix? Here are some charts to show what's happened in California. They come in three sections: UC Core Revenues, the State's Point of View, and What UC Really Has Left.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp; They track funding from the turn of the century.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003E1. UC's Core State Revenues\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFigure A looks at what's happened to the state's allocation to the University of California.\u0026nbsp; This is money that generally follows resident students.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn Figure A you'll see 3 lines. The \u003Cu\u003Eblue line\u003C\/u\u003E is a benchmark, tracking growth in state per-capita  income.\u0026nbsp; This measures the strength of the economy as it exists in  people's pockets.\u0026nbsp; It goes up 4-5 percent a year most of the time.\u0026nbsp; If a state wanted to fund an agency\u003Ci\u003E \u003C\/i\u003Ein an \u003Ci\u003Eaverage \u003C\/i\u003Eway,  it would  make that agency's revenues rise at the same rate as per-capita income. In this case, the legislature isn't treating it as essential or special, but just letting UC or CSU or  public health or transportation grow with the state. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EUC enrollment did not stay flat through this period, but increased by about 50 percent. The \u003Cu\u003Eyellow line\u003C\/u\u003E takes the per-capita income benchmark and corrects it for actual UC student growth.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe \u003Cu\u003Ered line\u003C\/u\u003E tracks the state's actual general fund allocation in nominal dollars, not corrected for inflation.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EFigure A: State Funds for UC in Nominal Dollars, Compared to Per-Capita Income Benchmark, and Benchmark Corrected for Enrollment Growth\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-7UqDCbeN8n4\/Xsm3Xp1iaOI\/AAAAAAAAEfs\/eLAHQAiap7YADvdK3g7jf1pJGrKbSlFPwCNcBGAsYHQ\/s1600\/Chart%2B1%2BFinal%2B052320.png\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"830\" data-original-width=\"1386\" height=\"238\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-7UqDCbeN8n4\/Xsm3Xp1iaOI\/AAAAAAAAEfs\/eLAHQAiap7YADvdK3g7jf1pJGrKbSlFPwCNcBGAsYHQ\/s400\/Chart%2B1%2BFinal%2B052320.png\" width=\"400\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe story is clear. The state's allocation fell far behind state income growth.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIf UC's state funding had kept up with state per-capita income (blue  line), its 2019-20 allocation would have been $6.6 billion--not the $3.7  billion it actually got.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIf UC's state funding had  kept up with this benchmark corrected for 50 percent enrollment growth  (yellow line), its current-year allocation would be $10 billion--nearly 3  times more than it received.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESometimes people explain this low state allocation by saying the state population just doesn't have the money. That's not true.\u0026nbsp; The state population had the money to spend on UC (or CSU), but spent it elsewhere.\u0026nbsp; 2017-18 was the first year that UC got a higher state allocation than its state allocation in 2001-02 ($3.28 billion).\u0026nbsp; (2007-08 was the sole exception, at $3.39 billion.)\u0026nbsp; These nominal dollars don't reflect cumulative inflation, which has been around 46 percent.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn other words, for twenty years, the State of California has gotten all UC enrollment growth and all of its cost increases for free. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOn to another chart. Sometimes people say, \"well, the whole public sector has been falling behind.\"\u0026nbsp; That's also untrue.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003Cb\u003EFigure B: Adding California State Budget Growth to Figure A\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-wTXJxVn7vWM\/XsnCaKFCiwI\/AAAAAAAAEf4\/TLouA8Dn0v0Sgf2COSHVjTSXdxiQzpnlQCNcBGAsYHQ\/s1600\/Chart%2B1%2BFinal%2B052320%2BWith%2BState%2BBudget.png\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"830\" data-original-width=\"1380\" height=\"240\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-wTXJxVn7vWM\/XsnCaKFCiwI\/AAAAAAAAEf4\/TLouA8Dn0v0Sgf2COSHVjTSXdxiQzpnlQCNcBGAsYHQ\/s400\/Chart%2B1%2BFinal%2B052320%2BWith%2BState%2BBudget.png\" width=\"400\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/b\u003EThe \u003Cu\u003Epurple line\u003C\/u\u003E is the California state budget (right-hand scale).\u0026nbsp; State government--health, corrections, transportation, K-12 education, etc--has grown at around the same rate as personal income.\u0026nbsp; California doesn't have an exceptional government, measured by growth rates.\u0026nbsp; It has an average-growth government--except for higher education, which state government has pushed well below other agencies.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003E2. The State's Point of View\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EState officials will often say that Figures A and B are misleading because they leave out UC's other revenues, especially tuition.\u0026nbsp; The state has in the past \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2011\/07\/annoying-results-of-state-audit-of-uc.html\"\u003Eclaimed that student tuition is actually state funding\u003C\/a\u003E.\u0026nbsp; The more plausible claim is that UC tuition hikes have offset state funding cuts.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn a January 2013 UC Board of Regents meeting, a state official \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2013\/01\/privatization-hits-wall.html\"\u003Emade the point this way\u003C\/a\u003E:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\"tr_bq\"\u003EThe possibility of increased funding right now: it doesn't exist. . .  .There is no significant amount of money to backfill previous cuts.  We've made roughly $900 million in cuts and you've increased fees $1.4  billion dollars. The [fee] increases were disproportionate to the level  of disinvestment by the state.\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/blockquote\u003EHe was accurately using Department of Finance \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.ebudget.ca.gov\/2013-14\/pdf\/BudgetSummary\/HigherEducation.pdf\"\u003Edata\u003C\/a\u003E to say that UC had $500 million more in \u003Ci\u003Egross\u003C\/i\u003E tuition revenue than the amount of the 2011-12 cut.\u0026nbsp; The official was state Assembly Speaker John A. Pérez.\u0026nbsp; Pérez, who helped install the UC tuition freeze, now serves as chair of the UC Board of Regents.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ETo represent the state's understanding, Figure C adds a \u003Cu\u003Egreen line\u003C\/u\u003E that represents UC core educational revenues.\u0026nbsp; These are about a quarter of UC's total budget (no medical centers, auxiliaries, or extramural grant funding (\"direct costs\").\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp; The main revenue sources are state general funding, but now with various kinds of tuition added in (resident tuition, non-resident supplemental tuition, abbreviated as NRST, which mostly international students, and also the state funds that go to UC via the Cal Grants program that eligible students use to pay some of their tuition.\u0026nbsp; 1\/3rd of gross resident tuition is \"return-to-aid,\" meaning that it cannot be used as operating revenue because it is converted into financial aid. There's also some indirect cost recovery funds and other bits and bobs that the core uses.\u0026nbsp; Take a look.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EFigure C: UC Gross Core Revenues, Including Various Forms of Student Tuition and Related Funds\u003C\/b\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-ZkMYYXAIvOw\/XsnR4yiVNgI\/AAAAAAAAEgQ\/em_VmKComr0Q1rqRC5wfR_ZlLia4Yq2CgCNcBGAsYHQ\/s1600\/Chart%2BC%2BFinal%2B052320%2BWith%2BTuition.png\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"808\" data-original-width=\"1600\" height=\"201\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-ZkMYYXAIvOw\/XsnR4yiVNgI\/AAAAAAAAEgQ\/em_VmKComr0Q1rqRC5wfR_ZlLia4Yq2CgCNcBGAsYHQ\/s400\/Chart%2BC%2BFinal%2B052320%2BWith%2BTuition.png\" width=\"400\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe green line is a lot better than the red.\u0026nbsp; UC gross core revenues grow  faster than the income benchmark. Core revenues (mainly state funding plus various tuition streams) do a somewhat  decent job of keeping up with enrollment growth at the benchmarked level  (the yellow line).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EYou might be wondering about the widening gap between the yellow and green lines in recent years: it reflects the  \"surge\" of unfunded or underfunded resident students the state forced UC  to take to make up for the previous growth in non-resident enrollments.\u0026nbsp; This is a key source of the \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2019\/11\/after-successful-pursuit-of-private.html\"\u003Edeficits many UC campuses were projecting\u003C\/a\u003E even before the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESo here, it looks like the state has a point. UC's educational core has much better revenues than the state general fund calculation (Figures A and B) suggests.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis does \u003Ci\u003Enot\u003C\/i\u003E change the fact that the state has been free-riding for growth and upgrades on students, and also on other UC revenues.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBut it looks like UC's \u003Ci\u003Egross\u003C\/i\u003E core revenues have at least kept up with state income growth, and slightly beaten inflation.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003E3. What UC Really Has Left\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EHere's the problem with the state's point of view: while it was cutting or eroding the general fund allocation, the state also decided not to pay for lots of other things. The two biggest unfunded costs are (i) capital projects and (ii) that part of total compensation known as the University of California Retirement Program (UCRP).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn contrast to previous practice, UC now has to build its own buildings with a combination of University-based borrowing, private donations, and internal operating revenues.\u0026nbsp; This is the case both on the campuses and at the medical centers.\u0026nbsp; The state acknowledged the situation with legislation, AB 94, that allows campuses to use state funding to pay interest on debt.\u0026nbsp; That isn't additional money, just permission to use existing funds for debt that the state used to pay.\u0026nbsp; Three familiar symptoms are chronic student overcrowding, inadequate office and research space, and campus disrepair across the UC system.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe \"pension holiday\" from 1991-2010 was also a payment holiday for the State of California, which saved many billions of dollars over the years.\u0026nbsp; The state is the only beneficiary of that ill-advised break that has not started to make payments again.\u0026nbsp; Thus the employer contribution to UCRP comes out of UC operating funds as  well.\u0026nbsp; \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFigure D deducts employer pension costs and capital projects costs from UC's gross\u003Ci\u003E \u003C\/i\u003Ecore revenues. There are many ways to calculate both, and I tried nearly all that I could think of, in consultation with several other longtime budget observers.\u0026nbsp; This figure uses a UCOP report (without the underlying data) for UCRP costs (\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.ucop.edu\/operating-budget\/_files\/rbudget\/2019-20-budget-detail.pdf\"\u003EDisplay XIX-6, p 159\u003C\/a\u003E).\u0026nbsp; Capital projects costs were based on campus-by-campus calculations of operating revenues allocated to capital projects in each individual year.\u0026nbsp; This variant, Figure D, shows the highest net revenues of all the methods, so you should see it as a best case for the state's funding practice.\u0026nbsp; Watch the \u003Cu\u003Egreen line.\u003C\/u\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EFigure D: UC Net Core Revenues (Core Revenues with Endowment Revenues, minus Employer Share of UCRP Contributions and Campus Funds Used for Capital Projects)\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-3zeRaLgKZBE\/XsqTMhesHPI\/AAAAAAAAEg0\/p0T9WqigVS0QRHvAzYfMbiPwj3GnVTDvQCNcBGAsYHQ\/s1600\/Chart%2BD%2B052320%2BUCOP%2BVersion.png\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"844\" data-original-width=\"1600\" height=\"210\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-3zeRaLgKZBE\/XsqTMhesHPI\/AAAAAAAAEg0\/p0T9WqigVS0QRHvAzYfMbiPwj3GnVTDvQCNcBGAsYHQ\/s400\/Chart%2BD%2B052320%2BUCOP%2BVersion.png\" width=\"400\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMost of the tuition revenue gains in Figure C are canceled by the state's withdrawal from capital projects and by its non-contribution to pension costs. UC revenues have not kept up with the income benchmark.\u0026nbsp; In some years, net core educational revenues are close to the flatlined state general fund allocation.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe University of California comes into the Covid crisis with net core educational revenues that are well below historic quality norms.\u0026nbsp; There's no educational surplus lying around to cut.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: center;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003Cb\u003E4. The Insufficient Base for 2020-21\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe anticipated Covid state cuts would be the fourth major round since 1990. But these would be the first without UC's traditional revenue rescue, large tuition hikes. (Existing UC reserves are a separate matter that are outside my scope here.)\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe first time the big cuts came, University of California officials assumed they were a one-time event.\u0026nbsp; That was 1992-95.\u0026nbsp; The second time the state cut general fund support for UC and CSU, UC had a plan, which was large tuition increases.\u0026nbsp; That was 2002-5.\u0026nbsp; The \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.sfgate.com\/bayarea\/article\/CALIFORNIA-State-university-deal-a-shocker-to-2759909.php\"\u003Ecompact\u003C\/a\u003E the two systems signed with Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, in 2004, didn't just permit tuition increases of 7-10 percent each year, but required them.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe third time state cuts happened, 2008-12, \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2011\/09\/regents-budget-strategy-stuck-between.html\"\u003Ethe high tuition plan was in place.\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp; But high tuition didn't make it through the cuts cycle.