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Riverside"},{"term":"Graduates"},{"term":"Policing"},{"term":"STEM"},{"term":"Tenure"},{"term":"democratic university"},{"term":"For-Profit"},{"term":"University of Wisconsin System"},{"term":"Discrimination"},{"term":"Diversity"},{"term":"Economy"},{"term":"Steven Salaita"},{"term":"UC Los Angeles"},{"term":"Athletics"},{"term":"Corruption"},{"term":"Critical University Studies"},{"term":"Neoliberalism"},{"term":"Religion \u0026 Culture"},{"term":"Teaching"},{"term":"UCLA"},{"term":"UC Irvine"},{"term":"UCPD"},{"term":"UCSC"},{"term":"health care"},{"term":"Academic everything"},{"term":"Graduate Student Conditions"},{"term":"Isla Vista Shootings"},{"term":"Linda Katehi"},{"term":"Philanthropy"},{"term":"Academic Boycotts"},{"term":"Admissions"},{"term":"Biden"},{"term":"British Universities"},{"term":"Closures"},{"term":"Democrats"},{"term":"Grad Student Strike"},{"term":"K-12"},{"term":"Margaret Spellings"},{"term":"Presidential search"},{"term":"Quantification"},{"term":"Sexual Harassment"},{"term":"Student Debt"},{"term":"UC Health"},{"term":"Workforce"},{"term":"anti-racist pedagogy"},{"term":"higher education policy"},{"term":"reparations"},{"term":"2020 Election"},{"term":"ACCJC vs. CCSF"},{"term":"Budget Cuts"},{"term":"Cooper Union"},{"term":"Covid-19 Cuts"},{"term":"Cuts \u0026 Cuts"},{"term":"Debt-Free College"},{"term":"Fake Knoweldge"},{"term":"Fake Knowledge"},{"term":"FutherCuts"},{"term":"Gender"},{"term":"LGBTQ"},{"term":"Metrics"},{"term":"More Cuts"},{"term":"Newsom"},{"term":"Nonpecuniary effects"},{"term":"November 2009"},{"term":"President Drake"},{"term":"State Audit"},{"term":"Structural Racism"},{"term":"UC Merced"},{"term":"UCSB"},{"term":"UCSF"},{"term":"USC"},{"term":"University of Missouri"},{"term":"Vegara vs. California"},{"term":"abolition"},{"term":"abortion"},{"term":"carbon offsets"},{"term":"climate crisis"},{"term":"climate policy"},{"term":"human capital theory"},{"term":"opinion survey"},{"term":"public support"},{"term":"review of The Great Mistake"},{"term":"slavery"},{"term":"stimulus"},{"term":"value of a college degree"},{"term":"white nationalism"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Remaking the University"},"subtitle":{"type":"html","$t":"A blog on higher education and related issues."},"link":[{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#feed","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/feeds\/posts\/default"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/1170716682680204889\/posts\/default\/-\/Public+vs.+Private?alt=json-in-script\u0026max-results=10"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/search\/label\/Public%20vs.%20Private"},{"rel":"hub","href":"http://pubsubhubbub.appspot.com/"},{"rel":"next","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/1170716682680204889\/posts\/default\/-\/Public+vs.+Private\/-\/Public+vs.+Private?alt=json-in-script\u0026start-index=11\u0026max-results=10"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Chris Newfield"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/01078395415386100872"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"generator":{"version":"7.00","uri":"http://www.blogger.com","$t":"Blogger"},"openSearch$totalResults":{"$t":"75"},"openSearch$startIndex":{"$t":"1"},"openSearch$itemsPerPage":{"$t":"10"},"entry":[{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1170716682680204889.post-4129274186943868834"},"published":{"$t":"2021-05-24T02:20:00.000-07:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-05-24T02:20:04.640-07:00"},"category":[{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Budget"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Funding Model"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Public Funding"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Public vs. Private"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"The Reality of Governor Newsom's Budget"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-P_ff603zon4\/YKtlyLCk0dI\/AAAAAAAAE_Y\/D6FkUhq6GXk-eqGJ8VNXLLb7zgQO_Pt7QCNcBGAsYHQ\/s2048\/Screen%2BShot%2B2021-05-24%2Bat%2B09.20.23.png\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"1152\" data-original-width=\"2048\" height=\"225\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-P_ff603zon4\/YKtlyLCk0dI\/AAAAAAAAE_Y\/D6FkUhq6GXk-eqGJ8VNXLLb7zgQO_Pt7QCNcBGAsYHQ\/w400-h225\/Screen%2BShot%2B2021-05-24%2Bat%2B09.20.23.png\" width=\"400\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EA few things have happened since California Gov. Gavin \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2021\/01\/shortfall.html\" style=\"text-align: left;\"\u003ENewsom proposed an austerity budget in January\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"text-align: left;\"\u003E.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EState tax receipts came in higher than expected (though \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/uclafacultyassociation.blogspot.com\/2021\/05\/initial-analysis-of-governors-may.html\"\u003Ethey will not rise next year\u003C\/a\u003E).\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EA recall campaign collected signatures amounting to the required 12 percent of registered voters, so Newsom is now running for governor.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EJoe Biden's American Rescue Plan sent the state $27 billion.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EAnd Biden's three big Plans far outstripped anything California Democrats have offered the state since Grey Davis was recalled in 2003, leaving them paddling in Biden's wake.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ENeeding to get out in front of Biden's quasi-New Deal advance, and to show some post-pandemic achievement, on May 14th Newsom announced his \"generational\" state budget, a \"historic, transformational budget.\" \u0026nbsp;Here of course we welcome with open arms Newsom's recognition that solving California's problems means massive government spending, since it is true. The K-12 increases are especially welcome, as are those trying to reduce with the state's long epidemic of houselessness.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EYet like Biden, Newsom sees a narrowed function for four-year colleges and universities, and is funding them accordingly, meaning meagerly.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe press did find his historic numbers hard to follow. \u0026nbsp;Writing in the LA \u003Ci\u003ETimes\u003C\/i\u003E, \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/california\/story\/2021-05-14\/newsom-promises-sweeping-change-california-budget-proposal-surplus\"\u003EJohn Myers noted\u003C\/a\u003E the range of the proposals\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cblockquote style=\"border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;\"\u003E\u003Cp style=\"text-align: left;\"\u003EThe governor’s list of spending priorities, which rely on a surprise cash infusion spread over several years that is projected to ultimately top $100 billion, is dizzying: money to house those who are homeless, support entrepreneurs, train workers, educate students and connect them to the internet, fix roadways, prevent wildfires and strengthen California’s power grid.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cp\u003EHe then added politely, \"It could be some time before the numbers outlined by Newsom can be fully reconciled. The governor frequently uses unorthodox ways to measure state spending, lumping together dollar amounts that span multiple years.\" The $100 billion in economic assistance translates into a budget increase of $40 billion in the current year--still an excellent increase, but one that should be defined correctly.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EReconciliation will involve a couple of simple moves. One is to separate multi-year from single-year numbers. Myers does that in contrasting the headline $100 billion with the annual $40 billion.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe other move that's especially relevant to higher ed budgeting is separating ongoing from one-time funds. The former commits the state to program building over time. The latter does not.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EUC's president and Board of Regents chair issued a statement to say,\u0026nbsp;\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\"\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.6); caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333;\"\u003EThe University of California is deeply grateful to Gov. Newsom for proposing the largest state investment in UC’s history: more than $807 million.\" \u0026nbsp;In his press conference (around minute 52 in the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/archive.org\/details\/dont-miss-your-shot-california-governors-want-you-to-get-the-covid-19-vaccine\/newsom+5-14-21+May+Revise.mp4\"\u003Eversion helpfully archived by Dan Mitchell)\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp;Newsom correctly describes the permanent investment as an increase in $506 million. It's better than the $136 million he proposed in January. But as with all these budget announcements, don't read the headline, read the top line (in the slide at the top).\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.6); caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333;\"\u003EHere's the table that Newsom's Department of Finance published, \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.ebudget.ca.gov\/2021-22\/pdf\/Revised\/BudgetSummary\/HigherEducation.pdf\"\u003Ein the Higher Education section of the May Revision\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-HfoJ_fJC1Nk\/YKrANY1UJFI\/AAAAAAAAE_I\/PuzxWPOwBYUK4Q9kgdrGmugYcWUIDDIDACNcBGAsYHQ\/s1906\/Dept%2Bof%2BFinance%2BHigher%2BEd%2BExpend%2BMay%2BRevision%2BDOF%2B0521.png\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"1382\" data-original-width=\"1906\" height=\"290\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-HfoJ_fJC1Nk\/YKrANY1UJFI\/AAAAAAAAE_I\/PuzxWPOwBYUK4Q9kgdrGmugYcWUIDDIDACNcBGAsYHQ\/w400-h290\/Dept%2Bof%2BFinance%2BHigher%2BEd%2BExpend%2BMay%2BRevision%2BDOF%2B0521.png\" width=\"400\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EThe second row of figures is UC's Ongoing General Fund. Newsom and legislative Democrats cut UC's general fund during the pandemic year; later they decided to give it back, but not until the following year (2021-22).\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EWe can redo the table so that it tracks only the state's permanent commitment to UC, in the form of ongoing general funds. \u0026nbsp;I give the one-time general fund restoration back to the year to which it belongs--2020-21. \u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ctable border=\"1\" cellpadding=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" class=\"MsoTable15Grid4Accent1\" style=\"border-collapse: collapse; border: none; color: black;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd style=\"background-color: #4472c4; border-bottom-color: rgb(68, 114, 196); border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-left-color: rgb(68, 114, 196); border-left-width: 1pt; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-top-color: rgb(68, 114, 196); border-top-width: 1pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 97.55pt;\" valign=\"top\" width=\"130\"\u003E\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: white;\"\u003EUC Ongoing General Fund\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd style=\"background-color: #4472c4; border-bottom-color: rgb(68, 114, 196); border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-style: solid none; border-top-color: rgb(68, 114, 196); border-top-width: 1pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 97.8pt;\" valign=\"top\" width=\"130\"\u003E\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: white;\"\u003E2019-2020\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd style=\"background-color: #4472c4; border-bottom-color: rgb(68, 114, 196); border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-style: solid none; border-top-color: rgb(68, 114, 196); border-top-width: 1pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 93.5pt;\" valign=\"top\" width=\"125\"\u003E\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: white;\"\u003E2020-2021 (with cut retroactively restored)\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd style=\"background-color: #4472c4; border-bottom-color: rgb(68, 114, 196); border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-style: solid none; border-top-color: rgb(68, 114, 196); border-top-width: 1pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 93.5pt;\" valign=\"top\" width=\"125\"\u003E\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: white;\"\u003E2021-2022\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd style=\"background-color: #4472c4; border-bottom-color: rgb(68, 114, 196); border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-right-color: rgb(68, 114, 196); border-right-width: 1pt; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-top-color: rgb(68, 114, 196); border-top-width: 1pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 85.15pt;\" valign=\"top\" width=\"114\"\u003E\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: white;\"\u003E2 year cumulative change\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd style=\"background-color: #d9e2f3; border-bottom-color: rgb(142, 170, 219); border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-left-color: rgb(142, 170, 219); border-left-width: 1pt; border-right-color: rgb(142, 170, 219); border-right-width: 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 97.55pt;\" valign=\"top\" width=\"130\"\u003E\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd style=\"background-color: #d9e2f3; border-bottom-color: rgb(142, 170, 219); border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-right-color: rgb(142, 170, 219); border-right-width: 1pt; border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 97.8pt;\" valign=\"top\" width=\"130\"\u003E\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;\"\u003E$3,724.3 M\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd style=\"background-color: #d9e2f3; border-bottom-color: rgb(142, 170, 219); border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-right-color: rgb(142, 170, 219); border-right-width: 1pt; border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 93.5pt;\" valign=\"top\" width=\"125\"\u003E\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;\"\u003E$3,766.0 M\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd style=\"background-color: #d9e2f3; border-bottom-color: rgb(142, 170, 219); border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-right-color: rgb(142, 170, 219); border-right-width: 1pt; border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 93.5pt;\" valign=\"top\" width=\"125\"\u003E\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;\"\u003E$3972.1\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd style=\"background-color: #d9e2f3; border-bottom-color: rgb(142, 170, 219); border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-right-color: rgb(142, 170, 219); border-right-width: 1pt; border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 85.15pt;\" valign=\"top\" width=\"114\"\u003E\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;\"\u003E6.65%\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe one-year increase is 5.5 percent. Note that UC's GF allocation still falls short of the magic $4 billion ceiling it's been trying to break through for twenty years (in unadjusted dollars, so the real problem is worse--I discussed this issue in \"\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2021\/01\/shortfall.html\"\u003EShortfall,\"\u003C\/a\u003E covering the history that made Newsom's January budget such an affront). \u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThis increase is obviously better, but you don't get to break the $4 B barrier by restoring a cut to permanent general funds one year late. More importantly, an average annual increase of a bit more than 3¼ percent does not qualify as \"the largest state investment in UC history.\" \u0026nbsp;It doesn't justify the \"huge budget boost\" trumpet blast in this LA \u003Ci\u003ETimes\u003C\/i\u003E \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/california\/story\/2021-05-14\/uc-cal-state-community-colleges-get-historic-budget-hike\"\u003Eheadline\u003C\/a\u003E, or the statement cosigned by UC president Drake and board chair Pérez.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThere are other commitments, all one time, where the main money goes to 2 things: workforce preparedness and student housing. \u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EState underfunding has helped turn student housing into a scandal of private development leading to overpricing, blown open this March when \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.voiceofsandiego.org\/topics\/education\/ucsd-students-faculty-push-back-against-steep-rent-hikes\/\"\u003EUCSD housing announced average rent increases for doctoral and professional students of 31 percent.\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp;Newsom proposes $4 billion (over 2 years) for a \"low-cost student housing grant program focused on expanding the availability of affordable student housing.\" The money may well go subsidize the private developers that helped cause the affordability problem--details are sparse. \u0026nbsp;It's a major problem, but would best be solved by the state restarting continuing allocations to capital projects, which it ended around 2006.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EFor the workforce, Newsom proposes $1 billion (over 2 years) \"to establish the Learning-Aligned Employment program, which would promote learning-aligned, long-term career development for UC, CSU, and CCC students.\" The money would form a permanent endowment. \u0026nbsp;Again there are no details: much better student advising is not mentioned, but employer partnerships are, so it may turn out to be a state subsidy for apprenticeship programs.