\u0026nbsp; The student protests of fall 2011 effectively ended tuition increases on resident undergraduates. Jerry Brown removed Tuition Plan A, tuition hikes on resident undergraduates. UC then refocused on Tuition Plans B and C: increasing non-resident supplemental tuition (NRST), especially by taking more international students, and growing Self-Supporting Graduate and Professional Degree Program tuition, where UC academic units create for-profit (mostly masters) programs that can charge high tuition to residents and non-residents alike. The regents \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/regents.universityofcalifornia.edu\/regmeet\/may17\/b1.pdf\"\u003Ecapped Tuition Plan B in 2017\u003C\/a\u003E, and Plan C is unlikely to survive the pandemic.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAs you can see in Figure D above, UC's net revenues have stagnated for 20 years, have not kept up with the income benchmark, and are far behind enrollment growth.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EState cuts and quiet general fund erosion have already lowered UC quality. They have lowered it specifically for the most economically and racially diverse population in California memory.\u0026nbsp; Sacramento's funding practice gives much less per-student educational funding to today's students-of-color majority than it gave to their majority white predecessors a generation ago--even \u003Ci\u003Eafter\u003C\/i\u003E we count revenues from tripled in-state tuition.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis losing battle has taken place in a state that has seen one of the  most intense accumulations of wealth in recorded history.\u0026nbsp; We don't expect Google and Apple to support high quality higher ed for all. But we do expect state government to do that.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2020\/05\/our-converging-crises-iv-democrat.html\"\u003EAny state revenue cuts\u003C\/a\u003E now will directly cut UC quality again.\u0026nbsp; This time, the damage may be irreversible.\u0026nbsp; State government must now reverse the chronic underfunding policy of recent decades. It must keep UC (and CSU) whole for the sake of the state.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003EAPPENDIX\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EFigure E: Version 2 of Figure D--UC Net Core Revenues (Core Revenues with Endowment Revenues, minus  Employer Share of UCRP Contributions and Campus Funds Used for Capital  Projects) \u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-cU7L0niT5qY\/XsnYX2vU5HI\/AAAAAAAAEgo\/rHaP7mBb2IQFmdwlWdLX97vdFVsAPSfLgCNcBGAsYHQ\/s1600\/Chart%2BE-2%2B052320%2BAccural.png\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"798\" data-original-width=\"1524\" height=\"208\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-cU7L0niT5qY\/XsnYX2vU5HI\/AAAAAAAAEgo\/rHaP7mBb2IQFmdwlWdLX97vdFVsAPSfLgCNcBGAsYHQ\/s400\/Chart%2BE-2%2B052320%2BAccural.png\" width=\"400\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EMany thanks to Minh Hua, the RA with inexhaustible spreadsheet stamina. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/feeds\/4735964470946713045\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2020\/05\/why-public-universities-cant-take-new.html#comment-form","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/1170716682680204889\/posts\/default\/4735964470946713045"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/1170716682680204889\/posts\/default\/4735964470946713045"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2020\/05\/why-public-universities-cant-take-new.html","title":"Why Public Universities Can't Take New Cuts: The Essential Charts"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Chris Newfield"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/01078395415386100872"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-HpJ9QXYTGRQ\/Xsq9fDqnGuI\/AAAAAAAAEhg\/M7LH9nlB1XABPBcBX4C2QjYsDXVDqnD6gCPcBGAYYCw\/s72-c\/852f22564b4cea72ef76d1f57edf5cac.jpg","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1170716682680204889.post-4757279753696169402"},"published":{"$t":"2020-05-15T13:01:00.003-07:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-12-13T03:29:48.450-08:00"},"category":[{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Cuts"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Newsom"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Public Funding"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Our Converging Crises IV: Democrat Hoovernomics  (Updated May 19th)"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-9fAzcsMbIAc\/Xr421NwxOGI\/AAAAAAAAEe8\/XAFOAMIeqq0KqakpWoF8uQwdQzZGynNxQCNcBGAsYHQ\/s1600\/Austerity%2BOsborne.jpg\" style=\"clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"418\" data-original-width=\"580\" height=\"230\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-9fAzcsMbIAc\/Xr421NwxOGI\/AAAAAAAAEe8\/XAFOAMIeqq0KqakpWoF8uQwdQzZGynNxQCNcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/Austerity%2BOsborne.jpg\" width=\"320\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EIts a simple story, as budget stories really are.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn 2019-20, the University of California received $3.724 billion of its revenues from the Golden State. That was a bit under ten percent of UC's gross revenues, budgeted to be $38.394 billion.\u0026nbsp; \"Core\" revenues on the campuses are about a quarter of that. The rest are medical centers and revenues from auxiliaries like housing.\u0026nbsp; That means that state general funds are about 40 percent of UC's educational core. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn November, the UC Office of the President got the Board of Regents to ask for an increase.\u0026nbsp; The base increase was a bit over $264 million.\u0026nbsp; Throw in some other line items, like paying for undergraduate enrollment growth !!, and you had $447 million in requested increases.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIt looked ambitious, but it wasn't, for reasons of withdrawn one-time funds, etc.\u0026nbsp; It was a treading- water budget. Most campuses were already \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2019\/11\/after-successful-pursuit-of-private.html\"\u003Eprojecting structural deficits in a couple of years\u003C\/a\u003E, even after years of good-pupil pursuit of non-public revenue streams like international students and for-profit masters programs.\u0026nbsp; The system projected a deficit as well. Base conditions on the campuses have long been bad--a whole concealed story in itself--and these increases kept this status quo.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis was\u0026nbsp; too rich for Gov Gavin Newsom.\u0026nbsp; In January, he offered UC half of its request - $217 million. It was a deed of anti-chivalry I heralded in my \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2020\/02\/budget-strategy-poem.html\"\u003Ebudget poem\u003C\/a\u003E.\u0026nbsp; Then Covid-19 arrived and swept across the land.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ELike every other university, and like every hospital system, UC took massive hits. Half were to the medical center, and half were to the campuses, more or less. The campuses had big losses in housing and dining as those were mostly emptied out. UC hospitals emptied beds and other facilities expecting a Covid-19 flood.\u0026nbsp; Long story short, UC projects total losses of $2.7 billion -- by June 30, 2020, for the current fiscal year.\u0026nbsp; Teresa Watanabe's story in the LA \u003Ci\u003ETimes\u003C\/i\u003E was rightly titled, \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/california\/story\/2020-04-16\/uc-reeling-under-staggering-coronavirus-costs-the-worst-impacts-all-at-once\"\u003E\"UC Reeling Under Staggering Coronovirus Costs.\u003C\/a\u003E'\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe current best case, the thinking goes, is that Covid-19 disrupts UC through Fall 2020 but then normalcy returns. 2021 would then be a fairly normal year-- face-to-face instruction, laboratories at full throttle, much higher cleaning, testing, tracing, and monitoring costs but also normal revenues.\u0026nbsp; In this best case, UC assumed a no-cut state budget.\u0026nbsp; If the state held firm, losses would be \u003Ci\u003Eonly\u003C\/i\u003E another $4.4 billion or so for 2020-21. They would come from lost non-resident tuition and various Covid-19 expenses in the fall (testing, temporary classrooms for social distancing, etc.), and not losses from the state.\u0026nbsp; UC would be out $7 billion or so from March 2020 through end of June 2021, but could possibly cover that with borrowing and additional stimulus funds--emphasis on possibly. That was still at least a 10 percent loss for 2020-21--as the best case.\u0026nbsp; And it depended, to repeat, on a flat state budget -- neither the $447 million nor the $264 million increase, but merely a $0 increase for next year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E$0 was too much for Gavin Newsom. He has now \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.ebudget.ca.gov\/FullBudgetSummary.pdf\"\u003Ecome back again with another cut\u003C\/a\u003E. Rather than just under $4 billion for UC, in the already-reduced January offer, \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.ebudget.ca.gov\/budget\/2020-21MR\/#\/Department\/6440\"\u003ENewsom proposes $3.369 billion\u003C\/a\u003E, down about $629 million, a cut in the state share of 15.72 percent.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis pushes the best-case 2020-21 losses (on the January budget for that year) to more than $5 billion.\u0026nbsp; I'll put this another way.\u0026nbsp; About half of the $4.4 in losses were on the campuses--around $2.2 billion.\u0026nbsp; Newsom's cuts have just increased UC's core campus loses by nearly 30 percent.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EStates are supposed to help their major public systems, not disable them.\u0026nbsp; California forgot this long ago. It has forgotten this most completely with the educational pillars of its storied knowledge economy.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESacramento looks for the cheapest deal, and it has gotten it with the University of California.\u0026nbsp; Newsom's new general fund figure, around $3.4 billion, is about what the state gave UC\u0026nbsp; in 2001-02, two decades ago.\u0026nbsp; Since then, inflation has run 46 percent, and \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.universityofcalifornia.edu\/infocenter\/fall-enrollment-glance\"\u003Eundergraduate enrollments\u003C\/a\u003E are up 52 percent.\u0026nbsp; A \u003Ci\u003Eflat \u003C\/i\u003Estate general fund share for UC, reflecting both, would be \u003Ci\u003E$7.8 billion\u003C\/i\u003E next year. Newsom has decided UC isn't worth even half of that.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn effect, the state is planning yet again to do serious damage to UC quality.\u0026nbsp; Research, doctoral education, undergraduate education, and their basic infrastructure have not recovered from the 2008-11 cuts, and the governor proposes to hit them again.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EI'll just pull out two major issues.\u0026nbsp; UC doctoral students are the backbone of UC teaching and research.\u0026nbsp; Those in private housing need a COLA to afford rent in most UC locations. Where is that money supposed to come from when the UAW contract is renegotiated?\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESecondly, racial disparity.\u0026nbsp; Undergraduate graduation rates vary by race: the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.universityofcalifornia.edu\/infocenter\/ug-outcomes\"\u003E4 year rates\u003C\/a\u003E are 54\/57 percent for African American and Latinx students and 73\/76 percent for white and Asian American students.\u0026nbsp; This is the most rudimentary quality measure--not what did you learn, but simply did you finish--and yet UC lacks the funds to achieve racial parity in basic grad rates.\u0026nbsp; It costs money to (a) make up for weaker preparation coming from California's de facto segregated high schools (many lack 2nd year algebra or calculus, for example); and (b) give enough financial aid to keep poorer students from working too much. State cuts = more racial disparity, plain and simple. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThink of the difference between Newsom's $3.4 billion general fund offer and the inflation-enrollment corrected amount UC should have, $7.8 billion, like this.\u0026nbsp; In 2001, Underrepresented Minority (URM) students were 16 percent of \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.universityofcalifornia.edu\/infocenter\/fall-enrollment-glance\"\u003EUC's undergrad population.\u003C\/a\u003E This year, they are 29 percent.\u0026nbsp; The state now invests half as much in a student body with twice the share of black and brown students.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EEveryone decries this textbook structural racism--the Regents, the governor (\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.ebudget.ca.gov\/FullBudgetSummary.pdf\"\u003Ep 48\u003C\/a\u003E), and every liberal Democrat who also does respectability politics by saying there must be \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/abgt.assembly.ca.gov\/sites\/abgt.assembly.ca.gov\/files\/Budget%20Update%2C%20May%2011%2C%202020%20updated.pdf\"\u003E\"sizable reductions in services\"\u003C\/a\u003E,\u0026nbsp;or saying,\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.sfchronicle.com\/politics\/article\/Rent-breaks-for-a-decade-California-legislators-15265373.php\"\u003E\"a hand up, not a hand out.\"\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp; Herbert Hoover would be proud. If Democrats don't want racial disparity, they should stop producing it with austerity, as though Keynes never lived, the New Deal never happened, civil rights were a chimera, and stimulus funding didn't actually build the country.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIt's economically illiterate for California Democrats to revive Hoovernomics when it will hurt the most. The legislature should reject Newsom's cuts to the state's core systems.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EUPDATE 5.19.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/b\u003E Yesterday, UC president \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/Additionally, Governor Newsom last week announced a revised State budget for 2020-21 that includes a 10 percent funding reduction for UC of $372 million.\"\u003EJanet Napolitano announced a pay freeze\u003C\/a\u003E for \"policy-covered staff employees,\" 10 percent salary cuts for her and the campus chancellors, and the continuation of ladder-faculty merit reviews (the coded language here will need careful parsing, and will probably be implemented somewhat differently on the various campuses).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ETowards the end, she noted,\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\"tr_bq\"\u003EFrom mid-March through April alone, we estimate that systemwide  financial losses totaled nearly $1.2 billion, and\u0026nbsp;we anticipate these  losses will continue to climb in the months ahead. Needless to say, this  significant loss of revenue is having an enormous negative effect on  our budgets. Additionally, Governor Newsom last week announced a revised  State budget for 2020-21 that includes a 10 percent funding reduction  for UC of $372 million.\u003C\/blockquote\u003ENewsom's May cut takes UC down to $3.369 billion.\u0026nbsp; Why does Napolitano describe this as a \u003Ci\u003Eten\u003C\/i\u003E percent cut for 2020-21, not 15.72 percent?\u0026nbsp; It depends on how you count. It's a\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cul\u003E\u003Cli\u003E10 percent cut from 2019-20's general fund appropriation of $3.724 billion.\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003E16 percent cut from Newsom's January budget proposal (\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.ebudget.ca.gov\/budget\/2020-21MR\/#\/Department\/6440\"\u003Esee Dept of Finance\u003C\/a\u003E)\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003E20 percent cut from the UC Regents' November budget proposal (of \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2020\/02\/budget-strategy-poem.html\"\u003E$4.228 billion)\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003C\/li\u003E\u003C\/ul\u003EWith a 20 percent cut, Newsom joins Arnold Schwarzenegger and Jerry Brown in the 20 Percent Higher Ed Cuts Club.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EI don't know why Napolitano is minimizing the size of the state cut, making it seem like half of what it actually is when compared to the University's official request in November.\u0026nbsp; That November request was not large enough to make UC solvent (second budget slide \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2020\/02\/budget-strategy-poem.html\"\u003Ehere\u003C\/a\u003E): many UC campuses were \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2019\/11\/after-successful-pursuit-of-private.html\"\u003Eprojecting deficits\u003C\/a\u003E on its basis.\u0026nbsp; Add in the non-state revenue losses and UC's 2020-21 is an unprecedented budget disaster. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ctable _ngcontent-c2=\"\" class=\"table table-striped table-condensed table-hover table-width\"\u003E\u003Ctbody _ngcontent-c2=\"\"\u003E\u003Ctr _ngcontent-c2=\"\"\u003E\u003Ctd _ngcontent-c2=\"\" class=\"title\"\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd _ngcontent-c2=\"\" class=\"currency janDols\"\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd _ngcontent-c2=\"\" class=\"currency mayDols\"\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd _ngcontent-c2=\"\" class=\"currency mayChgDols\"\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd _ngcontent-c2=\"\" class=\"percent mayChgPercent\"\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/feeds\/4757279753696169402\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2020\/05\/our-converging-crises-iv-democrat.html#comment-form","title":"2 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/1170716682680204889\/posts\/default\/4757279753696169402"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/1170716682680204889\/posts\/default\/4757279753696169402"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2020\/05\/our-converging-crises-iv-democrat.html","title":"Our Converging Crises IV: Democrat Hoovernomics  (Updated May 19th)"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Chris Newfield"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/01078395415386100872"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-9fAzcsMbIAc\/Xr421NwxOGI\/AAAAAAAAEe8\/XAFOAMIeqq0KqakpWoF8uQwdQzZGynNxQCNcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/Austerity%2BOsborne.jpg","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"2"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1170716682680204889.post-2579985297540806749"},"published":{"$t":"2020-05-12T11:08:00.001-07:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-05-12T11:08:28.123-07:00"},"category":[{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Covid-19"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Funding Model"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Public Funding"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"UC Regents"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"UC Regents Face the Covid Crisis: Program Notes"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-1XDxPzaFGdQ\/XrrUhW5V88I\/AAAAAAAAEeM\/Ov9IyF7KgUw38pulZoORXm0u2WtkB_AEACNcBGAsYHQ\/s1600\/financial-armageddon.jpg\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"1200\" data-original-width=\"1200\" height=\"320\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-1XDxPzaFGdQ\/XrrUhW5V88I\/AAAAAAAAEeM\/Ov9IyF7KgUw38pulZoORXm0u2WtkB_AEACNcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/financial-armageddon.jpg\" width=\"320\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003Eby Eric Hays, Executive Director, Council of UC Faculty Associations\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe UC Regents are meeting May 19-21 via Zoom. Agenda materials are now available online \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/regents.universityofcalifornia.edu\/meetings\/agendas\/may20.html\"\u003Ehere\u003C\/a\u003E:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESome highlights follow.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOn Tuesday, May 19th, at 11:30 am, there will be a public comment session followed by the Finance and Capital Strategies Committee discussing major capital projects. Then, at 2:30 pm, the Investments Committee will get an update on how hard hit UC's various investment pools are. The pension fund, for example, is down 12.4 percent in the first quarter of 2020, or down 4% from this time last year. Remember, the assumption is that UCRP will earn on average a 6.75% rate of return (already lowered last Octobeer from an assumed 7.25% return).\u0026nbsp; UC had discussed increasing employee contributions at the time.\u0026nbsp; What will they discuss in the midst of Covid-19?\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EHere's the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/regents.universityofcalifornia.edu\/regmeet\/may20\/i1.pdf\"\u003Efull Investment Committee report.\u003C\/a\u003E It\u0026nbsp; includes information about UC's other major funds, like the endowment and the investment pools. You can find links to the Power Point presentations at the end of that document for more details about each fund.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThen, at 4:30 pm, the Special Committee on Basic Needs will meet to discuss the report they were working on before Covid. UC students were already suffering from food and housing insecurity. What is the situation now? They do have a Covid update agendized, but without any real information.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EWednesday, May 20th, starts with a closed session where the Regents will discuss hiring a new Chancellor for UC Merced.\u0026nbsp; Then it becomes Covid-19 Day.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAt 10 am the Health Service Committee is supposed to hear about the impact of Covid on UC's health services. At least half of UC's projected losses this spring stem from the Medical Centers.\u0026nbsp; But so far there are no details for this item in the agenda.\u0026nbsp; In the Academic and Student Affairs Committee that follows, the agenda material says only,\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\"tr_bq\"\u003EUC campuses are actively involved in scenario planning for the fall, with options ranging from returning to on-campus instruction, continuing remote instruction, or a hybrid of in-person and remote instruction.\u003C\/blockquote\u003ESince UC's recovery depends on opening campuses for instruction, we should look for more detailed planning.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis session will be followed by the Finance and Capital Strategies Committee discussing the impact of Covid on UC revenue. There are some interesting figures here: \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cul\u003E\u003Cli\u003EUC campuses and medical centers had over $14 billion in working capital as of March 31, 2020 – an amount roughly equivalent to 155 days’ cash on hand.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003ELosses to UC in March and April totaled $1.2 billion across the system, including $700 million attributable to the University’s medical centers\u003C\/li\u003E\u003C\/ul\u003EQuantitative information peters out quickly.\u0026nbsp; The agenda describes potential reductions in revenue from tuition or from the state as \"uncertain.\"\u003Cbr \/\u003EThere is more detail about the state's finances \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/regents.universityofcalifornia.edu\/regmeet\/may20\/f7.pdf\"\u003E\u003Cu\u003Ehere\u003C\/u\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\"tr_bq\"\u003EOn May 7, the Department of Finance projected a looming budget deficit of $54.3 billion for the State, including $13.4 billion in the current year and $40.9 billion in 2020-21. (The overall projected deficit is equivalent to nearly 37 percent of budgeted General Fund expenditures in 2019-20.) A report published by the Legislative Analyst’s Office on May 8 projects a deficit ranging from $18 billion to $31 billion... \u003Ci\u003EA significant reduction in ongoing State support for UC in 2020-21 is possible. \u003C\/i\u003EThe timeline and prospects for full restoration of any such cuts could be uncertain for some time. (Even today, State support for the University remains below 2007-08 levels after adjusting for inflation, California resident enrollment growth, and other factors.) (emphasis added)\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThen (and mind you this is still supposedly before lunch on Wednesday) the full board will gather to discuss \"Principles for Responsible Operation of University Locations in Light of COVID-19 Pandemic.\" You can \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/regents.universityofcalifornia.edu\/regmeet\/may20\/b2.pdf\"\u003Eread a roadmap\u003C\/a\u003E to reopen campuses.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAt 1:00 pm, the Finance and Capital Strategies Committee meets to discuss UCOP's budget for next year.\u0026nbsp; UC says they will work really hard to get the 2020-21 Office of the President's \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/regents.universityofcalifornia.edu\/regmeet\/may20\/f8.pdf\"\u003Ebudget down 5% \u003C\/a\u003Efrom the 2019-20 budget.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAt 2:00 pm, the Governance Committee has an agenda item about a review of board member misconduct, but the link to background material is currently broken. The committee will also discuss the policy on appointing the Student Regent. That is followed by some closed sessions.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EWhich brings us to Thursday, the 21st. The full board meets starting at 8:30 am with public comment, followed by further discussion and then finally a vote on an issue that preoccupied the Board during their first remote Covid meeting in March: UC's use of standardized college entrance exams.\u0026nbsp; The use of the SAT\/ACT in admissions has roiled higher education for decades, and UC is no exception.\u0026nbsp; President Napolitano is recommending that the regents suspend the standardized test requirement through 2024, pending a fully revised or new equivalent test. Read all about it \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/regents.universityofcalifornia.edu\/regmeet\/may20\/b4.pdf\"\u003Ehere\u003C\/a\u003E."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/feeds\/2579985297540806749\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2020\/05\/uc-regents-face-covid-crisis-program.html#comment-form","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/1170716682680204889\/posts\/default\/2579985297540806749"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/1170716682680204889\/posts\/default\/2579985297540806749"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2020\/05\/uc-regents-face-covid-crisis-program.html","title":"UC Regents Face the Covid Crisis: Program Notes"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Chris Newfield"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/01078395415386100872"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-1XDxPzaFGdQ\/XrrUhW5V88I\/AAAAAAAAEeM\/Ov9IyF7KgUw38pulZoORXm0u2WtkB_AEACNcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/financial-armageddon.jpg","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1170716682680204889.post-8483702448020178274"},"published":{"$t":"2020-03-22T12:37:00.001-07:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-05-02T12:11:39.332-07:00"},"category":[{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Covid-19"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"health care"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Privatization"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Public Funding"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"public goods"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Public vs. Private"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Quantification"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Research"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Coverging Crises Part I: Covid Shutdown Theory (Updated)"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-18r8nGYwdME\/XnK4bSSRG1I\/AAAAAAAAEYY\/AhRHKmoLlPEvko85bu4gTQsHZ_X2MU93wCNcBGAsYHQ\/s1600\/pandemic-virus-globe.jpg\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"500\" data-original-width=\"750\" height=\"213\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-18r8nGYwdME\/XnK4bSSRG1I\/AAAAAAAAEYY\/AhRHKmoLlPEvko85bu4gTQsHZ_X2MU93wCNcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/pandemic-virus-globe.jpg\" width=\"320\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EShutdowns are now spreading as fast as the coronavirus. On March 19, Gov. Gavin Newsom \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.cdph.ca.gov\/Programs\/CID\/DCDC\/Pages\/Guidance.aspx\"\u003Eordered 40 million Californians to stay home\u003C\/a\u003E, claiming that the infection rate puts the state on track for 25.5 million infections.\u0026nbsp; The order has no end date.\u0026nbsp; New York and other states and counties have since followed suit: by noon on March 21st, \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/news\/world\/75-million-americans-under-virtual-lockdown-after-italy-suffers-huge-n1165591\"\u003E75 million US residents \u003C\/a\u003Ewere under some kind of lockdown.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EIn this post I'm going to talk about what I've learned during a sustained effort to apply analytical expertise to a topic outside of my normal subject areas, as I try to build a base for a series of citizen judgements about health policy, and also the related areas of educational and economic policy that I know more about.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EThis learning process has changed my mind about a number of Covid-related issues: for example, when I learned March 10th of UCSB's shutdown--at the end of my senior seminar, thanks to Jenna, multitasking on her email again!--I was a skeptic about the benefits of widespread closures. Now I'm a believer: I think that widespread social distancing is our only chance to avoid levels of infection that would overwhelm hospitals and clinics and lead to much excess death.\u0026nbsp; At the same time, I'm also more optimistic about reducing infections than I was a week ago.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EThe main part of this post close-reads the one published infection model that I've been able to find-\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.imperial.ac.uk\/media\/imperial-college\/medicine\/sph\/ide\/gida-fellowships\/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf\"\u003ENeil Ferguson et al.'s paper,\u003C\/a\u003E from Imperial College London.