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ENewsom proposes little or nothing in core needs. \u0026nbsp;Deferred Maintenance, a \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2019\/01\/new-governor-new-higher-ed-support.html\"\u003Eproblem totaling tens of billions\u003C\/a\u003E, gets $325 million in one-time funding, which for DM is a contradiction in terms. UCLA's Asian American Studies Center gets $5 million in one-time funding to research \"the prevention of hate incidents.\" He recommends $40 million more than that for the animal shelter medicine program at Davis.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EA better way to fight racist hate crimes would be to fully fund critical ethnic studies, gender, queer, and trans studies, political theory, sociology, history, and the other non-STEM fields that study these issues systematically and have long offered detailed solutions. That is not happening, and I will return to this issue a bit later this year.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ENewsom's thinking aligns with Biden's and the national party in a few important ways. They both continue the decades-old drift toward giving public funds to students rather than to institutions. \u0026nbsp;Student money escapes the instructional and (non-sponsored) research core, whose complexity and costs keep rising, but whose growth in operating money does not keep up.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ESecond, they are using higher ed as a kind of renewed welfare state. Newsom knows it is politically hard to address the state's housing affordability crisis by with a massive public housing program for working- and middle-class people, but fairly easy to subsidize private developers to build public housing for students. \u0026nbsp;The public colleges' working poor would be affordably housed for a few years.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe same goes for health and related social services (legal support for undocumented students, food security, transition support for formerly incarcerated students). \u0026nbsp;I favor this full suite of public support systems--it's the point of the Real College movement--but want them to be integrated into the society at large, funded through progressive taxation of the overall population, and not used as a \u003Ci\u003Esubstitute\u003C\/i\u003E for funding advanced education. \u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThird, Newsom and Biden see higher education as workforce training for economic growth. They also tie that mainly to community colleges rather than to four-year degrees. \u0026nbsp;Newsom bundles his two biggest one-time programs into an aggregate with a largish headline number that must be shared by the 3 segments, and which treats the segments and their students as the same. \u0026nbsp;Newsom is joining Biden in demoting four-year colleges, which is an anti-progressive trend that universities will need to fight.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThis budget is a lot better than a cut. But it's not the New New Deal. \u0026nbsp;I'd feel better about where it might lead had president Drake and board chair Pérez described it accurately and set out ongoing needs. \u0026nbsp;But they did not. \u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EHere's an update of the January chart, for context.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-SpDkUYlvE2o\/YKtvg2TNluI\/AAAAAAAAE_g\/tpenSQENddUXhzJ3lNdbQLyvV7nuCHZCACNcBGAsYHQ\/s1736\/State%2BFunds%2Bfor%2BUC%2BNominal%2BDollars%2B052421.png\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"932\" data-original-width=\"1736\" height=\"215\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-SpDkUYlvE2o\/YKtvg2TNluI\/AAAAAAAAE_g\/tpenSQENddUXhzJ3lNdbQLyvV7nuCHZCACNcBGAsYHQ\/w400-h215\/State%2BFunds%2Bfor%2BUC%2BNominal%2BDollars%2B052421.png\" width=\"400\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/feeds\/4129274186943868834\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2021\/05\/the-reality-of-governor-newsoms-budget.html#comment-form","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/1170716682680204889\/posts\/default\/4129274186943868834"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/1170716682680204889\/posts\/default\/4129274186943868834"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2021\/05\/the-reality-of-governor-newsoms-budget.html","title":"The Reality of Governor Newsom's Budget"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Chris Newfield"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/01078395415386100872"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1170716682680204889.post-8483702448020178274"},"published":{"$t":"2020-03-22T12:37:00.001-07:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-05-02T12:11:39.332-07:00"},"category":[{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Covid-19"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"health care"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Privatization"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Public Funding"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"public goods"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Public vs. Private"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Quantification"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Research"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Coverging Crises Part I: Covid Shutdown Theory (Updated)"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-18r8nGYwdME\/XnK4bSSRG1I\/AAAAAAAAEYY\/AhRHKmoLlPEvko85bu4gTQsHZ_X2MU93wCNcBGAsYHQ\/s1600\/pandemic-virus-globe.jpg\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"500\" data-original-width=\"750\" height=\"213\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-18r8nGYwdME\/XnK4bSSRG1I\/AAAAAAAAEYY\/AhRHKmoLlPEvko85bu4gTQsHZ_X2MU93wCNcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/pandemic-virus-globe.jpg\" width=\"320\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EShutdowns are now spreading as fast as the coronavirus. On March 19, Gov. Gavin Newsom \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.cdph.ca.gov\/Programs\/CID\/DCDC\/Pages\/Guidance.aspx\"\u003Eordered 40 million Californians to stay home\u003C\/a\u003E, claiming that the infection rate puts the state on track for 25.5 million infections.\u0026nbsp; The order has no end date.\u0026nbsp; New York and other states and counties have since followed suit: by noon on March 21st, \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/news\/world\/75-million-americans-under-virtual-lockdown-after-italy-suffers-huge-n1165591\"\u003E75 million US residents \u003C\/a\u003Ewere under some kind of lockdown.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EIn this post I'm going to talk about what I've learned during a sustained effort to apply analytical expertise to a topic outside of my normal subject areas, as I try to build a base for a series of citizen judgements about health policy, and also the related areas of educational and economic policy that I know more about.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EThis learning process has changed my mind about a number of Covid-related issues: for example, when I learned March 10th of UCSB's shutdown--at the end of my senior seminar, thanks to Jenna, multitasking on her email again!--I was a skeptic about the benefits of widespread closures. Now I'm a believer: I think that widespread social distancing is our only chance to avoid levels of infection that would overwhelm hospitals and clinics and lead to much excess death.\u0026nbsp; At the same time, I'm also more optimistic about reducing infections than I was a week ago.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EThe main part of this post close-reads the one published infection model that I've been able to find-\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.imperial.ac.uk\/media\/imperial-college\/medicine\/sph\/ide\/gida-fellowships\/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf\"\u003ENeil Ferguson et al.'s paper,\u003C\/a\u003E from Imperial College London.\u0026nbsp; The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has not released its modeling, though it was \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/03\/13\/us\/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html?referringSource=articleShare\"\u003Ediscussed in a bootleg version\u003C\/a\u003E by the New York \u003Ci\u003ETimes.\u003C\/i\u003E\u0026nbsp; My caveat up front is that the SARS-CoV-2 infection model I analyze does not offer any certainty about the future. But I will talk about the powers of the suppression regime we've entered into, and how the disease might be made less deadly than many of us now assume.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EAn overview:\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cul\u003E\u003Cli\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EThe policy of virus \u003Ci\u003Esuppression\u003C\/i\u003E does appear to reduce Covid-19's  spread. I'll define this and other terms below, since terminology is all over  the place in media reports. (The one journalist I've found to have \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/03\/20\/opinion\/sunday\/coronavirus-outcomes.html\"\u003Einterviewed Neil Ferguson\u003C\/a\u003E--Nicholas Kristof of the New York \u003Ci\u003ETimes\u003C\/i\u003E--conflates \u003Ci\u003Emitigation\u003C\/i\u003E and \u003Ci\u003Esuppression\u003C\/i\u003E.)\u0026nbsp; Suppression has worked well in South  Korea, Singapore, and post-lockdown Hubei in China when social  distancing is combined with mass testing.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E The U.S. simply does not have the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/california\/story\/2020-03-19\/coronavirus-patients-not-tested-not-counted\"\u003Etesting\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/03\/20\/world\/europe\/coronavirus-testing-world-countries-cities-states.html?searchResultPosition=5\"\u003Ecapability\u003C\/a\u003E to do the most effective form of suppression.\u0026nbsp; (Santa Barbara County has \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2018\/01\/when-we-didnt-burn.html\"\u003Ebrilliant\u003C\/a\u003E and frequently exercised emergency services.\u0026nbsp; As of March 22nd it has \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.independent.com\/2020\/03\/21\/santa-barbara-covid-19-cases-reach-double-digits\/\"\u003E13 confirmed\u003C\/a\u003E Covid-19 cases, a shortage of test kits, and 2\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.independent.com\/2020\/03\/20\/santa-barbara-health-officer-we-now-have-widespread-community-infection\/?fbclid=IwAR2mEkInfekZX_GEc-wDvHFoqYbykIKgOt__YBgRFEQXBxV2O2DB5HzdRZg\"\u003E00 tests out \u003C\/a\u003Ewhose results won't be in for awhile.) The U.S. has not been able to do contact-tracing, which would have allowed a much more efficient form of isolation than the mass version we're doing now.\u0026nbsp; In spite of some encouraging reports of new equipment coming on line, the U.S. is in the midst of what statistician John A. Ioannidis calls an\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.statnews.com\/2020\/03\/17\/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data\/\"\u003E \"evidence fiasco,\"\u003C\/a\u003E and its public health capacities have been downsized (personnel down 20 percent since 2008, according to \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.leftbusinessobserver.com\/Radio.html#S200319\"\u003EDavid Himmelstein\u003C\/a\u003E) to the point that we're likely stuck with the crudest, most disruptive, and most economically damaging form of suppression.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EThis has implications for rebuilding social and public capabilities that  I'll save for a later post on how SARS-CoV-2 is putting neoliberalism  out of its misery--and how to keep that from causing further misery for diverse publics. \u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EA theory point: public officials are using projections of high infection and death rates to install suppression regimes, but these suppression regimes are designed to invalidate the numbers that justify them (by producing much lower rates of infection and death).\u0026nbsp; Either you infect 81 percent of California by doing nothing, \u003Ci\u003Eor \u003C\/i\u003Eyou lockdown California and get a much lower infection percentage.\u0026nbsp; You don't do both.\u0026nbsp; I elaborate on this point because it's important for people \u003Ci\u003Enot \u003C\/i\u003Eto think \u003Ci\u003Elockdown = death \u003C\/i\u003E(regardless)\u003Ci\u003E,\u003C\/i\u003E but to think the opposite.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EA policy point: public officials must not bullshit the public with exaggerated numbers, withheld models (CDC!), and mashup policies that will encourage cheating. Newsom did the right thing, but he didn't give clear, honest reasons for it.\u0026nbsp; That has to change.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/li\u003E\u003C\/ul\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003ETo take the last point first: Where \u003Ci\u003Edid\u003C\/i\u003E Newsom get the number that he used to shut down most of the state economy without an end date? We don't actually know. The LA \u003Ci\u003ETimes \u003C\/i\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/california\/story\/2020-03-19\/gavin-newsom-california-1-billion-federal-aid-coronavirus\"\u003Ereports\u003C\/a\u003E, \"the governor’s office declined to provide an explanation of the state’s  projection that 25.5 million Californians will be infected with this  virus. Instead, a spokesman for the governor said the state’s mitigation  efforts could lower that estimate.\"\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EThe last part is true (though \"mitigation\" is the wrong word, as I'll explain), but the public should be told the source.\u0026nbsp; In the meantime, I'll guess that Newsom's people got that number from the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.imperial.ac.uk\/media\/imperial-college\/medicine\/sph\/ide\/gida-fellowships\/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf\"\u003Enow-famous pandemic modeling paper\u003C\/a\u003E I mentioned at the top, Ferguson et al. Their baseline reproduction number (Ro) for the disease is 2.4--meaning each case typically goes on to infect 2.4 other  people. You can get to 25.5 million Covid-19 infections by taking California's Covid infection count when Newsom spoke--around 1000--and giving it an exponent of  2.45.\u0026nbsp; (\u003Cu\u003EUpdated: \u003C\/u\u003ESee Akos Rona-Tas's correction of this speculation below, under March 23.)\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EThe Ferguson paper derived that Ro in part from from  the spread of the virus in Wuhan, China, before the government began its  many non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs)--forced quarantining,  widespread testing, etc.\u0026nbsp; (Wuhan's Ro was \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/mronline.org\/2020\/01\/29\/notes-on-a-novel-coronavirus\/\"\u003Epreviously reported\u003C\/a\u003E as 3.11).\u0026nbsp; The projection that 56 percent of  the California population will become infected appeared as a math error in \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.gov.ca.gov\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/3.18.20-Letter-USNS-Mercy-Hospital-Ship.pdf\"\u003ENewsom's letter to Trump \u003C\/a\u003Erequesting  a hospital ship: it's actually 64 percent, or alternately, 39.56  million Californians * 0.56 = 22.15 million inflections.\u0026nbsp; The point isn't the bad math but the need to offer credible numbers and explain clearly where they come from.\u0026nbsp; People will take honest, fully disclosed estimates more seriously.\u0026nbsp; Health policy needs to be \u003Ci\u003Eopen\u003C\/i\u003E to establish the trust that government now desperately needs, to discourage cheating, and to allow meaningful democratic judgment about overall policy.\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EPublic officials, including Newsom, seem to be now focused on using big numbers to stampede the masses into social distancing, RTFN. This is understandable, since, in the suppression arsenal, social distancing is pretty much all we've got.\u0026nbsp; But one major effect of their statements is to muddle the difference between \u003Ci\u003Emitigating\u003C\/i\u003E and \u003Ci\u003Esuppressing\u003C\/i\u003E a pandemics: the former allows infection rates like 55 percent. The latter slows growth rates and can put them into reverse.\u0026nbsp; Suppression also requires a rigor that people won't pursue if they don't understand the massive difference it can make. \u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003ETo put this in the form of a question, could the U.S. and the European Union (and other regions) achieve \u003Ci\u003Esuppression\u003C\/i\u003E and thus decline in the number of new cases?\u0026nbsp; The \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/projects\/california-coronavirus-cases-tracking-outbreak\/#nt=1PromoSuperLeadLarge-1col-7030col1-main\"\u003Ecurrent tracking in California \u003C\/a\u003Eis not good.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-X95kncuXnIs\/Xnbhrg2NHdI\/AAAAAAAAEZU\/2hGRpZLnA9AQrzzDlpl5KUVD5QJfFFj7gCNcBGAsYHQ\/s1600\/Screen%2BShot%2B2020-03-21%2Bat%2B8.54.54%2BPM.png\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"979\" data-original-width=\"1560\" height=\"250\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-X95kncuXnIs\/Xnbhrg2NHdI\/AAAAAAAAEZU\/2hGRpZLnA9AQrzzDlpl5KUVD5QJfFFj7gCNcBGAsYHQ\/s400\/Screen%2BShot%2B2020-03-21%2Bat%2B8.54.54%2BPM.png\" width=\"400\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EBut look at\u0026nbsp; the South Korean case pattern.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-RaGuCoCdS3c\/XnTnu7Kut8I\/AAAAAAAAEYo\/K3pGOeH1lKU3nNdfiiY3N5wb82QVYH7vgCNcBGAsYHQ\/s1600\/Korea%2BCDC%2B032020.png\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"1040\" data-original-width=\"1600\" height=\"258\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-RaGuCoCdS3c\/XnTnu7Kut8I\/AAAAAAAAEYo\/K3pGOeH1lKU3nNdfiiY3N5wb82QVYH7vgCNcBGAsYHQ\/s400\/Korea%2BCDC%2B032020.png\" width=\"400\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003ESouth Korea had our hockey stick and has now bent it down into slower growth of new cases.