\u0026nbsp; The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has not released its modeling, though it was \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/03\/13\/us\/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html?referringSource=articleShare\"\u003Ediscussed in a bootleg version\u003C\/a\u003E by the New York \u003Ci\u003ETimes.\u003C\/i\u003E\u0026nbsp; My caveat up front is that the SARS-CoV-2 infection model I analyze does not offer any certainty about the future. But I will talk about the powers of the suppression regime we've entered into, and how the disease might be made less deadly than many of us now assume.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EAn overview:\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cul\u003E\u003Cli\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EThe policy of virus \u003Ci\u003Esuppression\u003C\/i\u003E does appear to reduce Covid-19's  spread. I'll define this and other terms below, since terminology is all over  the place in media reports. (The one journalist I've found to have \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/03\/20\/opinion\/sunday\/coronavirus-outcomes.html\"\u003Einterviewed Neil Ferguson\u003C\/a\u003E--Nicholas Kristof of the New York \u003Ci\u003ETimes\u003C\/i\u003E--conflates \u003Ci\u003Emitigation\u003C\/i\u003E and \u003Ci\u003Esuppression\u003C\/i\u003E.)\u0026nbsp; Suppression has worked well in South  Korea, Singapore, and post-lockdown Hubei in China when social  distancing is combined with mass testing.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E The U.S. simply does not have the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/california\/story\/2020-03-19\/coronavirus-patients-not-tested-not-counted\"\u003Etesting\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/03\/20\/world\/europe\/coronavirus-testing-world-countries-cities-states.html?searchResultPosition=5\"\u003Ecapability\u003C\/a\u003E to do the most effective form of suppression.\u0026nbsp; (Santa Barbara County has \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2018\/01\/when-we-didnt-burn.html\"\u003Ebrilliant\u003C\/a\u003E and frequently exercised emergency services.\u0026nbsp; As of March 22nd it has \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.independent.com\/2020\/03\/21\/santa-barbara-covid-19-cases-reach-double-digits\/\"\u003E13 confirmed\u003C\/a\u003E Covid-19 cases, a shortage of test kits, and 2\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.independent.com\/2020\/03\/20\/santa-barbara-health-officer-we-now-have-widespread-community-infection\/?fbclid=IwAR2mEkInfekZX_GEc-wDvHFoqYbykIKgOt__YBgRFEQXBxV2O2DB5HzdRZg\"\u003E00 tests out \u003C\/a\u003Ewhose results won't be in for awhile.) The U.S. has not been able to do contact-tracing, which would have allowed a much more efficient form of isolation than the mass version we're doing now.\u0026nbsp; In spite of some encouraging reports of new equipment coming on line, the U.S. is in the midst of what statistician John A. Ioannidis calls an\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.statnews.com\/2020\/03\/17\/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data\/\"\u003E \"evidence fiasco,\"\u003C\/a\u003E and its public health capacities have been downsized (personnel down 20 percent since 2008, according to \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.leftbusinessobserver.com\/Radio.html#S200319\"\u003EDavid Himmelstein\u003C\/a\u003E) to the point that we're likely stuck with the crudest, most disruptive, and most economically damaging form of suppression.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EThis has implications for rebuilding social and public capabilities that  I'll save for a later post on how SARS-CoV-2 is putting neoliberalism  out of its misery--and how to keep that from causing further misery for diverse publics. \u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EA theory point: public officials are using projections of high infection and death rates to install suppression regimes, but these suppression regimes are designed to invalidate the numbers that justify them (by producing much lower rates of infection and death).\u0026nbsp; Either you infect 81 percent of California by doing nothing, \u003Ci\u003Eor \u003C\/i\u003Eyou lockdown California and get a much lower infection percentage.\u0026nbsp; You don't do both.\u0026nbsp; I elaborate on this point because it's important for people \u003Ci\u003Enot \u003C\/i\u003Eto think \u003Ci\u003Elockdown = death \u003C\/i\u003E(regardless)\u003Ci\u003E,\u003C\/i\u003E but to think the opposite.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EA policy point: public officials must not bullshit the public with exaggerated numbers, withheld models (CDC!), and mashup policies that will encourage cheating. Newsom did the right thing, but he didn't give clear, honest reasons for it.\u0026nbsp; That has to change.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/li\u003E\u003C\/ul\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003ETo take the last point first: Where \u003Ci\u003Edid\u003C\/i\u003E Newsom get the number that he used to shut down most of the state economy without an end date? We don't actually know. The LA \u003Ci\u003ETimes \u003C\/i\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/california\/story\/2020-03-19\/gavin-newsom-california-1-billion-federal-aid-coronavirus\"\u003Ereports\u003C\/a\u003E, \"the governor’s office declined to provide an explanation of the state’s  projection that 25.5 million Californians will be infected with this  virus. Instead, a spokesman for the governor said the state’s mitigation  efforts could lower that estimate.\"\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EThe last part is true (though \"mitigation\" is the wrong word, as I'll explain), but the public should be told the source.\u0026nbsp; In the meantime, I'll guess that Newsom's people got that number from the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.imperial.ac.uk\/media\/imperial-college\/medicine\/sph\/ide\/gida-fellowships\/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf\"\u003Enow-famous pandemic modeling paper\u003C\/a\u003E I mentioned at the top, Ferguson et al. Their baseline reproduction number (Ro) for the disease is 2.4--meaning each case typically goes on to infect 2.4 other  people. You can get to 25.5 million Covid-19 infections by taking California's Covid infection count when Newsom spoke--around 1000--and giving it an exponent of  2.45.\u0026nbsp; (\u003Cu\u003EUpdated: \u003C\/u\u003ESee Akos Rona-Tas's correction of this speculation below, under March 23.)\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EThe Ferguson paper derived that Ro in part from from  the spread of the virus in Wuhan, China, before the government began its  many non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs)--forced quarantining,  widespread testing, etc.\u0026nbsp; (Wuhan's Ro was \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/mronline.org\/2020\/01\/29\/notes-on-a-novel-coronavirus\/\"\u003Epreviously reported\u003C\/a\u003E as 3.11).\u0026nbsp; The projection that 56 percent of  the California population will become infected appeared as a math error in \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.gov.ca.gov\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/3.18.20-Letter-USNS-Mercy-Hospital-Ship.pdf\"\u003ENewsom's letter to Trump \u003C\/a\u003Erequesting  a hospital ship: it's actually 64 percent, or alternately, 39.56  million Californians * 0.56 = 22.15 million inflections.\u0026nbsp; The point isn't the bad math but the need to offer credible numbers and explain clearly where they come from.\u0026nbsp; People will take honest, fully disclosed estimates more seriously.\u0026nbsp; Health policy needs to be \u003Ci\u003Eopen\u003C\/i\u003E to establish the trust that government now desperately needs, to discourage cheating, and to allow meaningful democratic judgment about overall policy.\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EPublic officials, including Newsom, seem to be now focused on using big numbers to stampede the masses into social distancing, RTFN. This is understandable, since, in the suppression arsenal, social distancing is pretty much all we've got.\u0026nbsp; But one major effect of their statements is to muddle the difference between \u003Ci\u003Emitigating\u003C\/i\u003E and \u003Ci\u003Esuppressing\u003C\/i\u003E a pandemics: the former allows infection rates like 55 percent. The latter slows growth rates and can put them into reverse.\u0026nbsp; Suppression also requires a rigor that people won't pursue if they don't understand the massive difference it can make. \u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003ETo put this in the form of a question, could the U.S. and the European Union (and other regions) achieve \u003Ci\u003Esuppression\u003C\/i\u003E and thus decline in the number of new cases?\u0026nbsp; The \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/projects\/california-coronavirus-cases-tracking-outbreak\/#nt=1PromoSuperLeadLarge-1col-7030col1-main\"\u003Ecurrent tracking in California \u003C\/a\u003Eis not good.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-X95kncuXnIs\/Xnbhrg2NHdI\/AAAAAAAAEZU\/2hGRpZLnA9AQrzzDlpl5KUVD5QJfFFj7gCNcBGAsYHQ\/s1600\/Screen%2BShot%2B2020-03-21%2Bat%2B8.54.54%2BPM.png\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"979\" data-original-width=\"1560\" height=\"250\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-X95kncuXnIs\/Xnbhrg2NHdI\/AAAAAAAAEZU\/2hGRpZLnA9AQrzzDlpl5KUVD5QJfFFj7gCNcBGAsYHQ\/s400\/Screen%2BShot%2B2020-03-21%2Bat%2B8.54.54%2BPM.png\" width=\"400\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EBut look at\u0026nbsp; the South Korean case pattern.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-RaGuCoCdS3c\/XnTnu7Kut8I\/AAAAAAAAEYo\/K3pGOeH1lKU3nNdfiiY3N5wb82QVYH7vgCNcBGAsYHQ\/s1600\/Korea%2BCDC%2B032020.png\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"1040\" data-original-width=\"1600\" height=\"258\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-RaGuCoCdS3c\/XnTnu7Kut8I\/AAAAAAAAEYo\/K3pGOeH1lKU3nNdfiiY3N5wb82QVYH7vgCNcBGAsYHQ\/s400\/Korea%2BCDC%2B032020.png\" width=\"400\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003ESouth Korea had our hockey stick and has now bent it down into slower growth of new cases.\u0026nbsp; As is now widely discussed, South Korea, \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/03\/17\/world\/asia\/coronavirus-singapore-hong-kong-taiwan.html\"\u003ESingapore\u003C\/a\u003E, Hong Kong, \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/jamanetwork.com\/journals\/jama\/fullarticle\/2762689\"\u003ETaiwan\u003C\/a\u003E, and \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.xinhuanet.com\/english\/2020-03\/20\/c_138897280.htm\"\u003Enow Wuhan\u003C\/a\u003E have \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencemag.org\/news\/2020\/03\/coronavirus-cases-have-dropped-sharply-south-korea-whats-secret-its-success\"\u003Eslowed\u003C\/a\u003E the spread.\u0026nbsp; This is the effect of \u003Ci\u003Esuppression\u003C\/i\u003E strategies.\u0026nbsp; There's some important news here, which is that Covid-19 infections rates can be reduced, and its case-mortality rate can be kept low (not the 3.4 percent reported by the World Health Organization, but about \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.cdc.go.kr\/board\/board.es?mid=a30402000000\u0026amp;bid=0030\"\u003E1 percent in South Korea\u003C\/a\u003E, or 0.54 percent for cases under age 60).\u0026nbsp; Germany currently has a \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2020\/mar\/22\/germany-low-coronavirus-mortality-rate-puzzles-experts\"\u003E0.3 percent case-mortality rate\u003C\/a\u003E. SARS-CoV-2 kills people by doing horrible damage to their lungs (see the images around 0'30\" in \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/drive.google.com\/file\/u\/1\/d\/1ExtjioWlOaXHHx-7I-ftfsJH5Ugl9DUm\/view?usp=drive_web\u0026amp;usp=embed_facebook\"\u003Ethis\u003C\/a\u003E Santa Barbara Cottage Health grand rounds lecture).\u0026nbsp; And yet the virus does so little to so many other victims that \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/science.sciencemag.org\/content\/early\/2020\/03\/13\/science.abb3221\"\u003E86 percent of cases in China were undocumented\u003C\/a\u003E prior to travel restrictions.\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EOn to the model: the Ferguson et al. paper draws on previous work with influenza pandemics to compare three responses-- \u003Ci\u003Edoing nothing, mitigation,\u003C\/i\u003E and \u003Ci\u003Esuppression\u003C\/i\u003E.\u0026nbsp; Doing nothing seems to have been the preferred option of the Boris Johnson and Donald Trump governments until about March 15th-16th\u0026nbsp; (\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.buzzfeed.com\/alexwickham\/coronavirus-uk-strategy-deaths\"\u003EJohnson\u003C\/a\u003E, \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/03\/16\/world\/live-coronavirus-news-updates.html#link-4591d2bc\"\u003ETrump\u003C\/a\u003E), with the Johnson government allegedly working on a trust that infection would create \"herd immunity\" without disrupting the economy.\u0026nbsp; At least in the UK, they seem to have taken on board the Ferguson et al. calculations that \"doing nothing\" will lead to infection in 81 percent of the population (at\u0026nbsp; 2.4 Ro), producing 510,000 deaths in the UK, plus 2.2 million deaths in the United States, both over a 2 year period.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EWith doing nothing now ruled out, the alternatives that Ferguson et al. modeled are \u003Ci\u003Emitigation \u003C\/i\u003Eor \u003Ci\u003Esuppression\u003C\/i\u003E. Suppression is China after January 23rd and South Korea, among others; \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.buzzfeed.com\/alexwickham\/coronavirus-uk-strategy-deaths\"\u003EBritain is moving to suppression\u003C\/a\u003E with \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2020\/mar\/20\/london-pubs-cinemas-and-gyms-may-close-in-covid-19-clampdown\"\u003Eone escalating announcement\u003C\/a\u003E after \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2020\/mar\/22\/uk-could-face-italy-style-lockdown-warns-boris-johnson\"\u003Eanother\u003C\/a\u003E (which may defeat the purpose).\u0026nbsp; Some parts of the U.S. are now doing suppression, including New York and California. The Ferguson paper divides these two strategies into two groups of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs).\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp;The most effective set of mitigation measures are: \u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cul\u003E\u003Cli\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003ECase isolation in the home (CI): symptomatic cases stay at home for 7 days.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EVoluntary home quarantine (HQ): all members of a household with a case stay home for 14 days\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003ESocial distancing of those over age 70 (SDO).\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/li\u003E\u003C\/ul\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003ENote that this falls short of \"lockdown,\" which includes social distancing for the whole population (SD) and, in most cases, \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/03\/18\/us\/politics\/education-schools-coronavirus.html\"\u003Eclosures of schools\u003C\/a\u003E and \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/19wJZekxpewDQmApULkvZRBpBwcnd5gZlZF2SEU2WQD8\/htmlview?pru=AAABcOo1-zM*lC_O9CYqi04BUhKklWQp-w#gid=0\"\u003Euniversities.