\u0026nbsp; As is now widely discussed, South Korea, \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/03\/17\/world\/asia\/coronavirus-singapore-hong-kong-taiwan.html\"\u003ESingapore\u003C\/a\u003E, Hong Kong, \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/jamanetwork.com\/journals\/jama\/fullarticle\/2762689\"\u003ETaiwan\u003C\/a\u003E, and \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.xinhuanet.com\/english\/2020-03\/20\/c_138897280.htm\"\u003Enow Wuhan\u003C\/a\u003E have \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencemag.org\/news\/2020\/03\/coronavirus-cases-have-dropped-sharply-south-korea-whats-secret-its-success\"\u003Eslowed\u003C\/a\u003E the spread.\u0026nbsp; This is the effect of \u003Ci\u003Esuppression\u003C\/i\u003E strategies.\u0026nbsp; There's some important news here, which is that Covid-19 infections rates can be reduced, and its case-mortality rate can be kept low (not the 3.4 percent reported by the World Health Organization, but about \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.cdc.go.kr\/board\/board.es?mid=a30402000000\u0026amp;bid=0030\"\u003E1 percent in South Korea\u003C\/a\u003E, or 0.54 percent for cases under age 60).\u0026nbsp; Germany currently has a \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2020\/mar\/22\/germany-low-coronavirus-mortality-rate-puzzles-experts\"\u003E0.3 percent case-mortality rate\u003C\/a\u003E. SARS-CoV-2 kills people by doing horrible damage to their lungs (see the images around 0'30\" in \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/drive.google.com\/file\/u\/1\/d\/1ExtjioWlOaXHHx-7I-ftfsJH5Ugl9DUm\/view?usp=drive_web\u0026amp;usp=embed_facebook\"\u003Ethis\u003C\/a\u003E Santa Barbara Cottage Health grand rounds lecture).\u0026nbsp; And yet the virus does so little to so many other victims that \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/science.sciencemag.org\/content\/early\/2020\/03\/13\/science.abb3221\"\u003E86 percent of cases in China were undocumented\u003C\/a\u003E prior to travel restrictions.\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EOn to the model: the Ferguson et al. paper draws on previous work with influenza pandemics to compare three responses-- \u003Ci\u003Edoing nothing, mitigation,\u003C\/i\u003E and \u003Ci\u003Esuppression\u003C\/i\u003E.\u0026nbsp; Doing nothing seems to have been the preferred option of the Boris Johnson and Donald Trump governments until about March 15th-16th\u0026nbsp; (\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.buzzfeed.com\/alexwickham\/coronavirus-uk-strategy-deaths\"\u003EJohnson\u003C\/a\u003E, \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/03\/16\/world\/live-coronavirus-news-updates.html#link-4591d2bc\"\u003ETrump\u003C\/a\u003E), with the Johnson government allegedly working on a trust that infection would create \"herd immunity\" without disrupting the economy.\u0026nbsp; At least in the UK, they seem to have taken on board the Ferguson et al. calculations that \"doing nothing\" will lead to infection in 81 percent of the population (at\u0026nbsp; 2.4 Ro), producing 510,000 deaths in the UK, plus 2.2 million deaths in the United States, both over a 2 year period.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EWith doing nothing now ruled out, the alternatives that Ferguson et al. modeled are \u003Ci\u003Emitigation \u003C\/i\u003Eor \u003Ci\u003Esuppression\u003C\/i\u003E. Suppression is China after January 23rd and South Korea, among others; \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.buzzfeed.com\/alexwickham\/coronavirus-uk-strategy-deaths\"\u003EBritain is moving to suppression\u003C\/a\u003E with \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2020\/mar\/20\/london-pubs-cinemas-and-gyms-may-close-in-covid-19-clampdown\"\u003Eone escalating announcement\u003C\/a\u003E after \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2020\/mar\/22\/uk-could-face-italy-style-lockdown-warns-boris-johnson\"\u003Eanother\u003C\/a\u003E (which may defeat the purpose).\u0026nbsp; Some parts of the U.S. are now doing suppression, including New York and California. The Ferguson paper divides these two strategies into two groups of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs).\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp;The most effective set of mitigation measures are: \u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cul\u003E\u003Cli\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003ECase isolation in the home (CI): symptomatic cases stay at home for 7 days.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EVoluntary home quarantine (HQ): all members of a household with a case stay home for 14 days\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003ESocial distancing of those over age 70 (SDO).\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/li\u003E\u003C\/ul\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003ENote that this falls short of \"lockdown,\" which includes social distancing for the whole population (SD) and, in most cases, \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/03\/18\/us\/politics\/education-schools-coronavirus.html\"\u003Eclosures of schools\u003C\/a\u003E and \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/19wJZekxpewDQmApULkvZRBpBwcnd5gZlZF2SEU2WQD8\/htmlview?pru=AAABcOo1-zM*lC_O9CYqi04BUhKklWQp-w#gid=0\"\u003Euniversities.\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EMitigation is the famous \"flattening the curve.\" The serious cases that  need hospital services are pushed out over time, with the goal of relieving some of the stress on the health care  system. Mitigation is \"predicted to reduce peak critical care demand by two-thirds and halve the number of deaths\" (8).\u0026nbsp; Assuming the ratio of infections to critical care cases is constant, and that the syntax means mitigation yields 2\/3rds of the \"do nothing\" infection rate, this leads to 54 percent of the population being infected, and to 1.1 million deaths in the U.S.\u0026nbsp; (When \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/03\/20\/opinion\/sunday\/coronavirus-outcomes.html\"\u003EKristof quotes Ferguson\u003C\/a\u003E saying his best case is 1.1 million deaths, I think he ran Ferguson et al.'s two regimes together: in my view, the sentence should read, \"his best case \u003Cu\u003Efor mitigation\u003C\/u\u003E\" is 1.1 million deaths.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EClearly mitigation isn't good enough.\u0026nbsp; A million deaths in the U.S. is unacceptable, and the model suggests that under mitigation health care systems will still be overwhelmed (10). Since something like \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.commondreams.org\/news\/2020\/03\/11\/italys-hospitals-overwhelmed-coronavirus-top-health-official-says-worst-yet-come-us\"\u003EItaly's hospital crisis\u003C\/a\u003E and high fatalities are the combination everyone wants to avoid, the UK, the EU, California, and now several other U.S. states have moved into suppression. \u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EA side note: I would normally read the quotation to mean that mitigation reduces peak care demand (and infections) by 2\/3rds, down to 1\/3rd of their previous level, which is a 27 percent infection rate.\u0026nbsp; I don't know if that's what Ferguson et al. meant, but it's still more than \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.livescience.com\/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html\"\u003Edouble this year's seasonal flu rate\u003C\/a\u003E (so far this season, flu has killed 22,000 Americans).\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EMuch of the U.S. is now following Italy, France, Spain, and other countries into \u003Ci\u003Esuppression. \u003C\/i\u003EThe key benefit is that it reduces the reproduction number (Ro) to close to 1 or below, which China has shown is feasible.\u0026nbsp; Here's a nice \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.worldometers.info\/coronavirus\/country\/china\/\"\u003Estretch goal for the West\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-yU-jBrvQW5k\/Xne7nxka50I\/AAAAAAAAEZg\/5RfEzDEvd4w8FtXhfVixNM8bxpSCb6OaACNcBGAsYHQ\/s1600\/Screen%2BShot%2B2020-03-22%2Bat%2B12.25.00%2BPM.png\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"1243\" data-original-width=\"1600\" height=\"310\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-yU-jBrvQW5k\/Xne7nxka50I\/AAAAAAAAEZg\/5RfEzDEvd4w8FtXhfVixNM8bxpSCb6OaACNcBGAsYHQ\/s400\/Screen%2BShot%2B2020-03-22%2Bat%2B12.25.00%2BPM.png\" width=\"400\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp;In the Ferguson et al. model, suppression adds to mitigation's measures:\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cul\u003E\u003Cli\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003Eschool and university closures (PC)\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003Esocial distancing expanded to the whole population (SD)\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/li\u003E\u003C\/ul\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EI've reproduced the table that shows the results. I'd recommend starting in column 1 with the baseline Ro of 2.4 (510,000 \"do nothing\" deaths) and look at the medium case of 200 (which means that the full suppression program is suspended when ICU cases fall below 200 in Great Britain, and are re-engaged when they rise above that number). (The paper does not have a similar table for the U.S.)\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-It0_pdI1nk4\/XnVAy6JMqKI\/AAAAAAAAEZA\/1-0egjqOKLI0_qEH19uXISvcU7PdKtQKwCNcBGAsYHQ\/s1600\/COvid%2BSuppresson%2BFerguson%2Bet%2Bal%2BTable%2B4%2B031620.png\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"975\" data-original-width=\"1600\" height=\"243\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-It0_pdI1nk4\/XnVAy6JMqKI\/AAAAAAAAEZA\/1-0egjqOKLI0_qEH19uXISvcU7PdKtQKwCNcBGAsYHQ\/s400\/COvid%2BSuppresson%2BFerguson%2Bet%2Bal%2BTable%2B4%2B031620.png\" width=\"400\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003ECalifornia is now doing the full suppression program.\u0026nbsp; If you look at the right-hand column under Total Deaths you can see the results.\u0026nbsp; Deaths in Great Britain drop from 510,000 to 24,000, or by a factor of around 20.\u0026nbsp; The U.S. equivalent would be 110,000 deaths, not Kristof's 1.1 million.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003ENote two other features of this model.\u0026nbsp; The interventions all have finite periods: mitigation is modeled over 3 months (to mid-June 2020) and suppression over 5 months (to mid-August 2020).\u0026nbsp; They don't extend to the full 18 month \"vaccine\" period, nor are they open-ended.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003ESecond, they are adjusted according to thresholds of infection and hospitalization that can be selected and monitored.\u0026nbsp; Governments have a great deal of agency here.\u0026nbsp; In other words, this new coronavirus is bad, but it is not an irresistible event like a giant asteroid hitting the earth.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EA big catch is that the versions of suppression in South Korea, Taiwain, Hong Kong, Singapore, and China include \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/world-nation\/story\/2020-03-14\/south-koreas-rapid-coronavirus-testing-far-ahead-of-the-u-s-could-be-a-matter-of-life-and-death\"\u003Emass testing\u003C\/a\u003E.\u0026nbsp; Neither the US nor the UK \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/news\/world\/americas\/coronavirus-us-tests-kits-how-many-cdc-south-korea-a9398231.html\"\u003Ehave done this\u003C\/a\u003E, nor do we seen to have the capability to ramp this up.\u0026nbsp; There's been \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/03\/19\/opinion\/coronavirus-testing.html?searchResultPosition=13\"\u003Emuch\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.newyorker.com\/news\/news-desk\/what-went-wrong-with-coronavirus-testing-in-the-us\"\u003Eexcoriating\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/opinions\/2020\/03\/13\/coronavirus-is-an-indictment-our-way-life\/\"\u003Ecommentary\u003C\/a\u003E on this point.\u0026nbsp;                  \u003Cspan style=\"font-family: \u0026quot;inherit\u0026quot; , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;\"\u003EI had been hoping that UC Health could make a big difference to California public health. A potentially exciting March 14th headline, \u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: \u0026quot;calibri\u0026quot; , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/california\/story\/2020-03-14\/uc-ramps-up-in-house-testing-for-coronavirus-in-move-to-slow-the-pandemic\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: blue; font-family: \u0026quot;inherit\u0026quot; , serif; mso-bidi-font-family: \u0026quot;Times New Roman\u0026quot;; mso-fareast-font-family: \u0026quot;Times New Roman\u0026quot;;\"\u003E\"UC has a solution to the national shortage of coronavirus testing,\"\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: \u0026quot;inherit\u0026quot; , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;\"\u003E didn't, with our weak public sector, mean UC is gearing up mass testing for the public, but that it \u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: \u0026quot;calibri\u0026quot; , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/cnewf\/status\/1239010370573840386\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: blue; font-family: \u0026quot;inherit\u0026quot; , serif; mso-bidi-font-family: \u0026quot;Times New Roman\u0026quot;; mso-fareast-font-family: \u0026quot;Times New Roman\u0026quot;;\"\u003Ehas a private test for its own patients\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: \u0026quot;inherit\u0026quot; , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;\"\u003E.\u0026nbsp; I've heard ambitious UC plans--in this week's board meetings, one UC regent suggested for the installation of MASH hospitals on empty land that UC owns. But because of testing and equipment shortages, UC medical centers have to focus on protecting themselves (see 0'44\"-0'49\" or so in this very \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=UafK-4vMr8M\"\u003Euseful UCSF infectious diseases division' grand rounds\u003C\/a\u003E).\u003C\/span\u003EI'll end by adding a few items to the summary list above:\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cul\u003E\u003Cli\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EThe virus is going to be terrible for public health workers, who deserve not only massive sympathy and support but also personal protective equipment, which they \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/03\/21\/business\/coronavirus-masks-hanes-trump.html\"\u003Emay now have more hope of getting\u003C\/a\u003E.\u0026nbsp; Mass testing also depends on cranking out PPE.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EPublic health interventions in Asia have had enough success with suppression to give\u0026nbsp; credibility to the Imperial College model--most interestingly, its suggestion that deaths can be reduced by an order of magnitude.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EOn the other hand, hospital access remains a potential catastrophe.\u0026nbsp; Full suppression reduces ICU need to 1\/3rd of \"doing nothing.\"\u0026nbsp; In the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/03\/13\/us\/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html\"\u003Ebootlegged C.D.C.’s scenarios\u003C\/a\u003E, \"2.4  million to 21 million people in the United States could require  hospitalization, potentially crushing the nation’s medical system, which  has \u003Ca class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aha.org\/statistics\/fast-facts-us-hospitals\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"\"\u003Eonly about 925,000 staffed hospital beds\u003C\/a\u003E. Fewer than a tenth of those are for people who are critically ill.\"\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EStill, suppression seems to make a big difference even if it is leaky: the Ferguson et al modeling assumed incomplete success and still got major reductions (see Table 2 on page 6).\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EThe US has a weak health system (or no health \"system\" at all, as Robert Reich \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/commentisfree\/2020\/mar\/15\/america-public-health-system-coronavirus-trump?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other\"\u003Erightly observes\u003C\/a\u003E). This is a big problem. But the US has some other advantages: a lot of really good, dedicated health personnel, lower population density than Europe's or East Asia's and, ironically, dependency on the self-isolating feature of private cars.\u0026nbsp; Our version of suppression might be more successful than we now expect.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EOfficials should give expiration dates to the current suppression regimes. They can be extended later, depending on conditions.\u0026nbsp; As I noted, the Ferguson et al. model assumes a kind of regular adjusting depending on infection numbers. (Hong Kong has \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-asia-china-51921515\"\u003Ereimposed\u003C\/a\u003E quarantine and testing on arrivals after an uptick in cases.) Indefinite lockdowns are bad for both people and the economy.\u0026nbsp; Once people are scared indoors, and the infection curve is bent like South Korea's, governments should throw the lockdown into partial reverse, lest they create another Great Depression x 2.4.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/li\u003E\u003C\/ul\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EI'll move on to political, economic, and university dimensions in other posts.\u0026nbsp; From the Haley Street Bunker: stay well, and keep your distance!\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EMonday March 23rd\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EStatistical chemist Michael Levitt\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/science\/story\/2020-03-22\/coronavirus-outbreak-nobel-laureate\"\u003E hammers on one of this post's key points\u003C\/a\u003E: \"\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003EThe virus can grow exponentially only when it is undetected and no one is acting to control it.\"\u0026nbsp; The media, he says, should focus not on total number of cumulative cases but on rates of growth of new cases.\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESpeaking of which,\u0026nbsp; South Korea's number dropped again, so the chart looks a \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.cdc.go.kr\/board\/board.es?mid=a30402000000\u0026amp;bid=0030\"\u003Ebit better today\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003EThe coming U.S. health crisis will owe much to a social system that can't anticipate non-market public needs. \u0026nbsp; That's not what \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/health\/government-scrambling-to-advise-hospitals-that-run-out-of-basic-supplies\/2020\/03\/21\/d9c36702-6b88-11ea-abef-020f086a3fab_story.html\"\u003Ethis WaPo piece\u003C\/a\u003E says in so many words, but it has all the raw material--shortages of masks, gowns, tests, ventilators.\u0026nbsp; What aren't we short of Covid-wise?\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/03\/22\/opinion\/health\/ventilator-shortage-coronavirus-solution.html?referringSource=articleShare\"\u003EThis piece\u003C\/a\u003E, by a Mass General physician, specifies how the market power of large hospitals will mal-distribute emergency equipment: \"We are currently taking an every-hospital-system-for-themselves  approach, in which some hospitals will surely say “we’ll take them all”  while others will lack the capital to make such large \u003Ca class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/health\/2020\/03\/18\/ventilator-shortage-hospital-icu-coronavirus\/\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"\"\u003Epurchases in advance\u003C\/a\u003E and therefore will be reliant on FEMA, which will be forced to ration  scarce, lifesaving equipment. These already cash-strapped hospitals  serving poorer populations will soon be put in even greater jeopardy.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cu\u003EFrom Akos Ronas-Tas \u003C\/u\u003E(Prof of Sociology, UC San Diego): How Newsom got his numbers (over half of Californians being infected) is a mystery, but it is surely not by raising 1000 to the power of 2.45. I am no epidemiologist either, but the Ro produces an estimate only if you specify how many generations of infections you count. So if the base (generation 0) is 1000 and Ro is 2.4 (used by Ferguson), the first generation will be 1000*2.4=2400, the second generation 2400*2.40 = 5760 and so on. The total number infected will be by then 1000+2400+5760=9160, adding up generations 0,1 and 2. In the Ferguson paper they use a 6.5 day generation time. The key here is that Newsom made his prediction for 8 weeks out. So he is counting roughly 8 generations. The number of newly infected in the 8th generation will be 1000*2.4^8=1,100,753. You have to add to this those from the earlier generations. That will give you the total number of those infected (roughly, 1.9 million). Some of them will have recovered by then and happily immune, others would have died. I don’t see how this adds up to 25.5 million, either as the number of all people who have ever been infected, let alone all people needing care at a certain date. \u0026nbsp;You would get to a cumulative 26 million in 11 generations with 15 million new infections. That is 71.5 days, 10 weeks, still only late May.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EYou can make the model more complicated. Ferguson assumed a variable R in each generation and it should also vary across generation as the number of people getting immunity increases.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/gabgoh.github.io\/COVID\/index.html\"\u003EHere is a nice calculator\u003C\/a\u003E that adds a few other considerations.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe real scary numbers come from the healthcare system. There are only 74,000 hospital beds in California, and 6,300 in SD \u0026nbsp;county, only 32% of which are available. This is probably similar in the state overall. But what you really need is ICU beds (only 800 available in SD county). There are about 50,000 ICU beds in the entire US and about 100,000 respirators. And you also have to add to this that beds, even ICU beds are useless unless you have trained personnel attending to them. So if we suppose only 2 million people being sick at the same time in CA, and only 10% \u0026nbsp;(100,000) needing hospital beds and only 4% (40,000) ICU beds, we have a major catastrophe.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003ETuesday, March 24\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003EOn the duration of the shutdown, \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.democracynow.org\/2020\/3\/24\/jeffrey_sachs_congress_economic_relief_package\"\u003EJeffrey Sachs invokes\u003C\/a\u003E the example of China. Their ironclad version of suppression, including mass testing, suggests the spread of SARS-CoV-2 can be stopped in 60 days.\u0026nbsp; Sachs says 60-90 days.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003EThis is not what's happening in Italy, where exasperated mayors \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/protectheflames\/status\/1242190140757458945?s=20\"\u003Eberate their citizenry.\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Ci\u003EBuzzfeed\u003C\/i\u003E does funniest \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.buzzfeed.com\/farrahpenn\/pure-and-wholesome-quarantine-people-coronavirus\"\u003Ehome videos for the Covid quarantine\u003C\/a\u003E.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003EAs India's government orders a \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2020\/03\/india-extends-lockdown-coronavirus-appears-small-towns-200324094240568.html\"\u003E3-week \"total lockdown,\"\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp; nearly \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2020\/03\/23\/us\/coronavirus-which-states-stay-at-home-order-trnd\/index.html\"\u003E60 percent of the U.S. population is not under stay-at-home orders\u003C\/a\u003E or being mass-tested.\u0026nbsp; The U.S. is therefore not, overall, doing suppression, but \u003Ci\u003Emitigation\u003C\/i\u003E of SARS-CoV-2.\u0026nbsp; Note that this predicts some \"flattening of the curve\" of infection--reducing but not eliminating the overload on health care-- but \u003Ci\u003Enot\u003C\/i\u003E reversing the spread of the disease (Ro stays above 1). Some red state politicians are actively resisting social distancing (\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/talkingpointsmemo.com\/news\/texas-dan-patrick-grandparents-sacrifice-lives-coronavirus-economy\"\u003ETexas\u003C\/a\u003E, \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/crooksandliars.com\/2020\/03\/mississippi-governor-refuses-act\"\u003EMississippi\u003C\/a\u003E), as is \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/aponline\/2020\/03\/23\/business\/bc-us-virus-outbreak-economy-vs-health.html\"\u003EPOTUS himself.\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003ESpeaking of testing, \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/california\/story\/2020-03-24\/california-coronavirus-outbreak-testing\"\u003ECalifornia is way behind New York, working \"piecemeal.\"\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\"tr_bq\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003EThis piecemeal approach, said Harvard epidemiologist Michael Mina, is a key problem with testing in California and nationwide.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E \u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\"tr_bq\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E“We  have a decentralized healthcare system and we have no way to scale for  government means,” Mina said. “Everything is privatized, everything is  individualized in our country and it’s become our Achilles’ heel in this  case.”\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp; \u003Cb\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003EWednesday, March 25\u003C\/b\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003Cb\u003E It's Bailout Day!\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003ENYT \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/03\/25\/us\/politics\/whats-in-coronavirus-stimulus-bill.html\"\u003Esummary\u003C\/a\u003E.\u0026nbsp; \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/prospect.org\/coronavirus\/unsanitized-bailouts-tradition-unlike-any-other\/?fbclid=IwAR17sVsM0fV3EQ5wKX1nDBDQzb9ydKgLKcHaRpcHf3FnGj7rH-QgDIY9vvw\"\u003EEssential first take by David Dayen.\u003C\/a\u003E Trigger warning: wow will this analysis not reassure you that any economic reforms are in the offing.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EYes we have no protection: \"\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003EA very American story about \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/03\/25\/opinion\/coronavirus-face-mask.html\"\u003Ecapitalism consuming our national preparedness and resiliency\u003C\/a\u003E\"\u0026nbsp; Painful contrast between the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/business\/2020\/03\/24\/scramble-medical-equipment-descends-into-chaos-us-states-hospitals-compete-rare-supplies\/\"\u003EAmerican scramble for the most basic equipmen\u003C\/a\u003Et and \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/europe\/germany-coronavirus-death-rate\/2020\/03\/24\/76ce18e4-6d05-11ea-a156-0048b62cdb51_story.html\"\u003EGermany's highly successful\u003C\/a\u003E health system for radically minimizing fatalities.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003EHalf-assed LAT reporting on the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/california\/story\/2020-03-25\/california-20-billion-budget-reserve-may-get-wiped-out-by-coronavirus-crisis\"\u003Ecoming fiscal crisis\u003C\/a\u003E of the state of California.\u0026nbsp; No real info, and other annoying stuff. How do you find the school lobbyist who will say this will be really bad for the schools, and then add, \"under current law, it is likely that schools could  withstand a total statewide revenue loss of around $5 billion. But more  than that and schools will face significant problems.\"\u0026nbsp; So your own lobbyist just told the state that a 7 percent cut is fine.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003EWhere's higher ed in the stimulus bill? Inside Higher Ed's summary:\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\"tr_bq\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003ESix-Month Loan Deferment in Senate Bill\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003EMarch\u0026nbsp;25, Noon.\u003Cb\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/b\u003EStudent loan  borrowers would be allowed to defer making payments for six months,  without interest, through Sept.\u0026nbsp;30, according to a summary of the $2  trillion stimulus package Senate leaders agreed to at 1 a.m. Wednesday  morning. The full bill is still being written and hasn’t yet been  released. \u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\"tr_bq\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan id=\"docs-internal-guid-b6cc30db-7fff-9c68-86f8-9694edfd93b8\"\u003EBut according to summaries of the bill making the rounds among education advocacy groups and obtained by \u003Ci\u003EInside Higher Ed\u003C\/i\u003E,  the measure will also include changes sought by advocates such as\u0026nbsp;not  requiring Pell Grant students to repay money to the federal government  if their terms are disrupted by the coronavirus emergency.\u003C\/span\u003E \u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\"tr_bq\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan id=\"docs-internal-guid-b6cc30db-7fff-9c68-86f8-9694edfd93b8\"\u003EHowever, the bill is expected to disappoint\u0026nbsp;advocates \u003C\/span\u003Ewho  had embraced Democratic proposals in the House and Senate, in which the  federal government would have made the payments on behalf of borrowers,  reducing their balances by at least $10,000. The summary did not  mention any loan cancellation. \u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\"tr_bq\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan id=\"docs-internal-guid-b6cc30db-7fff-9c68-86f8-9694edfd93b8\"\u003EA  separate summary contains $30.75 billion in grants to “provide  emergency support to local school systems and higher education  institutions to continue to provide educational services to their  students and support.” That amount\u0026nbsp;appears be about $29 billion less  than what higher education institutions could potentially get in the  bill proposed by House Democrats, but $21 billion more than what Senate  Republicans had initially proposed, one higher education lobbyist said.\u0026nbsp;  Associations representing institutions that\u0026nbsp;were\u0026nbsp;disappointed with\u0026nbsp;the  previous proposals\u0026nbsp;were still waiting for the full bill before they  commented on the level of funding.\u003C\/span\u003E \u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\"tr_bq\"\u003E\u003Cdiv dir=\"ltr\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003EThe bill requires the secretary to defer student loan payments, principal, and interest for six months, through Sept. 30, 2020.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003EThursday, March 26\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003ECovid revealing \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/the-us-traditionally-leads-in-times-of-crisis-now-its-practicing-self-isolation\/2020\/03\/25\/1fa3f9b6-6d38-11ea-a156-0048b62cdb51_story.html\"\u003EAmerica's rear guard place in the world\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EZero Hedge's mashup of \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/geopolitical\/12-experts-question-covid-19-panic\"\u003Ehostility to the shutdown,\u003C\/a\u003E mixing vulnerability of SARS-CoV-2 to treatment (it isn’t a superbug) with statistical problems (extensive) with lockdown’s effect on the economy (bad but unavoidable). \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.emptywheel.net\/2020\/03\/26\/trumps-blame-the-governors-strategy-and-rural-roulette\/\"\u003EPlaying rural roulette\u003C\/a\u003E because lockdowns are Democrat.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003ESuppression works, says none other than Neil Ferguson!! \u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\"tr_bq\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EHe said that expected increases in National Health Service capacity and ongoing \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.newscientist.com\/article\/2237664-coronavirus-what-is-social-distancing-and-how-do-you-do-it\"\u003Erestrictions to people’s movements\u003C\/a\u003E make him “reasonably confident” the health service can cope when the  predicted peak of the epidemic arrives in two or three weeks. UK deaths  from the disease are now unlikely to exceed 20,000, he said, and could  be much lower.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EBut don't go back outside! Because, on the other hand,\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\"tr_bq\"\u003EThis measure of how many other people a carrier usually infects is now  believed to be just over three, he said, up from 2.5. “That adds more  evidence to support the more intensive social distancing measures,” he  said.\u003C\/blockquote\u003ESpecial bonus for modeling fans: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.dropbox.com\/s\/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c\/Draft-COVID-19-Model%20%2813%29.pdf?dl=0\"\u003EOxford now has a model too.\u003C\/a\u003E More on this coming soon.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EHope for a UK Covid-19 \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2020\/mar\/26\/covid-19-self-test-could-allow-return-to-work-says-public-health-england\"\u003Ehome test within two weeks\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAnd\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/03\/26\/health\/usa-coronavirus-cases.html\"\u003E We're Number 1 \u003C\/a\u003E- in Covid-19 cases. "},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/feeds\/8483702448020178274\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2020\/03\/coverging-crises-part-i-covid-shutdown.html#comment-form","title":"4 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/1170716682680204889\/posts\/default\/8483702448020178274"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/1170716682680204889\/posts\/default\/8483702448020178274"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2020\/03\/coverging-crises-part-i-covid-shutdown.html","title":"Coverging Crises Part I: Covid Shutdown Theory (Updated)"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Chris Newfield"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/01078395415386100872"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-18r8nGYwdME\/XnK4bSSRG1I\/AAAAAAAAEYY\/AhRHKmoLlPEvko85bu4gTQsHZ_X2MU93wCNcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/pandemic-virus-globe.jpg","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"4"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1170716682680204889.post-8202072712457485286"},"published":{"$t":"2018-10-16T10:32:00.001-07:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2018-10-16T10:32:20.949-07:00"},"category":[{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Academic Labor"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Public vs. Private"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Race"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Working in Non-Harvard Higher Ed"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/2.bp.blogspot.com\/-O7u86be80lU\/W8YcRMzykQI\/AAAAAAAADsk\/GlJ-fwsiDwMPaCmpaF3BEKqIsYEM21lDQCLcBGAs\/s1600\/eating%2Bin%2Bthe%2Bcar.jpg\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"684\" data-original-width=\"1024\" height=\"213\" src=\"https:\/\/2.bp.blogspot.com\/-O7u86be80lU\/W8YcRMzykQI\/AAAAAAAADsk\/GlJ-fwsiDwMPaCmpaF3BEKqIsYEM21lDQCLcBGAs\/s320\/eating%2Bin%2Bthe%2Bcar.jpg\" width=\"320\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EThe biggest mainstream media higher ed story last week--and this--has been the lawsuit charging Harvard with discrimination against\u0026nbsp; Asian American applicants. My piece on it has been delayed by my study of the documents, which has changed my mind from pro to con on Harvard admissions.