\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EMitigation is the famous \"flattening the curve.\" The serious cases that  need hospital services are pushed out over time, with the goal of relieving some of the stress on the health care  system. Mitigation is \"predicted to reduce peak critical care demand by two-thirds and halve the number of deaths\" (8).\u0026nbsp; Assuming the ratio of infections to critical care cases is constant, and that the syntax means mitigation yields 2\/3rds of the \"do nothing\" infection rate, this leads to 54 percent of the population being infected, and to 1.1 million deaths in the U.S.\u0026nbsp; (When \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/03\/20\/opinion\/sunday\/coronavirus-outcomes.html\"\u003EKristof quotes Ferguson\u003C\/a\u003E saying his best case is 1.1 million deaths, I think he ran Ferguson et al.'s two regimes together: in my view, the sentence should read, \"his best case \u003Cu\u003Efor mitigation\u003C\/u\u003E\" is 1.1 million deaths.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EClearly mitigation isn't good enough.\u0026nbsp; A million deaths in the U.S. is unacceptable, and the model suggests that under mitigation health care systems will still be overwhelmed (10). Since something like \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.commondreams.org\/news\/2020\/03\/11\/italys-hospitals-overwhelmed-coronavirus-top-health-official-says-worst-yet-come-us\"\u003EItaly's hospital crisis\u003C\/a\u003E and high fatalities are the combination everyone wants to avoid, the UK, the EU, California, and now several other U.S. states have moved into suppression. \u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EA side note: I would normally read the quotation to mean that mitigation reduces peak care demand (and infections) by 2\/3rds, down to 1\/3rd of their previous level, which is a 27 percent infection rate.\u0026nbsp; I don't know if that's what Ferguson et al. meant, but it's still more than \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.livescience.com\/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html\"\u003Edouble this year's seasonal flu rate\u003C\/a\u003E (so far this season, flu has killed 22,000 Americans).\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EMuch of the U.S. is now following Italy, France, Spain, and other countries into \u003Ci\u003Esuppression. \u003C\/i\u003EThe key benefit is that it reduces the reproduction number (Ro) to close to 1 or below, which China has shown is feasible.\u0026nbsp; Here's a nice \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.worldometers.info\/coronavirus\/country\/china\/\"\u003Estretch goal for the West\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-yU-jBrvQW5k\/Xne7nxka50I\/AAAAAAAAEZg\/5RfEzDEvd4w8FtXhfVixNM8bxpSCb6OaACNcBGAsYHQ\/s1600\/Screen%2BShot%2B2020-03-22%2Bat%2B12.25.00%2BPM.png\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"1243\" data-original-width=\"1600\" height=\"310\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-yU-jBrvQW5k\/Xne7nxka50I\/AAAAAAAAEZg\/5RfEzDEvd4w8FtXhfVixNM8bxpSCb6OaACNcBGAsYHQ\/s400\/Screen%2BShot%2B2020-03-22%2Bat%2B12.25.00%2BPM.png\" width=\"400\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp;In the Ferguson et al. model, suppression adds to mitigation's measures:\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cul\u003E\u003Cli\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003Eschool and university closures (PC)\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003Esocial distancing expanded to the whole population (SD)\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/li\u003E\u003C\/ul\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EI've reproduced the table that shows the results. I'd recommend starting in column 1 with the baseline Ro of 2.4 (510,000 \"do nothing\" deaths) and look at the medium case of 200 (which means that the full suppression program is suspended when ICU cases fall below 200 in Great Britain, and are re-engaged when they rise above that number). (The paper does not have a similar table for the U.S.)\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-It0_pdI1nk4\/XnVAy6JMqKI\/AAAAAAAAEZA\/1-0egjqOKLI0_qEH19uXISvcU7PdKtQKwCNcBGAsYHQ\/s1600\/COvid%2BSuppresson%2BFerguson%2Bet%2Bal%2BTable%2B4%2B031620.png\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"975\" data-original-width=\"1600\" height=\"243\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-It0_pdI1nk4\/XnVAy6JMqKI\/AAAAAAAAEZA\/1-0egjqOKLI0_qEH19uXISvcU7PdKtQKwCNcBGAsYHQ\/s400\/COvid%2BSuppresson%2BFerguson%2Bet%2Bal%2BTable%2B4%2B031620.png\" width=\"400\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003ECalifornia is now doing the full suppression program.\u0026nbsp; If you look at the right-hand column under Total Deaths you can see the results.\u0026nbsp; Deaths in Great Britain drop from 510,000 to 24,000, or by a factor of around 20.\u0026nbsp; The U.S. equivalent would be 110,000 deaths, not Kristof's 1.1 million.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003ENote two other features of this model.\u0026nbsp; The interventions all have finite periods: mitigation is modeled over 3 months (to mid-June 2020) and suppression over 5 months (to mid-August 2020).\u0026nbsp; They don't extend to the full 18 month \"vaccine\" period, nor are they open-ended.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003ESecond, they are adjusted according to thresholds of infection and hospitalization that can be selected and monitored.\u0026nbsp; Governments have a great deal of agency here.\u0026nbsp; In other words, this new coronavirus is bad, but it is not an irresistible event like a giant asteroid hitting the earth.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EA big catch is that the versions of suppression in South Korea, Taiwain, Hong Kong, Singapore, and China include \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/world-nation\/story\/2020-03-14\/south-koreas-rapid-coronavirus-testing-far-ahead-of-the-u-s-could-be-a-matter-of-life-and-death\"\u003Emass testing\u003C\/a\u003E.\u0026nbsp; Neither the US nor the UK \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/news\/world\/americas\/coronavirus-us-tests-kits-how-many-cdc-south-korea-a9398231.html\"\u003Ehave done this\u003C\/a\u003E, nor do we seen to have the capability to ramp this up.\u0026nbsp; There's been \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/03\/19\/opinion\/coronavirus-testing.html?searchResultPosition=13\"\u003Emuch\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.newyorker.com\/news\/news-desk\/what-went-wrong-with-coronavirus-testing-in-the-us\"\u003Eexcoriating\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/opinions\/2020\/03\/13\/coronavirus-is-an-indictment-our-way-life\/\"\u003Ecommentary\u003C\/a\u003E on this point.\u0026nbsp;                  \u003Cspan style=\"font-family: \u0026quot;inherit\u0026quot; , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;\"\u003EI had been hoping that UC Health could make a big difference to California public health. A potentially exciting March 14th headline, \u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: \u0026quot;calibri\u0026quot; , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/california\/story\/2020-03-14\/uc-ramps-up-in-house-testing-for-coronavirus-in-move-to-slow-the-pandemic\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: blue; font-family: \u0026quot;inherit\u0026quot; , serif; mso-bidi-font-family: \u0026quot;Times New Roman\u0026quot;; mso-fareast-font-family: \u0026quot;Times New Roman\u0026quot;;\"\u003E\"UC has a solution to the national shortage of coronavirus testing,\"\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: \u0026quot;inherit\u0026quot; , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;\"\u003E didn't, with our weak public sector, mean UC is gearing up mass testing for the public, but that it \u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: \u0026quot;calibri\u0026quot; , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/cnewf\/status\/1239010370573840386\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: blue; font-family: \u0026quot;inherit\u0026quot; , serif; mso-bidi-font-family: \u0026quot;Times New Roman\u0026quot;; mso-fareast-font-family: \u0026quot;Times New Roman\u0026quot;;\"\u003Ehas a private test for its own patients\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: \u0026quot;inherit\u0026quot; , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;\"\u003E.\u0026nbsp; I've heard ambitious UC plans--in this week's board meetings, one UC regent suggested for the installation of MASH hospitals on empty land that UC owns. But because of testing and equipment shortages, UC medical centers have to focus on protecting themselves (see 0'44\"-0'49\" or so in this very \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=UafK-4vMr8M\"\u003Euseful UCSF infectious diseases division' grand rounds\u003C\/a\u003E).\u003C\/span\u003EI'll end by adding a few items to the summary list above:\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cul\u003E\u003Cli\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EThe virus is going to be terrible for public health workers, who deserve not only massive sympathy and support but also personal protective equipment, which they \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/03\/21\/business\/coronavirus-masks-hanes-trump.html\"\u003Emay now have more hope of getting\u003C\/a\u003E.\u0026nbsp; Mass testing also depends on cranking out PPE.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EPublic health interventions in Asia have had enough success with suppression to give\u0026nbsp; credibility to the Imperial College model--most interestingly, its suggestion that deaths can be reduced by an order of magnitude.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EOn the other hand, hospital access remains a potential catastrophe.\u0026nbsp; Full suppression reduces ICU need to 1\/3rd of \"doing nothing.\"\u0026nbsp; In the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/03\/13\/us\/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html\"\u003Ebootlegged C.D.C.’s scenarios\u003C\/a\u003E, \"2.4  million to 21 million people in the United States could require  hospitalization, potentially crushing the nation’s medical system, which  has \u003Ca class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aha.org\/statistics\/fast-facts-us-hospitals\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"\"\u003Eonly about 925,000 staffed hospital beds\u003C\/a\u003E. Fewer than a tenth of those are for people who are critically ill.\"\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EStill, suppression seems to make a big difference even if it is leaky: the Ferguson et al modeling assumed incomplete success and still got major reductions (see Table 2 on page 6).\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EThe US has a weak health system (or no health \"system\" at all, as Robert Reich \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/commentisfree\/2020\/mar\/15\/america-public-health-system-coronavirus-trump?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other\"\u003Erightly observes\u003C\/a\u003E). This is a big problem. But the US has some other advantages: a lot of really good, dedicated health personnel, lower population density than Europe's or East Asia's and, ironically, dependency on the self-isolating feature of private cars.\u0026nbsp; Our version of suppression might be more successful than we now expect.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EOfficials should give expiration dates to the current suppression regimes. They can be extended later, depending on conditions.\u0026nbsp; As I noted, the Ferguson et al. model assumes a kind of regular adjusting depending on infection numbers. (Hong Kong has \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-asia-china-51921515\"\u003Ereimposed\u003C\/a\u003E quarantine and testing on arrivals after an uptick in cases.) Indefinite lockdowns are bad for both people and the economy.\u0026nbsp; Once people are scared indoors, and the infection curve is bent like South Korea's, governments should throw the lockdown into partial reverse, lest they create another Great Depression x 2.4.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/li\u003E\u003C\/ul\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EI'll move on to political, economic, and university dimensions in other posts.\u0026nbsp; From the Haley Street Bunker: stay well, and keep your distance!\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EMonday March 23rd\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EStatistical chemist Michael Levitt\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/science\/story\/2020-03-22\/coronavirus-outbreak-nobel-laureate\"\u003E hammers on one of this post's key points\u003C\/a\u003E: \"\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003EThe virus can grow exponentially only when it is undetected and no one is acting to control it.\"\u0026nbsp; The media, he says, should focus not on total number of cumulative cases but on rates of growth of new cases.\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESpeaking of which,\u0026nbsp; South Korea's number dropped again, so the chart looks a \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.cdc.go.kr\/board\/board.es?mid=a30402000000\u0026amp;bid=0030\"\u003Ebit better today\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003EThe coming U.S. health crisis will owe much to a social system that can't anticipate non-market public needs. \u0026nbsp; That's not what \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/health\/government-scrambling-to-advise-hospitals-that-run-out-of-basic-supplies\/2020\/03\/21\/d9c36702-6b88-11ea-abef-020f086a3fab_story.html\"\u003Ethis WaPo piece\u003C\/a\u003E says in so many words, but it has all the raw material--shortages of masks, gowns, tests, ventilators.\u0026nbsp; What aren't we short of Covid-wise?\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/03\/22\/opinion\/health\/ventilator-shortage-coronavirus-solution.html?referringSource=articleShare\"\u003EThis piece\u003C\/a\u003E, by a Mass General physician, specifies how the market power of large hospitals will mal-distribute emergency equipment: \"We are currently taking an every-hospital-system-for-themselves  approach, in which some hospitals will surely say “we’ll take them all”  while others will lack the capital to make such large \u003Ca class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/health\/2020\/03\/18\/ventilator-shortage-hospital-icu-coronavirus\/\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"\"\u003Epurchases in advance\u003C\/a\u003E and therefore will be reliant on FEMA, which will be forced to ration  scarce, lifesaving equipment. These already cash-strapped hospitals  serving poorer populations will soon be put in even greater jeopardy.