\u0026nbsp; We may be seeing the end of the Powell Era's frustrating but functional compromise on race in college admissions, in part thanks to the Harvard practices that created it.\u0026nbsp; More on that soon.\u0026nbsp; Meanwhile, the other big higher ed story last week was confirmation of the shockingly un-Harvard conditions in the rest of higher education.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe American Association of University Professors  (AAUP) released some data snapshots last week, reporting (again) that \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.aaup.org\/sites\/default\/files\/10112018%20Data%20Snapshot%20Tenure.pdf\"\u003E73 percent of instructional positions are non-tenure track\u003C\/a\u003E (NTT). In spite of the hundred or hundreds of applicants per tenure track job, \u003Ci\u003Eacademic work\u003C\/i\u003E isn't a  great thing for most of the people doing it.\u0026nbsp; By that I mean that college teaching is mostly precarious and is a proverbial middle class job only for a minority.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EState legislatures and others regularly lament the inefficiencies of tenure, but it is mostly gone:\u0026nbsp; fewer than 20 percent of post-secondary instructors actually have  it.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp; The public image of the privileged \"college professor\" lags decades behind the common reality.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe employment structure also changes the nature of universities. Neither academic freedom nor faculty governance can have much  general impact when only a quarter to a fifth of \"the faculty\" are in a  position to exercise them.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis pie chart for the best case scenario-- Research 1 universities--is startling.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-2TFgx0cAHog\/W8Pa-cCjvCI\/AAAAAAAADr0\/JPrT2Lbvt0QL65qwYpa6-aIVjCiUHCkrACLcBGAs\/s1600\/FacultyMixR1AAUP1018.png\" style=\"clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"796\" data-original-width=\"1600\" height=\"315\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-2TFgx0cAHog\/W8Pa-cCjvCI\/AAAAAAAADr0\/JPrT2Lbvt0QL65qwYpa6-aIVjCiUHCkrACLcBGAs\/s640\/FacultyMixR1AAUP1018.png\" width=\"640\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EWhat  most people think of as professors are only 30 percent of teaching  staff. About the same share are grad students. These proportions don't  say \"only PhDs can teach university students.\" Nor do they say  \"university professors must be engaged in their own research.\" And these  numbers\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u0026nbsp;are for the most research-oriented universities.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAt  the same time, R1s offer multi-year contracts to a much higher  percentage of their NTT faculty than do non-doctoral institutions  (2\/3rds at R1s, half at R2).\u0026nbsp; (See Colleen Flaherty's \u003Ci\u003EInside Higher Ed\u003C\/i\u003E \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.insidehighered.com\/news\/2018\/10\/12\/about-three-quarters-all-faculty-positions-are-tenure-track-according-new-aaup\"\u003Eoverview\u003C\/a\u003E for this and related points).\u003Cb\u003E \u003C\/b\u003EAnd  yet even these NTT faculty teach 2-3 times more courses per year than TT  faculty and are paid less: one UC official recently praised their  \"teaching power,\" meaning the cost-benefit advantages of their high  teaching loads. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EContinued austerity means that public  university administrators no longer imagine replacing NTT with TT faculty, who have  research and governance obligations, and whose lower teaching loads give them more time to do  intensive, personalized teaching.\u0026nbsp; These are the university's three core  public goods--creating knowledge, spreading knowledge, and governing  knowledge in the general interest.\u0026nbsp; Keeping most faculty contingent diminishes all of these. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ECollege teaching  is also frequently hunger work. Postsecondary teaching conditions are  often unethical, exploitative, and cruel.\u0026nbsp; See, for one of many recent example, the excellent \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/lithub.com\/going-hungry-at-the-most-prestigious-mfa-in-america\/\"\u003E\"Going Hungry at the Most Prestigious MFA in America\"\u003C\/a\u003E (h\/t Audrey Watters).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMore public-good damage: look at the teaching conditions in community colleges.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/4.bp.blogspot.com\/-PHudl1QBBBQ\/W8PuwmUHfQI\/AAAAAAAADsM\/IvCLzKk1dUk-op7gMCfdNDUfxYgRrEyYACLcBGAs\/s1600\/FacultyMixAssociateDegreeAAUP1018.png\" style=\"clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"788\" data-original-width=\"1600\" height=\"314\" src=\"https:\/\/4.bp.blogspot.com\/-PHudl1QBBBQ\/W8PuwmUHfQI\/AAAAAAAADsM\/IvCLzKk1dUk-op7gMCfdNDUfxYgRrEyYACLcBGAs\/s640\/FacultyMixAssociateDegreeAAUP1018.png\" width=\"640\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E2\/3rds of community college instructors work part time.\u0026nbsp; It  doesn't matter how brilliant or dedicated they are: teaching  loads in CCs are 5 courses per term, and for part-timers five generally  don't add up to a living wage in any one place.\u0026nbsp; A typical CC student  will have 2 of 3 courses taught by a part-timer, and only 1 in 8 taught  by a tenured professor.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAgain, the instructors can be  superbly skilled and dedicated and yet lack the working conditions to  deliver.\u0026nbsp; CCs have the worst completion rates in the nation, which is partly tied to a mostly non-permanent teaching force that doesn't know  each student well enough to give them personalized attention.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn their  general indifference to teaching and learning quality, policymakers love  CCs, ostensibly for linking their minority-majority student bodies  directly to middle-skill jobs. But CCs aren't working well, and their temp  teaching staffs and excessive teaching lords are two major  reasons why.\u0026nbsp; (I say this in full awareness of two generations of transfers to UCSB telling me about beloved instructors at their CC: great people teach great classes there, just not at scale.)\u0026nbsp; I know of no state legislature that is worried about instructor working conditions at CCs, and the reason is that politicians really like CCs because they're cheap.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E                   \u003Cbr \/\u003EThe obvious danger is this: if the majority experience of college converges with their experience of high school, the public will pay less, not more--as will the students themselves.\u0026nbsp; Politics, ethics, and knowledge aside, quality upgrades are the only business answer. It is not to be found in these employment charts.\u003Cbr \/\u003E      \u003Cstyle\u003E\u003C!--  \/* Font Definitions *\/  @font-face  {font-family:\"Cambria Math\";  panose-1:2 4 5 3 5 4 6 3 2 4;  mso-font-charset:0;  mso-generic-font-family:roman;  mso-font-pitch:variable;  mso-font-signature:3 0 0 0 1 0;} @font-face  {font-family:DengXian;  panose-1:2 1 6 0 3 1 1 1 1 1;  mso-font-alt:等线;  mso-font-charset:134;  mso-generic-font-family:auto;  mso-font-pitch:variable;  mso-font-signature:-1610612033 953122042 22 0 262159 0;} @font-face  {font-family:Calibri;  panose-1:2 15 5 2 2 2 4 3 2 4;  mso-font-charset:0;  mso-generic-font-family:swiss;  mso-font-pitch:variable;  mso-font-signature:-536859905 -1073697537 9 0 511 0;} @font-face  {font-family:\"\\@DengXian\";  panose-1:2 1 6 0 3 1 1 1 1 1;  mso-font-charset:134;  mso-generic-font-family:auto;  mso-font-pitch:variable;  mso-font-signature:-1610612033 953122042 22 0 262159 0;}  \/* Style Definitions *\/  p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal  {mso-style-unhide:no;  mso-style-qformat:yes;  mso-style-parent:\"\";  margin:0in;  margin-bottom:.0001pt;  mso-pagination:widow-orphan;  font-size:12.0pt;  font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;  mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;  mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;  mso-fareast-font-family:DengXian;  mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;  mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;  mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;  mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;  mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} p  {mso-style-noshow:yes;  mso-style-priority:99;  mso-margin-top-alt:auto;  margin-right:0in;  mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;  margin-left:0in;  mso-pagination:widow-orphan;  font-size:12.0pt;  font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;  mso-fareast-font-family:\"Times New Roman\";} .MsoChpDefault  {mso-style-type:export-only;  mso-default-props:yes;  font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;  mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;  mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;  mso-fareast-font-family:DengXian;  mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;  mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;  mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;  mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;  mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} @page WordSection1  {size:8.5in 11.0in;  margin:1.0in 1.0in 1.0in 1.0in;  mso-header-margin:.5in;  mso-footer-margin:.5in;  mso-paper-source:0;} div.WordSection1  {page:WordSection1;} --\u003E\u003C\/style\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EWhile everyone (or at least readers of the New York \u003Ci\u003ETimes\u003C\/i\u003E and WeChat) obsess about Harvard admissions, it's worth remembering that 38 percent  of Asian American and Pacific Islander students are in community colleges (\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/nces.ed.gov\/pubs2016\/2016007.pdf\"\u003EFigure 19.6)\u003C\/a\u003E. That is almost exactly the same proportion as Black students (39 percent).\u0026nbsp; CC's house 49 percent of Latinx students, 35 percent of white  students, and 45 percent of Native American\/Alaskan Native students. Public colleges and universities teach 76 percent of all students and 81 percent of Asian Americans. The well-being of public college instructors is far more important to national life than anything that happens at Harvard.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/feeds\/8202072712457485286\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2018\/10\/working-in-non-harvard-higher-ed.html#comment-form","title":"2 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/1170716682680204889\/posts\/default\/8202072712457485286"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/1170716682680204889\/posts\/default\/8202072712457485286"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2018\/10\/working-in-non-harvard-higher-ed.html","title":"Working in Non-Harvard Higher Ed"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Chris Newfield"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/01078395415386100872"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/2.bp.blogspot.com\/-O7u86be80lU\/W8YcRMzykQI\/AAAAAAAADsk\/GlJ-fwsiDwMPaCmpaF3BEKqIsYEM21lDQCLcBGAs\/s72-c\/eating%2Bin%2Bthe%2Bcar.jpg","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"2"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1170716682680204889.post-4805165879776268637"},"published":{"$t":"2018-09-13T11:30:00.004-07:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2019-09-07T00:29:47.485-07:00"},"category":[{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Funding Model"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Humanities"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Public Funding"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"public goods"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Public vs. Private"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Rewriting the Humanities Story: A Piece of Missing Theory"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-_IzRrs8lt20\/W5qjhtfqy1I\/AAAAAAAADqM\/FEw74hzQJHc6Xg8gahbtHNNoqBfTtBmfwCLcBGAs\/s1600\/Wakanda.jpg\" style=\"clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-_IzRrs8lt20\/W5qjhtfqy1I\/AAAAAAAADqM\/FEw74hzQJHc6Xg8gahbtHNNoqBfTtBmfwCLcBGAs\/s320\/Wakanda.jpg\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EI don't see how we're going to survive the 21st century without much better human relations.  I do see ideas about better human relations as depending on humanities expertise.  Silicon Valley and Wall Street don't agree with me, and put their faith in programming.  Yuvai Harari, the historian of all human history, doesn't agree either.  He was \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.kqed.org\/forum\/2010101867209\/yuval-hararis-21-lessons-for-the-21st-century\"\u003Eon KQED's Forum\u003C\/a\u003E talking about his new book, \u003Ci\u003E21 Lessons for the 21st Century\u003C\/i\u003E.  There was really only one lesson in his radio answers: the rise of artificial intelligence (AI).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIt was odd because Harari has a real historian's sense of specificity, which helped him reject callers' claims for trends that will be uniform across the planet.  For example, he said that guaranteed minimum income might address jobs lost to robots in Germany and Japan but not in Bangladesh and Honduras.  I waited for a reference to building global planning agencies through upgraded capacities to do trans-cultural cooperation. It didn't come. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAgain and again, Harari placed whatever hope he had in \"hacking the human.\"  Code had to overwrite human factors.  Algorithmic progress was inevitable and AI was here to accelerate it.  He knew that only a minority of the world population would benefit, but he said nothing about how to solve the political and cultural problems so tech could help overcome inequality rather than making it worse. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EI was listening to him while reading Facebook posts about the new MLA Job List.  One friend counted a total of 16 tenure-track jobs in African American literature-- for a country with \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/nces.ed.gov\/programs\/digest\/d17\/tables\/dt17_105.50.asp?current=yes\"\u003E7000 colleges\u003C\/a\u003E. The survival of much if not all of the humanities is at risk.  But in Harari's model, that wouldn't slow down progress. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis KQED Harari is wrong-- the world absolutely needs what humanities scholars know--about languages, the history of cultural conflicts, the communal effects of every kind of identity in their startling fluidity, the psycho-cultural impacts of economic inequality, for starters. So what can we do, besides what we've been doing, which is \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2018\/08\/humanities-graduate-education-after.html\"\u003Eaccepting austerity\u003C\/a\u003E? \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EHere are two things.   \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe first is confronting the Great Mistake from within humanities-based theory.  That mistake was to retreat from defining academic knowledge as a public good and restructuring it for market forces.   Economists generally define public goods too narrowly, as non-excludable and non-rivalrous.  We got confused about higher ed because we exclude people from higher education all the time and make them rivals to get the really good versions of it, so maybe it was an individual private good, which is what colleges say to prospective students when they recruit them.  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/2.bp.blogspot.com\/-mKrEPzvvn7c\/W5qouqIY5ZI\/AAAAAAAADqY\/WkH7w8ThTtMRQ16cXo4ApkekiVVWjZemwCLcBGAs\/s1600\/HigherEdStillWorthItOSUMayhew.png\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/2.bp.blogspot.com\/-mKrEPzvvn7c\/W5qouqIY5ZI\/AAAAAAAADqY\/WkH7w8ThTtMRQ16cXo4ApkekiVVWjZemwCLcBGAs\/s400\/HigherEdStillWorthItOSUMayhew.png\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EIn reality, about half of the total value of college is nonmarket, indirect, and\/or social-- according to the one guy who \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/gp\/product\/1421424037\/ref=dbs_a_def_rwt_bibl_vppi_i0\"\u003Eheroically tried to add it up\u003C\/a\u003E.   This is what the idea of public goods expresses.  All sorts of educational effects are what economists call \"nonpecuniary.\" They have a value that is greater than what individuals receive as a private return, and often don't have any equivalent monetary quantity.  (See Stage 1 of \u003Ci\u003ETGM\u003C\/i\u003E for more on this -- now in paper!)   \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThese effects are well known, and everybody from students to business executives call for basic ones like critical thinking, problem solving, oral communication skills, or a capacity for lifetime learning.  And yet by measuring their value as a pecuniary return like an increased salary, we systematically neglect the nonpecuniary effects. We underinvest in them, or in other words subject them to market failure, with some fairly obvious social results. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMany other nonpecuniary effects are equally important.  