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cu\u003EFrom Akos Ronas-Tas \u003C\/u\u003E(Prof of Sociology, UC San Diego): How Newsom got his numbers (over half of Californians being infected) is a mystery, but it is surely not by raising 1000 to the power of 2.45. I am no epidemiologist either, but the Ro produces an estimate only if you specify how many generations of infections you count. So if the base (generation 0) is 1000 and Ro is 2.4 (used by Ferguson), the first generation will be 1000*2.4=2400, the second generation 2400*2.40 = 5760 and so on. The total number infected will be by then 1000+2400+5760=9160, adding up generations 0,1 and 2. In the Ferguson paper they use a 6.5 day generation time. The key here is that Newsom made his prediction for 8 weeks out. So he is counting roughly 8 generations. The number of newly infected in the 8th generation will be 1000*2.4^8=1,100,753. You have to add to this those from the earlier generations. That will give you the total number of those infected (roughly, 1.9 million). Some of them will have recovered by then and happily immune, others would have died. I don’t see how this adds up to 25.5 million, either as the number of all people who have ever been infected, let alone all people needing care at a certain date. \u0026nbsp;You would get to a cumulative 26 million in 11 generations with 15 million new infections. That is 71.5 days, 10 weeks, still only late May.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EYou can make the model more complicated. Ferguson assumed a variable R in each generation and it should also vary across generation as the number of people getting immunity increases.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/gabgoh.github.io\/COVID\/index.html\"\u003EHere is a nice calculator\u003C\/a\u003E that adds a few other considerations.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe real scary numbers come from the healthcare system. There are only 74,000 hospital beds in California, and 6,300 in SD \u0026nbsp;county, only 32% of which are available. This is probably similar in the state overall. But what you really need is ICU beds (only 800 available in SD county). There are about 50,000 ICU beds in the entire US and about 100,000 respirators. And you also have to add to this that beds, even ICU beds are useless unless you have trained personnel attending to them. So if we suppose only 2 million people being sick at the same time in CA, and only 10% \u0026nbsp;(100,000) needing hospital beds and only 4% (40,000) ICU beds, we have a major catastrophe.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003ETuesday, March 24\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003EOn the duration of the shutdown, \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.democracynow.org\/2020\/3\/24\/jeffrey_sachs_congress_economic_relief_package\"\u003EJeffrey Sachs invokes\u003C\/a\u003E the example of China. Their ironclad version of suppression, including mass testing, suggests the spread of SARS-CoV-2 can be stopped in 60 days.\u0026nbsp; Sachs says 60-90 days.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003EThis is not what's happening in Italy, where exasperated mayors \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/protectheflames\/status\/1242190140757458945?s=20\"\u003Eberate their citizenry.\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Ci\u003EBuzzfeed\u003C\/i\u003E does funniest \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.buzzfeed.com\/farrahpenn\/pure-and-wholesome-quarantine-people-coronavirus\"\u003Ehome videos for the Covid quarantine\u003C\/a\u003E.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003EAs India's government orders a \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2020\/03\/india-extends-lockdown-coronavirus-appears-small-towns-200324094240568.html\"\u003E3-week \"total lockdown,\"\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp; nearly \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2020\/03\/23\/us\/coronavirus-which-states-stay-at-home-order-trnd\/index.html\"\u003E60 percent of the U.S. population is not under stay-at-home orders\u003C\/a\u003E or being mass-tested.\u0026nbsp; The U.S. is therefore not, overall, doing suppression, but \u003Ci\u003Emitigation\u003C\/i\u003E of SARS-CoV-2.\u0026nbsp; Note that this predicts some \"flattening of the curve\" of infection--reducing but not eliminating the overload on health care-- but \u003Ci\u003Enot\u003C\/i\u003E reversing the spread of the disease (Ro stays above 1). Some red state politicians are actively resisting social distancing (\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/talkingpointsmemo.com\/news\/texas-dan-patrick-grandparents-sacrifice-lives-coronavirus-economy\"\u003ETexas\u003C\/a\u003E, \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/crooksandliars.com\/2020\/03\/mississippi-governor-refuses-act\"\u003EMississippi\u003C\/a\u003E), as is \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/aponline\/2020\/03\/23\/business\/bc-us-virus-outbreak-economy-vs-health.html\"\u003EPOTUS himself.\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003ESpeaking of testing, \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/california\/story\/2020-03-24\/california-coronavirus-outbreak-testing\"\u003ECalifornia is way behind New York, working \"piecemeal.\"\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\"tr_bq\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003EThis piecemeal approach, said Harvard epidemiologist Michael Mina, is a key problem with testing in California and nationwide.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E \u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\"tr_bq\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E“We  have a decentralized healthcare system and we have no way to scale for  government means,” Mina said. “Everything is privatized, everything is  individualized in our country and it’s become our Achilles’ heel in this  case.”\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp; \u003Cb\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003EWednesday, March 25\u003C\/b\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003Cb\u003E It's Bailout Day!\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003ENYT \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/03\/25\/us\/politics\/whats-in-coronavirus-stimulus-bill.html\"\u003Esummary\u003C\/a\u003E.\u0026nbsp; \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/prospect.org\/coronavirus\/unsanitized-bailouts-tradition-unlike-any-other\/?fbclid=IwAR17sVsM0fV3EQ5wKX1nDBDQzb9ydKgLKcHaRpcHf3FnGj7rH-QgDIY9vvw\"\u003EEssential first take by David Dayen.\u003C\/a\u003E Trigger warning: wow will this analysis not reassure you that any economic reforms are in the offing.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EYes we have no protection: \"\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003EA very American story about \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/03\/25\/opinion\/coronavirus-face-mask.html\"\u003Ecapitalism consuming our national preparedness and resiliency\u003C\/a\u003E\"\u0026nbsp; Painful contrast between the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/business\/2020\/03\/24\/scramble-medical-equipment-descends-into-chaos-us-states-hospitals-compete-rare-supplies\/\"\u003EAmerican scramble for the most basic equipmen\u003C\/a\u003Et and \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/europe\/germany-coronavirus-death-rate\/2020\/03\/24\/76ce18e4-6d05-11ea-a156-0048b62cdb51_story.html\"\u003EGermany's highly successful\u003C\/a\u003E health system for radically minimizing fatalities.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003EHalf-assed LAT reporting on the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/california\/story\/2020-03-25\/california-20-billion-budget-reserve-may-get-wiped-out-by-coronavirus-crisis\"\u003Ecoming fiscal crisis\u003C\/a\u003E of the state of California.\u0026nbsp; No real info, and other annoying stuff. How do you find the school lobbyist who will say this will be really bad for the schools, and then add, \"under current law, it is likely that schools could  withstand a total statewide revenue loss of around $5 billion. But more  than that and schools will face significant problems.\"\u0026nbsp; So your own lobbyist just told the state that a 7 percent cut is fine.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003EWhere's higher ed in the stimulus bill? Inside Higher Ed's summary:\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\"tr_bq\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003ESix-Month Loan Deferment in Senate Bill\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003EMarch\u0026nbsp;25, Noon.\u003Cb\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/b\u003EStudent loan  borrowers would be allowed to defer making payments for six months,  without interest, through Sept.\u0026nbsp;30, according to a summary of the $2  trillion stimulus package Senate leaders agreed to at 1 a.m. Wednesday  morning. The full bill is still being written and hasn’t yet been  released. \u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\"tr_bq\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan id=\"docs-internal-guid-b6cc30db-7fff-9c68-86f8-9694edfd93b8\"\u003EBut according to summaries of the bill making the rounds among education advocacy groups and obtained by \u003Ci\u003EInside Higher Ed\u003C\/i\u003E,  the measure will also include changes sought by advocates such as\u0026nbsp;not  requiring Pell Grant students to repay money to the federal government  if their terms are disrupted by the coronavirus emergency.\u003C\/span\u003E \u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\"tr_bq\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan id=\"docs-internal-guid-b6cc30db-7fff-9c68-86f8-9694edfd93b8\"\u003EHowever, the bill is expected to disappoint\u0026nbsp;advocates \u003C\/span\u003Ewho  had embraced Democratic proposals in the House and Senate, in which the  federal government would have made the payments on behalf of borrowers,  reducing their balances by at least $10,000. The summary did not  mention any loan cancellation. \u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\"tr_bq\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan id=\"docs-internal-guid-b6cc30db-7fff-9c68-86f8-9694edfd93b8\"\u003EA  separate summary contains $30.75 billion in grants to “provide  emergency support to local school systems and higher education  institutions to continue to provide educational services to their  students and support.” That amount\u0026nbsp;appears be about $29 billion less  than what higher education institutions could potentially get in the  bill proposed by House Democrats, but $21 billion more than what Senate  Republicans had initially proposed, one higher education lobbyist said.\u0026nbsp;  Associations representing institutions that\u0026nbsp;were\u0026nbsp;disappointed with\u0026nbsp;the  previous proposals\u0026nbsp;were still waiting for the full bill before they  commented on the level of funding.\u003C\/span\u003E \u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\"tr_bq\"\u003E\u003Cdiv dir=\"ltr\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003EThe bill requires the secretary to defer student loan payments, principal, and interest for six months, through Sept. 30, 2020.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003EThursday, March 26\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003ECovid revealing \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/the-us-traditionally-leads-in-times-of-crisis-now-its-practicing-self-isolation\/2020\/03\/25\/1fa3f9b6-6d38-11ea-a156-0048b62cdb51_story.html\"\u003EAmerica's rear guard place in the world\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EZero Hedge's mashup of \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/geopolitical\/12-experts-question-covid-19-panic\"\u003Ehostility to the shutdown,\u003C\/a\u003E mixing vulnerability of SARS-CoV-2 to treatment (it isn’t a superbug) with statistical problems (extensive) with lockdown’s effect on the economy (bad but unavoidable). \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.emptywheel.net\/2020\/03\/26\/trumps-blame-the-governors-strategy-and-rural-roulette\/\"\u003EPlaying rural roulette\u003C\/a\u003E because lockdowns are Democrat.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003ESuppression works, says none other than Neil Ferguson!! \u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\"tr_bq\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EHe said that expected increases in National Health Service capacity and ongoing \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.newscientist.com\/article\/2237664-coronavirus-what-is-social-distancing-and-how-do-you-do-it\"\u003Erestrictions to people’s movements\u003C\/a\u003E make him “reasonably confident” the health service can cope when the  predicted peak of the epidemic arrives in two or three weeks. UK deaths  from the disease are now unlikely to exceed 20,000, he said, and could  be much lower.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EBut don't go back outside! Because, on the other hand,\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\"tr_bq\"\u003EThis measure of how many other people a carrier usually infects is now  believed to be just over three, he said, up from 2.5. “That adds more  evidence to support the more intensive social distancing measures,” he  said.\u003C\/blockquote\u003ESpecial bonus for modeling fans: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.dropbox.com\/s\/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c\/Draft-COVID-19-Model%20%2813%29.pdf?dl=0\"\u003EOxford now has a model too.\u003C\/a\u003E More on this coming soon.