In lit crit we roll our eyes when a radio show host talks about how reading novels teaches empathy.  Yet it is broadly true.  It is also true that empathy is a public good that can change the world.  It's hard to imagine international political progress without a very big increase in cross-religious empathy, and on a global scale.  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe troubles of the humanities flow inevitably from the decline cycle that this retreat from public goods set up.  That retreat induces not only the bad accounting I just mentioned but also a shift to the relentless pursuit of non-state funds, nearly all of which is returns-tested, meaning it's not allowed just to benefit people and society generally.  The veneration of revenues with calculable returns discourages universities from having enough internal, institutional funds to support their noncommercial research (\u003Ci\u003ETGM\u003C\/i\u003E Stage 2).  That includes all the research that cannot be justified with claims to future revenues through the sale of a license or product or service.   \"Small science\" doesn't get properly funded. And \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.chronicle.com\/article\/Colleges-That-Spent-the-Most\/244170\"\u003Ethe humanities fields are barely funded at all\u003C\/a\u003E.  All sorts of research outputs simply never exist.  The same is true for the nonpecuniary \/ social benefits they might have produced.  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe decline cycle also routinizes \"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Academically-Adrift-Limited-Learning-Campuses-dp-0226028569\/dp\/0226028569\/ref=mt_paperback?_encoding=UTF8\u0026amp;me=\u0026amp;qid=1536838860\"\u003Elimited learning\u003C\/a\u003E.\"   It's really hard to grasp something like the big picture of a culture's history by grasping the main lines of hundreds of years of literary output. It also takes a long time.  Maybe it takes 10,000 hours, but we teach literary history and everything else in 40 hour chunks, giving in a 10-week term as much direct intellectual contact as some college sports require over 10 days.  Private return-on-investment calculations will always underfund real learning, leading us to replace mastery as a B.A goal with something like mechanical competence in written communication for most students (\u003Ci\u003ETGM\u003C\/i\u003E Stage 6).  MOOCs and other short-cuts fill the gap.  Since we haven't detailed the nonpecuniary benefits, politicians want professors to teach twice as many students for today's workplace tasks.  But deep learning probably means teaching half as much, more intensely, with more than twice as many professors.  The point here is not a particular number, but that the private-good model keeps us from even admitting the losses to both individuals and society of limited learning, to say nothing of doing something about it. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe second issue is why Theory (\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2018\/08\/humanities-graduate-education-after.html\"\u003Eour HT from last time\u003C\/a\u003E) hasn't done much with institutional and economic value.  I remember, around 25 years ago, when the Village \u003Ci\u003EVoice\u003C\/i\u003E was really a thing, that the critic \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.co.uk\/Scott-L.-Malcomson\/e\/B001HCXJD0\"\u003EScott Malcomson\u003C\/a\u003E asked why Derridean theorists weren't also critiquing the premises of finance capital.  We never did answer that question, or just actually do it.  Now the answer seems to me to be a lack of intellectual confidence. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe Ronell case has produced some examples.  In a fairly nasty piece, the eminent modernist Marjorie Perloff spent much of her commentary saying how worthless Ronell's kind of theory is.  She didn't say Ronell argued A and B on topic C when a good HT person would have argued X and Y on topic Z.  She made the whole field seem empty.   \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ETo make matters worse, \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/null\"\u003Eshe concluded\u003C\/a\u003E, \"the focus . . . should shift, as it has at many institutions, to undergraduate education, for it is the undergraduates who will determine the future course of a discipline like Comp Lit.\"  It's completely true that the drop in major numbers does need to be reversed with better undergrad curriculae.  But Perloff's message is that lit crit doesn't produce the kind of worldly knowledge that requires doctoral training and tenure-track jobs.  Backing away from humanities doctoral education will make the whole situation worse.   \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EEqually senior Germanist Bernd did the same thing in a belated score-settler with Ronell (see the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.salon.com\/2018\/09\/08\/a-witch-hunt-or-a-quest-for-justice-an-insiders-perspective-on-disgraced-academic-avital-ronell\/\"\u003E\u003Ci\u003ESalon\u003C\/i\u003E translation\u003C\/a\u003E of the original German): he produced such a wall-to-wall trashing of Ronell's legacy as authoritarian in thought and deed that he trashed the entire field.  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EI thought this might just the the message from people who had already hated HT in the 1980s. But then there's this passage from NYU grad student \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.chronicle.com\/article\/I-Worked-With-Avital-Ronell-I\/244415\"\u003EAndrea Chu's powerful piece\u003C\/a\u003E, which got relayed enough times for me to ponder it carefully.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\"tr_bq\"\u003EStructural problems are problems because real people hurt real people. You cannot have a cycle of abuse without actually existing abusers. That sounds simple, which is why so many academics hate it. When scholars defend Avital — or “complicate the narrative,” as we like to say — in part this is because we cannot stand believing what most people believe. The need to feel smarter is deep. Intelligence is a hungry god.\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn this way, Avital’s case has become a strange referendum on literary study. Generations of scholars have been suckled at the teat of interpretation: We spend our days parsing commas and decoding metaphors. We get high on finding meaning others can’t. We hoard it, like dragons. We would be intellectually humiliated to learn that the truth was plain: that Avital quite simply sexually harassed her student, just as described. Sometimes analysis is simply denial with more words. Sometimes, as a frustrated student in a first-year literature course always mutters, the text just means what it says it means.\u003C\/blockquote\u003EI'm horrified that any graduate student would have this experience of PhD-level literary study, in which it is nothing more than belabored overcomplexity yielding errors to be used in power shows. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EWe have to fix the second problem before we can address the first. We can't just say that Chu's description isn't typical.  Folks in HT, lit crit, cultural studies, will need to be relentless and systematic in saying what our research programs are.  We need to explain why we pursue them the way we do.   \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAbove all, we now have to spell out the humanities' nonpecuniary benefits.  Theorize this."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/feeds\/4805165879776268637\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2018\/09\/rewriting-humanities-story-piece-of.html#comment-form","title":"8 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/1170716682680204889\/posts\/default\/4805165879776268637"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/1170716682680204889\/posts\/default\/4805165879776268637"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2018\/09\/rewriting-humanities-story-piece-of.html","title":"Rewriting the Humanities Story: A Piece of Missing Theory"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Chris Newfield"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/01078395415386100872"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-_IzRrs8lt20\/W5qjhtfqy1I\/AAAAAAAADqM\/FEw74hzQJHc6Xg8gahbtHNNoqBfTtBmfwCLcBGAs\/s72-c\/Wakanda.jpg","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"8"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1170716682680204889.post-2103841142452498240"},"published":{"$t":"2018-05-21T15:07:00.000-07:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2018-05-22T06:47:34.156-07:00"},"category":[{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Funding Model"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Janet Napolitano"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Philanthropy"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Privatization"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Public vs. Private"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Open Letter to UC President Janet Napolitano on Fundraising"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/-jRciavmIJ4Y\/WwH7oEjGwTI\/AAAAAAAADlY\/6g5M_UdJRWMVAHVmqjsIW-mnGVPe-l7HwCLcBGAs\/s1600\/ucop%2Bbuilding%2Blooking%2Bup.jpg\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"306\" data-original-width=\"674\" height=\"145\" src=\"https:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/-jRciavmIJ4Y\/WwH7oEjGwTI\/AAAAAAAADlY\/6g5M_UdJRWMVAHVmqjsIW-mnGVPe-l7HwCLcBGAs\/s320\/ucop%2Bbuilding%2Blooking%2Bup.jpg\" width=\"320\" \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EDear President Napolitano,\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EYou have now been the president of the University of California for nearly five years. You are one of a handful of people who speak for the entirety of the university system. You are the head of a slightly larger group (two or three dozen?) that decides UC policy. \u0026nbsp;You also have direct access to the mass media to explain the needs and benefits of UC.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EYou represent a university that consists of hundreds of thousands of students as well as about 150,000 staff and over 10,000 faculty. Many of us have given decades of our working lives to UC. We have deep experience of the institution and highly developed expertise in our subject areas. \u0026nbsp;And yet with few exceptions, we have no way of bringing this expertise to the wider public. \u0026nbsp;As a group, our views are as unknown to the state at the end of our thirty-to-forty-year careers as they were at the beginning. \u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EThis places an enormous moral responsibility on you to represent hundreds of thousands of silent people correctly. It imposes an enormous intellectual responsibility as well.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EAs the representative of the university, your intellectual responsibility is of course to tell the truth: universities that replace truth with politics and marketing steadily lose public trust, as they should. By \"truth,\" I don't mean a fixed obvious fact we can kick. I mean the current state-of-the-art on a topic, created by open methods, testing, and debate, and subject to further revision as better data and interpretations arise. \u0026nbsp;The job of universities is to determine the truth defined as an issue's state-of-the-art understanding, which in all areas continues to evolve. \u0026nbsp;This means that university administrations are in the position of having to keep up with the state-of-the-art in relevant fields as generated by their students, staff, and faculty.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EOne field that administrations must keep up with is higher education studies. \u0026nbsp;As a scholar in some of its most pressing subfields, I sometimes feel that senior administrators are running away from research findings rather than embracing and acting on them.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EA case in point is university philanthropy. \u0026nbsp;Last week you met with CSU Chancellor Timothy White\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.dailycal.org\/2018\/05\/18\/uc-president-janet-napolitano-csu-chancellor-timothy-white-discuss-future-public-higher-education\/\"\u003E\"to discuss the future of public higher education.\"\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp; The\u003Ci\u003E Daily Cal\u003C\/i\u003E coverage ended with this:\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\"tr_bq\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003ENapolitano also discussed the role of philanthropic financial contributions in the UC’s financial model.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\"tr_bq\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E“We have very generous donors, and if we look at the trajectory of  philanthropy in the UC, we see a pretty steep upward curve over the last  10 years or so,” Napolitano said at the conference. “The point of fact  is that public funding at the level it was at is unlikely to be  restored, and we’re going to need to continue that upward trajectory in  terms of philanthropy to support the UC.”\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EThis tells the audience that private donors have been and will continue to compensate for the decline in public funding. It accepts that the public funding will stay inadequate, which demobilizes the 62 percent of California adults who\u0026nbsp;\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\"\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: #222222; letter-spacing: 0.3499999940395355px;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.ppic.org\/press-release\/concerned-college-affordability-satisfied-quality\/\"\u003Esay the level of state funding for the public higher education system is not high enough.\"\u003C\/a\u003E \u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp;It states that fundraising, which has been a central UC fixation for at least 25 years, can grow indefinitely, and increase its share of UC's budget. \u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EThese venerable beliefs are not correct. \u0026nbsp;But they have remained in place over many years because we have never had an open, research-driven, fact-based debate about philanthropy in which the need to increase fundraising was not assumed in advance, and in which administrators review and then follow data-based research findings.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EFor example, UC's\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.ucop.edu\/institutional-advancement\/_files\/annual-reports\/2017.pdf\"\u003Emost recent report on private support\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp;finds that\u0026nbsp;annual giving has doubled over the past twenty years (1). That is a good thing: philanthropy funds many important specific projects that would otherwise languish. \u0026nbsp;But research has shown something you no doubt also know: philanthropy growth is not relevant to the public funding shortfall.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EThe basic problem is scale. \u0026nbsp;In 2006, my Senate colleagues and I showed this in a\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/senate.universityofcalifornia.edu\/_files\/reports\/futures.report.0706.pdf\" style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003Ereport\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp;that was\u0026nbsp;\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003Etransmitted to President Dynes in 2006 and presented to the Board of Regents in 2007; those slides are\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2017\/05\/a-faculty-overview-of-uc-budget-tenth.html\"\u003Ehere\u003C\/a\u003E). \u0026nbsp;We noted that the University, which was already down $1.35 billion in general fund allocation from 2001, would need a $30 billion gift to replace this revenue stream. \u0026nbsp;Our internal joke was that fundraising \u003C\/span\u003E\u003Ci style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003Ecould\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E fix UC's general fund problem-- if UC nationalized Harvard's endowment. \u0026nbsp;We are right to be proud that UC's generous donors now give $2 billion or so to UC every year. \u0026nbsp;That generates $100 million a year at 5 percent interest, which is about 3 percent of UC's current general fund revenues.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003EAnother UC report this year, which\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp;the Board of Regents read at their recent retreat, confirmed this conclusion.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\"tr_bq\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EPhilanthropy to the UC system and its campuses has risen by 50 percent since 2000, and now totals more than $2 billion\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003Eper year. Virtually all of these funds are restricted and are not available to support general operating costs.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EEven if philanthropy to UC were to double in the next 10 years, the increase would nominally offset only a quarter of the\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003Edecline in state funding per student since 2000, and the additional (private-interested) activities required by the\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003Ephilanthropic funding would lead to an even smaller offset for educational (and public-interested research) activities.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EFundraising may help with capital costs, but it is much less likely to be a significant income source for ongoing\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003Eeducational costs. (39)\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EThis new report supports fundraising but not as a replacement for public funding.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EI'll belabor a few other issues that reduce philanthropy's \u003Ci\u003Enet\u003C\/i\u003E returns to the University. \u0026nbsp;Fund-raising cost indices suggest that the overhead for raising a dollar is about 20 cents, so initial net is perhaps 80 percent of the gross figures we publish. \u0026nbsp;Many gifts leverage matching funds from the University, so the true net after costs is quite a bit less than that, or even negative (UCLA's Luskin Center received a generous donation of $40 million for a project with\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/regents.universityofcalifornia.edu\/regmeet\/mar12\/gb1.pdf\"\u003E overall costs of $162 million\u003C\/a\u003E). \u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EThere are other subtractions: the doubling of UC fundraising needs to cover nearly 30 percent more students with inflation lowering the take another 20 percent over that ten year period. \u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003EThere are institutional burdens: the donor model has spawned hundreds of school, program, and department-level fundraising programs across the UC system, whose costs in time, money, and loss of resources for the educational core have not been calculated. \u0026nbsp;More indirectly, talking up private funding may encourage the state\u0026nbsp;\u003Ci\u003Enot\u003C\/i\u003E\u0026nbsp;to rebuild\u0026nbsp;public\u0026nbsp;funding to 21st century requirements. \u0026nbsp;(This is a feedback loop that, given years of inadequate annual general fund increases, UC officials should consider seriously.)\u0026nbsp;\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp;And this is not an exhaustive list of issues.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EAs a true believer in universities, I am always sorry to find so much fault with our belief in a cherished source of revenue. But we can thank our generous donors, encourage new ones, \u003Ci\u003Eand\u003C\/i\u003E tell them the truth that we need to fight like mad to rebuild the public funding base that makes their giving valuable.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EI'll wrap up with a question: why are public universities competing with privates on our weakest (and their strongest) ground? \u0026nbsp;The source of UC Berkeley or UC Irvine's comparative advantage has been strong public funding. \u0026nbsp;The source of Stanford's and Cal Tech's has been great private wealth. Why don't we try to advance on our own terms?\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EYou no doubt carefully reviewed the New York \u003Ci\u003ETimes's\u003C\/i\u003E major college access study a year ago. \u0026nbsp;Called\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2017\/05\/25\/sunday-review\/opinion-pell-table.html\" style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E \"Top Colleges Doing the Most for the American Dream,\"\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp;its authors devised a College Access Index that ranked colleges and universities \"based on a combination of the number of  lower-and middle-income students that a college enrolls and the price it  charges these students.\" \u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EHere are the top 10 places,\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003Ewhere\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp;UC put in an astonishingly good\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp;performance.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-6xcN5G3yrkI\/WwNAszZ3ojI\/AAAAAAAADlw\/3rC_6LSb02YmXQ-5LL9vRTShWHXk2X2HwCLcBGAs\/s1600\/Access%2BEndowment%2BPer%2BStudent%2BNYT%2B0517.png\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"458\" data-original-width=\"1287\" height=\"199\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-6xcN5G3yrkI\/WwNAszZ3ojI\/AAAAAAAADlw\/3rC_6LSb02YmXQ-5LL9vRTShWHXk2X2HwCLcBGAs\/s640\/Access%2BEndowment%2BPer%2BStudent%2BNYT%2B0517.png\" width=\"613\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit; text-align: center;\"\u003EThese figures make intuitive sense-- except perhaps for those in the final column, endowment per student. They show that UC campuses are simply not in the big endowment game. UCLA, the wealthiest UC, has a per-student endowment that is 1\/50th of Princeton's. Access\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"text-align: center;\"\u003Echampion\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp;UC Irvine's endowment is 1\/116th that of neighboring Pomona College. And so on. These are the results of 25 years of consistent UC fundraising focus. \u0026nbsp;They are also normal: public universities top out at $250,000 and $220,000 per student (University of Virginia and the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor) and the list plunges rapidly into the 5 digits (UT-Austin's oil money gets it to $72,500).\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003EWe should have a broad university discussion of the evidence and conclusions to draw from it. In the meantime, these are my inferences from the research. \u0026nbsp;First, mass access to high quality public universities is distantly related\u003Ci\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/i\u003Eto a large endowment. \u0026nbsp;Second, this mass quality is\u003Ci\u003E closely\u003C\/i\u003E\u0026nbsp;related to non-private sources of income, meaning state funding: rebuilding that must be job 1 for public university presidents. Third,\u0026nbsp;we should pitch mass quality to potential donors as the general public good that leverages and transcends the special good their gifts do for particular people and programs. Fourth, we should \u003Ci\u003Ebrag\u003C\/i\u003E about our small per-student endowments. They show we are working on a grand scale, producing value for the entire public that lies behind us.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EEven without a full-scale investigation of UC philanthropy, you could reasonably revise future statements on this subject to read as follows:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\"tr_bq\"\u003E“We have very generous donors, and if we look at the trajectory of philanthropy in the UC, we see a pretty steep upward curve over the last 10 years or so. The point of fact is that public funding must be rebuilt to support the full benefits of these gifts. \u0026nbsp;We’re going to need to continue that upward trajectory in terms of philanthropy. \u0026nbsp;But it cannot support the UC on its own. We must work at a massive scale to get the state the million additional degrees its needs. \u0026nbsp;We need the whole population to help us with that.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EThe cost to the median taxpayer would be \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net\/reclaimcahighered\/pages\/1666\/attachments\/original\/1520971257\/66-dollar-fix_fact_sheet.pdf?1520971257\"\u003Elow\u003C\/a\u003E--but this is enough for now.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003ELoyally yours,\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EChris Newfield"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/feeds\/2103841142452498240\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2018\/05\/open-letter-to-uc-president-janet.html#comment-form","title":"1 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/1170716682680204889\/posts\/default\/2103841142452498240"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/1170716682680204889\/posts\/default\/2103841142452498240"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2018\/05\/open-letter-to-uc-president-janet.html","title":"Open Letter to UC President Janet Napolitano on Fundraising"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Chris Newfield"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/01078395415386100872"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/-jRciavmIJ4Y\/WwH7oEjGwTI\/AAAAAAAADlY\/6g5M_UdJRWMVAHVmqjsIW-mnGVPe-l7HwCLcBGAs\/s72-c\/ucop%2Bbuilding%2Blooking%2Bup.jpg","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"1"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1170716682680204889.post-7674097344043424969"},"published":{"$t":"2017-03-27T03:22:00.002-07:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2017-05-05T08:01:52.011-07:00"},"category":[{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Funding Model"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Privatization"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Public Funding"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"public goods"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Public vs. Private"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Research"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"review of The Great Mistake"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Transparency"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"The Great Mistake on Research Costs"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/4.bp.blogspot.com\/-3aRbb6XZOdU\/WNjbtQfgrVI\/AAAAAAAADRo\/QTFGrBCoA8Q_iQ-G1bM6TBpaCSsxl-whACLcB\/s1600\/RomanTragediesMarkAnthonyIvoVanHove.jpg\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" height=\"213\" src=\"https:\/\/4.bp.blogspot.com\/-3aRbb6XZOdU\/WNjbtQfgrVI\/AAAAAAAADRo\/QTFGrBCoA8Q_iQ-G1bM6TBpaCSsxl-whACLcB\/s320\/RomanTragediesMarkAnthonyIvoVanHove.jpg\" width=\"320\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Ci\u003EI'm going to use a lull in my travel for\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/i\u003EThe Great Mistake\u003Ci\u003E\u0026nbsp;to start clearing my post backlog, starting with a response to the most recent review, by the sociologist Andrew Perrin. \u0026nbsp;His \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/scatter.wordpress.com\/2017\/03\/16\/newfield-the-great-mistake\/\"\u003Epiece is at the public sociology blog Scatterplot\u003C\/a\u003E, and, among its other virtues, it offers the most sustained engagement on research costs (Stage 2 of the book's decline cycle) that I've received. \u0026nbsp;I posted a comment on his post and crosspost it here. \u0026nbsp;His skeptical analysis of the emphasis I place on research costs is essential reading. It advances the kind of debate whose general absence has helped dumb down university policy. \u0026nbsp;I'm very grateful to him for the intelligence and energy that went into his analysis.\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Ci\u003EThis blog has covered research costs many times (\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.de\/2014\/08\/how-can-public-research-universities.html\"\u003E\"How Can Public Universities Pay for Research?\"\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.de\/2013\/05\/ucla-loses-loni-why-budget-silence-is.html\"\u003E\"UCLA Loses LONI: Why Budget Silence is Bad for Science,\"\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.de\/2011\/05\/ucsd-and-crisis-in-public-university.html\"\u003E\"UCSD and the Crisis in Public University Research Funding,\u003C\/a\u003E\" etc.) In The Great Mistake\u0026nbsp;I go into the problem in detail, and also, in the final chapter, suggest a way of solving the core research cost problem without needing new money. \u0026nbsp;\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Ci\u003EAfter one talk this winter, someone asked me, \"are you arguing that the way we fund research is the public research university's Achilles' heel\"? \u0026nbsp;\"I wish,\" I replied. \u0026nbsp;\"That was just one small though important body part that didn't get protected in the River Styx, so you could armor it and be ok. \u0026nbsp;Our research funding model is more like a tragic flaw. \u0026nbsp;It is a secret weakness that cannot be separated from a great strength--unless it stops being a secret and is brought to light.\" \u0026nbsp;As I was later watching Toneelgroep Amsterdam's great 6 hour sequence of three Shakespeare plays, \u003C\/i\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/tga.nl\/en\/productions\/romeinse-tragedies\"\u003ERoman Tragedies,\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E I wondered, is the public university like Coriolanus, returned a military hero but unwilling to work with the newly empowered plebeians in the Senate, and so destroyed? Or like Marcus Junius Brutus the Younger, picking the wrong political allies, with the same result? Or Mark Anthony, losing the civil war to Octavian by ignoring his own strategists, who assured him he could not win at sea but must fight on land? Overkill, perhaps. \u0026nbsp;Start by reading \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/scatter.wordpress.com\/2017\/03\/16\/newfield-the-great-mistake\/\"\u003EAndrew Perrin.\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E***\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMy response:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMany thanks for the thought and intelligence that went into this review.\u003Cspan style=\"mso-spacerun: yes;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/span\u003EI agree with the criticism of UC-centrism.\u003Cspan style=\"mso-spacerun: yes;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/span\u003EI’d like to assemble a research group to do comparative state studies of university policies, or at least work with other people on this.\u003Cspan style=\"mso-spacerun: yes;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/span\u003EWe’re getting a better picture through a series of books that focus on the systems the authors know from the inside.\u003Cspan style=\"mso-spacerun: yes;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/span\u003E\u003Ci\u003EAusterity Blues\u003C\/i\u003E looks at New York, to take just one other example. Jeff Williams and I would love to publish more work on various state systems in our Critical University Studies series. As you say, North Carolina is a crucial case. \u003Cbr \/\u003EOn research funding, let me first take a step back.\u003Cspan style=\"mso-spacerun: yes;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/span\u003EThe book argues that treating universities as private goods has lowered their social value and hurt their finances. Many defenders of any given instance of privatization either deny social or educational costs or say they are less than the life-saving benefits of the new revenue streams. My examples question these life-saving revenue benefits, which in many cases are actually negative.\u003Cspan style=\"mso-spacerun: yes;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/span\u003EUniversities always generate value even when they lose money on something like extramural research or small-scale teaching.\u003Cspan style=\"mso-spacerun: yes;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/span\u003EBut policymakers shouldn’t support a practice—privatization—that doesn’t correctly do the one thing it is supposed to be good at, which is provide net financial benefits (gains that aren’t created by losses elsewhere in the institution). \u003Cbr \/\u003EResearch costs come where they do in the book’s decline cycle because they are a core example of the university’s primary reaction to abandoning the public-good model of the university (Stage 1), which is to \u003Ci\u003Estop\u003C\/i\u003Esaying public benefits justify monetary losses on research, and to \u003Ci\u003Estart\u003C\/i\u003Esaying the university generates monetary benefits on research (the Bayh-Dole Act in 1980 was one turning point).\u003Cspan style=\"mso-spacerun: yes;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/span\u003EThe latter statement has the double liability of obscuring research as a public good and of being wrong. Research is a public good and a private (institutional) loss, as it can be in the public good model, and as we disallow in the (inappropriate) private good model.\u003Cspan style=\"mso-spacerun: yes;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/span\u003E(A lot of bad things are tied in to this error, like splitting STEM and SASH research on phoney market grounds, hinging some portion of federal funding on science’s (exaggerated) direct economic value, etc.) \u003Cbr \/\u003EOther broad points. Technically, the contrast I draw is between high-research and high-teaching fields, where fields with lots of extramural funding have high gross revenues but lose money when overhead costs are netted out, and fields with essentially no extramural research but lots of enrollments are able to run surpluses—surpluses that administrators must use to cover losses elsewhere.\u003Cspan style=\"mso-spacerun: yes;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/span\u003EThe fact that these kinds of departments polarize into STEM and non-STEM is contingent on other historical problems that I’m trying to help address. \u003Cbr \/\u003EAlso, I am pro-STEM and hate the STEM\/SASH divide.\u003Cspan style=\"mso-spacerun: yes;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/span\u003EI spent not the happiest years of my professional life as a co-founder of an NSF center trying to overcome it.\u003Cspan style=\"mso-spacerun: yes;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/span\u003EI see the divide as an artifact of a two-cultures ideology that has produced fundamentally different—even mutually incomprehensible-- material conditions of research.\u003Cspan style=\"mso-spacerun: yes;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/span\u003EThe grant scramble in STEM feels to me to be inhumane and even anti-intellectual. I think it’s getting worse all the time, and I have nothing but sympathy and admiration for the colleagues who work 80 hours every week while skipping weekends for months at a time to keep their labs running and students funded.\u003Cspan style=\"mso-spacerun: yes;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/span\u003EI take their plight as seriously as I take that of SASH scholars. And yet I also see political inequality between STEM and SASH that is supported by budgetary opacity.\u003Cspan style=\"mso-spacerun: yes;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/span\u003EDesignated makers always beat takers in America, and my hope is that showing the makers are also takers (we all are both) will create a more open and less biased policy arena and fairer, more effective outcomes.