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EHope for a UK Covid-19 \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2020\/mar\/26\/covid-19-self-test-could-allow-return-to-work-says-public-health-england\"\u003Ehome test within two weeks\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAnd\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/03\/26\/health\/usa-coronavirus-cases.html\"\u003E We're Number 1 \u003C\/a\u003E- in Covid-19 cases. "},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/feeds\/8483702448020178274\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2020\/03\/coverging-crises-part-i-covid-shutdown.html#comment-form","title":"4 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/1170716682680204889\/posts\/default\/8483702448020178274"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/1170716682680204889\/posts\/default\/8483702448020178274"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2020\/03\/coverging-crises-part-i-covid-shutdown.html","title":"Coverging Crises Part I: Covid Shutdown Theory (Updated)"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Chris Newfield"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/01078395415386100872"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-18r8nGYwdME\/XnK4bSSRG1I\/AAAAAAAAEYY\/AhRHKmoLlPEvko85bu4gTQsHZ_X2MU93wCNcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/pandemic-virus-globe.jpg","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"4"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1170716682680204889.post-2347553963041672678"},"published":{"$t":"2020-01-13T08:52:00.000-08:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-01-13T13:08:08.642-08:00"},"category":[{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Funding Model"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"guest post"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Janet Napolitano"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Public Funding"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"UC Regents"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"UCOP"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"First Look at the Governor's UC Budget Proposal"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-yzvUpxk1wfc\/XhvUA4OIobI\/AAAAAAAAC6I\/3etUANCSuOk97KoXHh8yn4TJowMnh3FZACLcBGAsYHQ\/s1600\/04052018-happisburgh-cliffwalk%2B%25281%2529.jpg\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"528\" data-original-width=\"937\" height=\"180\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-yzvUpxk1wfc\/XhvUA4OIobI\/AAAAAAAAC6I\/3etUANCSuOk97KoXHh8yn4TJowMnh3FZACLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/04052018-happisburgh-cliffwalk%2B%25281%2529.jpg\" width=\"320\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Ci\u003EBy Eric Hays \u003C\/i\u003E(CUCFA)\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003EGovernor Gavin Newson presented his 2020-21 state budget proposal last\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003EFriday. The full budget summary is \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.ebudget.ca.gov\/2020-21\/pdf\/BudgetSummary\/FullBudgetSummary.pdf\"\u003Ehere\u003C\/a\u003E; \u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003Ethe detailed budget for higher ed can be found \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.ebudget.ca.gov\/budget\/2020-21\/#\/Department\/6440\"\u003Ehere\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\" \/\u003E\u003Cbr style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\" \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003EUC Board of Regents Chair John Pérez and UC President Janet Napolitano\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003Equickly\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.universityofcalifornia.edu\/press-room\/statement-uc-board-regents-chair-p-rez-and-uc-president-napolitano-gov-newsom-s-budget\"\u003E put out a statement\u003C\/a\u003E wherein they essentially thanked the\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003EGovernor for his generosity. The concluding sentence is “UC appreciates\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003Ethe governor’s strong continued support of higher education and looks\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003Eforward to our ongoing partnership.”\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\" \/\u003E\u003Cbr style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\" \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003EWhile there is something to be said for the politics of maybe getting\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003Emore of what you want by being polite rather than by being rude, I think\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003Ethere is real harm in UC making such a public statement as it probably\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003Egives the public the idea that UC is being generously funded by the\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003Estate while that is absolutely not true. And this proposed budget,\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003Eshould it pass, will simply make things worse.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\" \/\u003E\u003Cbr style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\" \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003ELet me start by pointing out that California public universities are p\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003Erovided less funding per student than any state except Florida (see the\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/public.tableau.co m\/pro file\/sheeo#!\/vizhome\/SHEF_FY18_Interactive_Data\/About\"\u003E\"Total Education Revenue per FTE\" data\u003C\/a\u003E).\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\" \/\u003E\u003Cbr style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\" \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003EGovernor Newsom can, and did, at the his budget release press conference\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003Epoint to a 5.8% increase in general fund base support for UC to try to\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003Emake this budget proposal look generous, but that ignores so many things.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003EThe first point to make about the increase in funding to UC is that this\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003Eis a 5.8% increase only if you just look at the general fund base\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003Ebudget. In past budget years, the state has provided UC with substantial\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003Eone time funds. This year there is substantially less one time funding.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003ESo, when you look at total state funding of UC, base plus one-time\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003Emoneys, the overall increase to UC is actually 1.3% in 2020-21 relative\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003Eto 2019-20. This compares to a 3.5% increase in state revenue overall,\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003Eand a 2.2% average increase in state spending across all departments,\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\" \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003Eindicating that UC is not a priority in this budget.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\" \/\u003E\u003Cbr style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\" \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003ETo be fair, the table on page 25 of the budget summary link above shows\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003Ethat, at the macro scale of looking just at the grossest division of\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003Eexpenditures in the state budget, Governor Newsom is proposing cutting\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003Espending to almost every program in state government except Health and\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003EHuman Services, which gets a 13% increase, K-12, which gets a 1.6%\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003Eincrease, and Higher Education, which gets a 0.1% increase.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003EPublic higher education, and UC specifically, then are getting a small\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003Eincrease in funding, but such a small increase will likely be\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003Ecompletely countered by inflation.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003EMore importantly, while funding is growing modestly, enrollment is\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003Egrowing quickly. University wide headcount grew from about\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/accountability.universityofcalifornia.edu\/2019\/chapters\/chapter-1.html\"\u003E 200,000 in\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/accountability.universityofcalifornia.edu\/2019\/chapters\/chapter-1.html\"\u003E2015 to 222,493 in 2018\u003C\/a\u003E.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003EState funding for UC would have to grow at least as fast as enrollment\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003Eis growing if we were just to maintain the current funding per student\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003E(and remember, California is 49th of 50 states on this metric), and this\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003Elow rate of growth in funding to UC is just not going to do it.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\" \/\u003E\u003Cbr style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\" \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003EWhat's more, the budget numbers above don't consider big portions of\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003EUC's budget that the state has basically walked away from since the\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003Erecession: namely paying for UC's pension and paying for facilities.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\" \/\u003E\u003Cbr style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\" \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003EThe state used to pay pension costs for UC's state paid employees. But,\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003Eafter the contribution holiday (when the UC Retirement System was more\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003Ethan fully funded such that neither employer nor employee had to make\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003Econtributions into it for nearly 20 years) ended in 2010, the state\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003Erefused to restart their employer contributions to UCRS. Note that the\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003Estate continues to pay its share of retirement contributions for other\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003Estate employees, such as faculty at CSU. As\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003EUC's\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E2019-20 budget proposal indicates,\u003C\/span\u003E the\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003Estate has shorted the UC Retirement System a total of about $3\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003Ebillion since contributions restarted in 2010. \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.ucop.edu\/operating-budget\/_files\/rbudget\/2019-20-budget-detail.pdf\"\u003E(160\u003C\/a\u003E)\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\" \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003ENewsom's budget last year included a $3 billion supplemental pension\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003Epayment to pay unfunded liabilities of the CalPERS retirement plan over\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003Efiscal years 2018-19 through 2022-23 plus $2.9 billion for CalSTRS (the\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003EK-12 teachers’ pension) to pay unfunded liabilities over the same\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003Eperiod. Although at one point debated, in the end there was no similar\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003Edebt relief for UCRS in last year's budget. This year's budget proposes\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003Eaccelerating the payout to CalPERS so that the 2020-21 through 2022-23\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003Emoneys would be paid in 2019-20 -- but still no money for UCRS.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\" \/\u003E\u003Cbr style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\" \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003EFor facilities, the state is short $20 billion in education and general\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003Efacilities capital funding for UC -- the buildings and other\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003Einfrastructure that UC needs for its core mission of teaching and\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003Eresearch \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/regents.universityofcalifornia.edu\/regmeet\/nov19\/f6.pdf\"\u003E(about 1\/4 of which is seismic repairs and upgrades, 1\/4 is\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/regents.universityofcalifornia.edu\/regmeet\/nov19\/f6.pdf\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003Erepairs and replacement of aging plant, and half is needed for expansion\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003Eof educational programs caused by past and ongoing rapid enrollment\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/regents.universityofcalifornia.edu\/regmeet\/nov19\/f6.pdf\"\u003Egrowth\u003C\/a\u003E).\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\" \/\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\" \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003EThe bottom line is that California public universities have long had to\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003Edo more with less, causing real long term damage, and this budget\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003Eproposal is not going to change that.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/feeds\/2347553963041672678\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2020\/01\/first-look-at-governors-uc-budget.html#comment-form","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/1170716682680204889\/posts\/default\/2347553963041672678"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/1170716682680204889\/posts\/default\/2347553963041672678"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2020\/01\/first-look-at-governors-uc-budget.html","title":"First Look at the Governor's UC Budget Proposal"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Michael Meranze"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/05336793340375780406"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-yzvUpxk1wfc\/XhvUA4OIobI\/AAAAAAAAC6I\/3etUANCSuOk97KoXHh8yn4TJowMnh3FZACLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/04052018-happisburgh-cliffwalk%2B%25281%2529.jpg","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1170716682680204889.post-6454540036045701166"},"published":{"$t":"2019-11-12T08:42:00.000-08:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-01-07T10:24:58.309-08:00"},"category":[{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Budget"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Funding Model"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Public Funding"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"After the Successful Pursuit of Private Revenue Streams, are UC Campuses Destined for Deficits?"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Ki-Lbhqh3ms\/XcriTEFQ19I\/AAAAAAAAELI\/cMw-upQBvFAB-ZcXa6Xc7LNuKpJ3PdqvwCNcBGAsYHQ\/s1600\/UCSB%2BLagoon%2BAnsel%2BAdams.jpg\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"1103\" data-original-width=\"1600\" height=\"220\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Ki-Lbhqh3ms\/XcriTEFQ19I\/AAAAAAAAELI\/cMw-upQBvFAB-ZcXa6Xc7LNuKpJ3PdqvwCNcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/UCSB%2BLagoon%2BAnsel%2BAdams.jpg\" width=\"320\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EThe short answer seems to be yes.\u0026nbsp; At least one large campus is in and out of negative, two other big ones are heading towards it, and the state of the rest is unknown.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp; All of these have been prize pupils of revenue diversification--going into every kind  of private alternative to state funding they can find.\u0026nbsp; How is this  working out for them?\u0026nbsp; This is a question the UC Regents should consider when they meet this week, as they ponder the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/regents.universityofcalifornia.edu\/regmeet\/nov19\/b4.pdf\"\u003Emain budget request\u003C\/a\u003E that UCOP has put together, and its apparently large 7.5 percent increase from the state. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EUC Berkeley had struggled for years with reorganizations and other deals that didn't pan out as expected (e.g. \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2010\/09\/bains-blow-to-berkeley.html\"\u003EOperation Excellence\u003C\/a\u003E and its \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2016\/02\/the-new-normal-isnt-normal-it-erodes.html\"\u003Eaftermath\u003C\/a\u003E). In late 2013, then-VC for Administration and Finance \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/vcaf.berkeley.edu\/sites\/default\/files\/Time%20is%20not%20on%20our%20side%201%2011.29.13.pdf\"\u003EJohn Wilton announced\u003C\/a\u003E that Berkeley's \"current path is financially unsustainable\" (\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/vcaf.berkeley.edu\/sites\/default\/files\/Time%20is%20not%20on%20our%20side%201%2011.29.13.pdf\"\u003Epage 2\u003C\/a\u003E), and said that only prudent preparation (aka building reserves) had prevented the campus from already being in deficit.\u0026nbsp; In early 2016, \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/news\/grade-point\/wp\/2016\/02\/10\/berkeley-is-facing-big-budget-trouble-painful-measures-ahead-for-nations-top-public-college\/\"\u003Ethat deficit officially surfaced\u003C\/a\u003E, prompting layoffs and other measures to get rid of it, as well as a \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.dailycal.org\/2018\/06\/28\/gov-jerry-brown-signs-2018-19-budget-uc-receives-346-9m-funding-increase\/\"\u003Eone-time campus earmark of $25 million\u003C\/a\u003E from the legislature for 2018-19.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBerkeley appeared to have stopped losing money on operations in \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/finreports.universityofcalifornia.edu\/index.php?file=retrends\/retrends_2018.pdf\"\u003EFY 2018. \u003C\/a\u003EIn September 2019, the chancellor claimed \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.dailycal.org\/2019\/09\/24\/campus-officials-announce-elimination-of-150-million-deficit\/\"\u003Ethe deficit was gone\u003C\/a\u003E, crediting alternative revenue streams.\u0026nbsp; But current information suggests the campus has gone right back into deficit again. It projects a $43 million deficit for 2019-20, or a swing of $128 million from last year's surplus (\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/drive.google.com\/drive\/folders\/1iuZv9fVFW9W_aYVNjU6HcnK2FXhVBcrE\"\u003Eslide 7)\u003C\/a\u003E. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOnward: here's UCLA's \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/ucla.app.box.com\/s\/8l94wpo8xqu7nillldbzfu6agbl9lfke\"\u003EBudget Discussion for 2018-19.\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp; Slide 7 contrasts the revenues the campus controls (yellow range) with those it doesn't (blue), comparing years at the beginning and the end of the period.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-4WyNSu7uWPI\/XchincMmNBI\/AAAAAAAAEKA\/K5kHJfqTWGkuhcuvjwK19UKh3gUsh6_igCNcBGAsYHQ\/s1600\/Revenue%2BBars%2BCompared%2BUCLA%2B2007%253A2017.png\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"1288\" data-original-width=\"1428\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-4WyNSu7uWPI\/XchincMmNBI\/AAAAAAAAEKA\/K5kHJfqTWGkuhcuvjwK19UKh3gUsh6_igCNcBGAsYHQ\/s640\/Revenue%2BBars%2BCompared%2BUCLA%2B2007%253A2017.png\" width=\"640\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003C\/div\u003ETen years on from the last pre-cuts year of 2007-08, UCLA is still down $200 million in state funding.\u0026nbsp; It made up a lot of that with triple tuition from non-resident students (this is a gross, not a net).\u0026nbsp; It grew other tuition funds by taking more students.\u0026nbsp; (This is a more expensive way to grow revenues than charging the same student body more, since you also raise your costs.) UCLA expanded Self-Supporting Degree Programs (SSDPs) aggressively, and the revenues reflect another triple-tuition strategy in which you charge three times as much for what you hope are programs already in the can on the state side so you don't have to invent new things and staff up.\u0026nbsp; And UCLA is also investing various kinds of unspent funds.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIt's worth noting a few visible weaknesses: tuition loses 1\/3rd off the top for financial aid, which state funding does not. (Non-resident tuition now has a 10 percent contribution for return-to-aid.)\u0026nbsp; So $526 million gross tuition (excluding SSDPs) is actually $351 million net. Were SSDPs bringing in free money (more on that later), they would add about 6% of new funding to the core budget after 10 years of growth.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp; The reasonable idea is that you put together a lot of smaller private revenue solutions and they add up to enough to make up for lost public funds.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EUCLA has worked its buns off, and\u0026nbsp; \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/ucla.app.box.com\/s\/8l94wpo8xqu7nillldbzfu6agbl9lfke\"\u003ESlide 9\u003C\/a\u003E shows the reward.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-bc5HLGnaAlc\/XchmEsTbBeI\/AAAAAAAAEKM\/neZXPZGA_EgxMPw28b4m7Wet6WSpthkvACNcBGAsYHQ\/s1600\/Revenue%2BDecline%2BForecast%2BUCLA%2B2018.png\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"1368\" data-original-width=\"1472\" height=\"594\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-bc5HLGnaAlc\/XchmEsTbBeI\/AAAAAAAAEKM\/neZXPZGA_EgxMPw28b4m7Wet6WSpthkvACNcBGAsYHQ\/s640\/Revenue%2BDecline%2BForecast%2BUCLA%2B2018.png\" width=\"640\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EThe reward is to run an operating deficit of 21 percent of core funds by 2023.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote that UCLA proposes to cut this projected deficit in half by positing no pension increases and expanding teaching revenues with no new staff of any kind.\u0026nbsp; Neither of these assumptions hold up.\u0026nbsp; Even if they did, UCLA would still run an 11 percent deficit on its core.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThere's also UCSD-- a poster child of corporate-friendly non-state revenue growth.\u0026nbsp; But after years of hustle, it too faces an operating deficit, though smaller, growing to 4 percent of its $1.5 billion core budget ($58.3 million) in 2022-23.\u0026nbsp; This slide is courtesy of Mohamed al Elew in his thorough \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/triton.news\/2019\/10\/uc-san-diego-facing-potential-fiscal-disaster\/\"\u003E\u003Ci\u003ETriton \u003C\/i\u003Etreatment of the issue\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-aaTxpN2uzcM\/XchsxoLK7KI\/AAAAAAAAEKY\/NCf3NXzAQe0fABb_eFPhiPC8dc1bCNDpgCNcBGAsYHQ\/s1600\/UCSD%2BOperating%2BDeficit%2BMo%2BElew%2BTriton%2B1109.png\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"694\" data-original-width=\"1600\" height=\"276\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-aaTxpN2uzcM\/XchsxoLK7KI\/AAAAAAAAEKY\/NCf3NXzAQe0fABb_eFPhiPC8dc1bCNDpgCNcBGAsYHQ\/s640\/UCSD%2BOperating%2BDeficit%2BMo%2BElew%2BTriton%2B1109.png\" width=\"640\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThese three are best-case UC campuses in different ways.\u0026nbsp; All the system's campuses have distinct mixtures of resources and liabilities.\u0026nbsp; For example, UCOP has been insisting that UC Riverside mostly self-fund its start-up medical school, creating hardships for other academic programs that it now acknowledges (\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/regents.universityofcalifornia.edu\/regmeet\/nov19\/b4.pdf\"\u003Epage 13\u003C\/a\u003E).\u0026nbsp; Whatever their local situation, all of the campuses have been scrambling to find non-public revenues, and they have been enthusiastic and generally done well.\u0026nbsp; So why these deficit troubles?\u0026nbsp; And will next year's overall system budget, even if passed, really help? \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENot so much, because of structural issues.\u0026nbsp; Turning now to systemwide materials prepared for the Board of Regents meetings this week, we can see that 4 big problems are not being addressed.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E1. First is \u003Cu\u003Einstructional revenues.\u003C\/u\u003E\u0026nbsp; UCOP calculates that per-student funds available for instruction are about 20 percent below their 2000-01 level and still under their 2005-06 level (reduced by a second round of cuts--see \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/regents.universityofcalifornia.edu\/regmeet\/nov19\/b4.pdf\"\u003EDisplay 5\u003C\/a\u003E).\u0026nbsp; We're jaded about the cuts in state funding (still down 24 percent at UCLA below their 2007-08 level, for example [\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/ucla.app.box.com\/s\/8l94wpo8xqu7nillldbzfu6agbl9lfke\"\u003Eslide 8]\u003C\/a\u003E).\u0026nbsp; But these overall shortfalls should shock people because the figures include gross tuition \u003Ci\u003Eand \u003C\/i\u003Etuition paid by Cal Grants.\u0026nbsp; Tuition\u0026nbsp; revenues were supposed to have rescued our budgets: I assume state leaders, including the one now chairing the Board of Regents, \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2013\/01\/privatization-hits-wall.html\"\u003Estill believe it.\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp; But tuition hasn't rescued overall revenues.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E2. There are also \u003Cu\u003Eresearch costs\u003C\/u\u003E. Research is essential and also \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2014\/08\/how-can-public-research-universities.html\"\u003Eexpensive\u003C\/a\u003E, and costs the host university money out of pocket to perform.\u0026nbsp; In \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/ncsesdata.nsf.gov\/herd\/2015\/html\/HERD2015_DST_17.html\"\u003EFY 2015,\u003C\/a\u003E Berkeley spent $174 million, UCLA spent $213 million, and UCSD spent $186 million of institutional funds to support it.\u0026nbsp; UCOP is still unable to talk about these major costs that governments and corporations ignore, or explain to the state that research is (a) the most important core function of the University of California and (b) a cost rather than a profit center. Campuses will continue to need to cover a share of research expenditures (22 percent at UC Berkeley, 21 percent at UCLA, 17 percent at UCSD).\u0026nbsp; The state and other research sponsors are going to have to fund these eventually, or we'll risk permanent deficits.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E3. \u003Cu\u003EPension contributions\u003C\/u\u003E.\u0026nbsp; Ten years ago, neither employees nor UC paid into the pension fund.\u0026nbsp; Now both do.\u0026nbsp; UCOP estimates that $400 million a year of operating funds go toward these costs across the system. Total resources have to be discounted by that amount.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E4. \u003Cu\u003EFacilities and maintenance\u003C\/u\u003E.\u0026nbsp; While it was cutting back on everything else, the state also stopped floating bonds to pay for new construction or paying to cover deferred maintenance.\u0026nbsp; Both have degraded teaching and research conditions all over the system. The state's response to complaints was to pass legislation (AB 94, 2013) to allow UC to use operating money on capital projects. This made\u0026nbsp; the shortage of operating funds even worse. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EUCOP is now proposing a major new construction program, as well as one-time deferred maintenance funding.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp; More \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/regents.universityofcalifornia.edu\/regmeet\/nov19\/f6.pdf\"\u003Eremarkable images ensued\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-nOl5iX8FZZ0\/Xch1N4ewv6I\/AAAAAAAAEKk\/m-iM7HnZEg8jqpxTEcfxRFcP7zsx7daLACNcBGAsYHQ\/s1600\/Capital%2BProjects%2B2019-25%2BFunding%2BStatus.png\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"572\" data-original-width=\"1488\" height=\"246\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-nOl5iX8FZZ0\/Xch1N4ewv6I\/AAAAAAAAEKk\/m-iM7HnZEg8jqpxTEcfxRFcP7zsx7daLACNcBGAsYHQ\/s640\/Capital%2BProjects%2B2019-25%2BFunding%2BStatus.png\" width=\"640\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EUC has a capital need of $52 billion. Half of that has no funding source.\u0026nbsp; Display 2 shows that most of the \u003Ci\u003Eunfunded\u003C\/i\u003E capital need is on the campuses.\u0026nbsp; Educational activities can't fund their buildings and maintenance, while the businesses can--which is a fact of life that policymakers should face.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EIf we use the category loosely to include seismic and life safety issues, UC has a $14 billion deferred maintenance issue.\u0026nbsp; In recent years, campuses have had nearly nothing to spend on it.\u0026nbsp; I learned from one campus that it covers such a small fraction of its actual maintenance backlog each year that it would have to double its expenditures to catch up with its 2019 maintenance backlog by the year 2119.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-hq6cXumSDrU\/Xch2fiYqmpI\/AAAAAAAAEK0\/DdEYvJYrz5kCbVrOsAZGMQKN1qExl3tDwCNcBGAsYHQ\/s1600\/Capital%2BProjects%2B2019-25%2BFunding%2BUnmet%2BBy%2BCategory.png\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"910\" data-original-width=\"1492\" height=\"390\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-hq6cXumSDrU\/Xch2fiYqmpI\/AAAAAAAAEK0\/DdEYvJYrz5kCbVrOsAZGMQKN1qExl3tDwCNcBGAsYHQ\/s640\/Capital%2BProjects%2B2019-25%2BFunding%2BUnmet%2BBy%2BCategory.png\" width=\"640\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EThere are plenty of related charts to enjoy, but you see the drift.\u0026nbsp; UC will never recover, not ever, unless it can get the state to fund solutions that match the scale of the problem.\u0026nbsp; There \u003Ci\u003Eare no alternative revenue streams that can do this\u003C\/i\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ETo stick with the last two problems I've noted: the state should provide the $2 billion it saved during the pension contribution holiday to UCRP,\u0026nbsp; in a multi-year funding plan it works out withe UCOP.\u0026nbsp; And the campuses maintenance problem needs a $14 billion general obligation bond issue.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp; The \"alternative revenue streams' model has dug quite a hole. Let's admit how deep it is so we can eventually climb out of it."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/feeds\/6454540036045701166\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2019\/11\/after-successful-pursuit-of-private.html#comment-form","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/1170716682680204889\/posts\/default\/6454540036045701166"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/1170716682680204889\/posts\/default\/6454540036045701166"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2019\/11\/after-successful-pursuit-of-private.html","title":"After the Successful Pursuit of Private Revenue Streams, are UC Campuses Destined for Deficits?"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Chris Newfield"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/01078395415386100872"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Ki-Lbhqh3ms\/XcriTEFQ19I\/AAAAAAAAELI\/cMw-upQBvFAB-ZcXa6Xc7LNuKpJ3PdqvwCNcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/UCSB%2BLagoon%2BAnsel%2BAdams.jpg","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}}]}});