\u003Cspan style=\"mso-spacerun: yes;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/span\u003EA side benefit, which I don’t do much with in the book, would be redress for the structural poverty of qualitative and interpretative research, for which I don’t see any ethical or intellectual justification. \u003Cbr \/\u003ESince I advocate a wholesale public good model for universities, I am pro-subsidy. \u003Cspan style=\"mso-spacerun: yes;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003EI am also pro cross-subsidy.\u003Cspan style=\"mso-spacerun: yes;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/span\u003EI don’t mind some Sociology enrollment income winding up in Electrical Engineering to pay for accounting staff.\u003Cspan style=\"mso-spacerun: yes;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/span\u003EIn terms of what you call external funds, my view, which goes beyond that of Walter McMahon and other economists I cite, is that the general public should pay \u003Ci\u003Eall\u003C\/i\u003E the costs of public universities, in the full knowledge that some returns will go only to the student they subsidized in the form of private market benefits (a salary increment), while most returns are nonmarket, indirect, and social, and fan out incalculably into the society, as we want them to.\u003Cspan style=\"mso-spacerun: yes;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/span\u003EIn “internal” terms, we all need to help each other out.\u003Cspan style=\"mso-spacerun: yes;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/span\u003EIf running one chemistry hood costs as much as running the lights and computers in 35 sociology offices, then sociology coughs up for chemistry.\u003Cspan style=\"mso-spacerun: yes;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/span\u003EThe reverse should also be true. \u003Cbr \/\u003EThe paragraph you call grudging (pp 94-95) reads as follows: \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"margin-left: .5in;\"\u003EThe problem with this situation is not that these subsidies, which are called cross-subsidies, are inherently wrong. To the contrary, these subsidies are commonplace and justified by the public benefits of research results. They are also justified by the private benefit to the student of attending research-intensive universities. At these institutions, students work with faculty who are at the forefront of their part of the knowledge world. They have access to the research process, which helps them to develop creative capabilities sooner rather than later. One can argue that the public and the student receive more benefit from an education in which instructional funding subsidizes research in the same environment. Though the costs can and should be separated so we can see who is paying for what and how much, the cross-subsidy is completely legitimate in principle—as long as it is acknowledged and shared in an equitable way.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe last sentence is the issue for me: not that we \u003Ci\u003Ehave\u003C\/i\u003Ecross-subsidies, but that we \u003Ci\u003Ehide\u003C\/i\u003E them. This removes them from the realm of policy and shared governance, and even correct accounting. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"mso-spacerun: yes;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003EHere are my more specific responses: \u003Cbr \/\u003EYou write,  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"margin-left: .5in;\"\u003EAfter a few silly anecdotes about scientists prevented from buying printer paper on their grants (do English professors not need printer paper?), Newfield then relies on \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/ncsesdata.nsf.gov\/herd\/2014\/html\/HERD2014_DST_02.html\"\u003ENSF\u003C\/a\u003Eand university budget data to claim that between 9% and 20% of universities’ outlays for research are uncompensated by federal funders, so must be made up by institutional funds. These funds, he claims, often amount to nearly 100% of institutional research expenditures, which leaves 0% for institutional support of SASH and other research that doesn’t attract extramural funding.\u003C\/div\u003EI agree the anecdotes are silly. The point is that research accounting rules set up Catch-22s: some are silly, and others which blow holes in universities budgets. I also break down the range of 9-20% into three models all of which are justified by different sections of research funding reports based on the same data.\u003Cspan style=\"mso-spacerun: yes;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/span\u003EThe differences reflect not only the ambiguity of semi-official interpretations of federal data, but also unequal budgetary situations for different kinds of universities. We need much more—and much more open—research to have a more complete picture of what is going on.  \u003Cbr \/\u003ENext:  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"margin-left: .5in;\"\u003EThere’s a lot of forensic accounting going on here, and I think Newfield makes untenable assumptions to reach those high numbers (20% unfunded, 100% of institutional outlays). Most important here is the accounting for what universities pay for research that is not extramurally funded. Lots of that is implicit; professors spend their time, paid by university funds, on research and scholarly inquiry all the time. They do it with computers, office supplies, and sometimes dedicated funds that don’t count as research expenditures but are university resources spent on research and scholarly activity.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EI’m not sure what you mean by untenable assumptions, but I assume you mean the omission of a portion of tenure-track faculty salaries and benefits as university’s internal funding of research.\u003Cspan style=\"mso-spacerun: yes;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/span\u003EI mention this omission in a footnote (middle of p 363, and also see the following note), and my reason is that this applies to all research professors in all disciplines, and is part of what one must do for one’s basic salary. Put differently, it would increase both the total amount of institutional funds spent on research and the total amount of research expenditure, so it wouldn’t change the share. \u003Cspan style=\"mso-spacerun: yes;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003EIf anything, counting part of salary and benefits would have helped my inequality case, since disciplines that expect extramural grants for tenure, promotion, etc. generally require about half as much teaching as those that don’t. \u003Cspan style=\"mso-spacerun: yes;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003EIn any case, I could better acknowledge that research universities do invest in all faculty in this way, especially since I am personally very grateful for that. \u003Cbr \/\u003ENext you write, “Throughout the section on extramural funding, Newfield implies that universities would not be doing the research if it weren’t for that funding.”\u003Cspan style=\"mso-spacerun: yes;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/span\u003EI’m agnostic on this. Your counterfactuals are interesting, but I don’t think they affect my argument.\u003Cspan style=\"mso-spacerun: yes;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/span\u003EIt’s true that universities paying 20% of research is better than them paying 100%.\u003Cspan style=\"mso-spacerun: yes;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/span\u003EBut paying 0% is better than paying 20% when general operating money per student has never recovered to the levels that the research enterprise assumed, and when students are progressively taking over from taxpayers in supporting it.\u003Cspan style=\"mso-spacerun: yes;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/span\u003E20% or 50% fro institutional funds would be fine with me were research funded at adequately high levels and as a public good, such that subsidies (including those from students as private individuals) are no longer extracted, left acknowledged, and not reimbursed. \u003Cbr \/\u003EThen, “That emphasis is puzzling because, unlike the rest of the book, it’s really not necessary to the overall argument. Each other piece of evidence goes directly to the devolutionary cycle (p. 36), but it’s not at all clear to me why the external-funding claims support that argument at all.’’ \u003Cbr \/\u003EI tried to address this point above.  \u003Cbr \/\u003EAnd:  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"margin-left: .5in;\"\u003Ehis greater claim that in fact the English department is subsidizing STEM is based on treating institutional funds in two conflicting ways. When they pay for English salaries and overhead, they are treated as external income from tuition and state funds: fees paid for English professors’ work. But when they pay for STEM salaries and overhead, they are treated as internal funds. Newfield is right to call out the PR machine’s implication that STEM pays for itself and English doesn’t, but he’s wrong to interpret this as an internal subsidy.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe terms \u003Ci\u003Eexternal\u003C\/i\u003E and \u003Ci\u003Einternal\u003C\/i\u003E may be confusing.\u003Cspan style=\"mso-spacerun: yes;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/span\u003EExternal funds become internal funds, or what the federal accounts call \u003Ci\u003Einstitution (\u003C\/i\u003Eor \u003Ci\u003Einstitutional) funds\u003C\/i\u003E.\u003Cspan style=\"mso-spacerun: yes;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/span\u003EStudent tuition and state general funds, plus some other smaller streams, become the university’s unrestricted funds that they distribute as they deem best.\u003Cspan style=\"mso-spacerun: yes;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/span\u003EIt’s an “internal” subsidy in the sense that the university is itself paying a share of research costs on top of what it gets from the specific extramural research sponsor (DARPA, The Legacy Foundation, etc.)\u003Cspan style=\"mso-spacerun: yes;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/span\u003EBut the university isn’t creating this money itself, and “profits” from other enterprises (like medical clinics) don’t flow toward core campus operations like instruction and research. \u003Cspan style=\"mso-spacerun: yes;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003ESo I stick with calling this an internal (or institutional) subsidy. But again, I don’t think subsidies are bad. I just think hidden subsidies are bad. \u003Cspan style=\"mso-spacerun: yes;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E(One practical reason that helps propel the decline cycle is that they have convinced legislators that research makes money rather than loses it, so they don’t understand why the state should pay more money for university operations.) \u003Cbr \/\u003EFinally:  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"margin-left: .5in;\"\u003EThat account masks a much bigger problem with reliance on external funding: its intellectual costs. Funding rates are already very low, and today’s “skinny budget” contains draconian cuts to those low budgets. All that means that scientists will be spending more of their time trying in vain to attain funding instead of doing science. (Grant applications are the beginnings of science, yes — but only when high-quality applications are likely to be funded.) Furthermore, the bottleneck by which such an enormous majority of science is funded by just a few agencies raises the prospect of an intellectual monoculture; heterodox inquiry is unlikely to flourish under such concentration. I think it would be better for science and for SASH disciplines for universities to find ways to fund more research across the disciplines internally. \u003C\/div\u003EI hope my account doesn’t \u003Ci\u003Emask\u003C\/i\u003E this problem, even if it doesn’t analyze it.\u003Cspan style=\"mso-spacerun: yes;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/span\u003EI also hope my account helps the discussion you call for by shining a light on how we spend institutional funds now, precisely so we can imagine spending them differently.\u003Cspan style=\"mso-spacerun: yes;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn general, I agree with you that the agency funding situation poses major intellectual problems.\u003Cspan style=\"mso-spacerun: yes;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/span\u003EThese are important and longstanding.\u003Cspan style=\"mso-spacerun: yes;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/span\u003EClark Kerr described federal granting agencies as having created a “putting-out system” that made universities dependent subcontractors with borderline sweatshop conditions, and that was during the golden age of federal granting growth in the late 1950s and early 1960s. More internal funding would help with this quite a bit.\u003Cspan style=\"mso-spacerun: yes;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/span\u003EProjects could be developed in collaboration between faculty and their offices of research, and consortia could be created bottom-up to share costs across universities.\u003Cspan style=\"mso-spacerun: yes;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/span\u003EIt would be helpful to draw up some questions and projects that can’t get funded in the current system but that could under this alternative. \u003Cbr \/\u003EThe drawback of course is that universities would need to quadruple their research funds to cover what we currently fund today, which still wouldn’t be enough, either for STEM or for SASH disciplines.\u003Cspan style=\"mso-spacerun: yes;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/span\u003EI’d like to see a cultural shift that would allow the public to trust universities and their associated professionals enough to do that, but that’s a long road. \u003Cbr \/\u003EIn any case, many thanks again for your very helpful and insightful analysis."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/feeds\/7674097344043424969\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2017\/03\/the-great-mistake-on-research-costs.html#comment-form","title":"22 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/1170716682680204889\/posts\/default\/7674097344043424969"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/1170716682680204889\/posts\/default\/7674097344043424969"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2017\/03\/the-great-mistake-on-research-costs.html","title":"The Great Mistake on Research Costs"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Chris Newfield"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/01078395415386100872"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/4.bp.blogspot.com\/-3aRbb6XZOdU\/WNjbtQfgrVI\/AAAAAAAADRo\/QTFGrBCoA8Q_iQ-G1bM6TBpaCSsxl-whACLcB\/s72-c\/RomanTragediesMarkAnthonyIvoVanHove.jpg","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"22"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1170716682680204889.post-182081106910487241"},"published":{"$t":"2016-11-14T14:37:00.000-08:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2016-11-14T14:37:04.013-08:00"},"category":[{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Politics"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Privatization"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Public Funding"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"public goods"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Public vs. Private"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Higher Ed Policy After the Election"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/-93UeibAJavg\/WCn8A0c6RTI\/AAAAAAAADOU\/xtoNCAsmxL8vBn-l7icDsMu4VJe1BbsAwCLcB\/s1600\/TrumpElectionHouseofHorrorsNYDailyNews.png\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" height=\"320\" src=\"https:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/-93UeibAJavg\/WCn8A0c6RTI\/AAAAAAAADOU\/xtoNCAsmxL8vBn-l7icDsMu4VJe1BbsAwCLcB\/s320\/TrumpElectionHouseofHorrorsNYDailyNews.png\" width=\"236\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EIt's tempting to see higher education as a sideshow in the upheaval that Donald J. Trump's election presents for every arena of national concern--literally every arena, from \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/eandt.theiet.org\/content\/articles\/2016\/11\/trump-seeks-to-back-out-of-paris-climate-deal\/?utm_source=Adestra\u0026amp;utm_campaign=New%20EandT%20News%20-%20Automation%20FINAL%20-%20NON%20MEMBER\u0026amp;utm_medium=Newsletters%20-%20E%26T%20News\u0026amp;utm_content=E%26T%20News%20-%20Non-Members\u0026amp;utm_term=https%3A%2F%2Feandt.theiet.org%2Fcontent%2Farticles%2F2016%2F11%2Ftrump-seeks-to-back-out-of-paris-climate-deal%2F\u0026amp;utm_contact=1100137210\"\u003Eglobal warming\u003C\/a\u003E to Middle East war, from immigration to mass surveillance, from nuclear disarmament to police reform, from Native rights to job creation, etc etc.\u0026nbsp; But this list needs to include higher ed.\u0026nbsp; The Trump victory buried Clintonism, which furnished universities' business model for the last twenty five years.\u0026nbsp; Higher ed now has to reinvent its relationship to the general public.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EI'll discuss this new public relationship a separate post. Here I'll focus on some likely effects, gleaned in part from very interesting presentations and conversations with higher ed scholars, advocates,  administrators and activists at the \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.ashe.ws\/conference\"\u003EASHE convention\u003C\/a\u003E in Columbus this past week. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFirst, the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/assets.donaldjtrump.com\/_landings\/contract\/O-TRU-102316-Contractv02.pdf\"\u003Epromised Trump crackdown on immigration \u003C\/a\u003Ewill increase disruption to undocumented students, students of color, LGBTQ students, women students, and Muslim students.\u0026nbsp; Incidents began the night of the election: see Scott Jaschik's \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.insidehighered.com\/news\/2016\/11\/11\/students-many-colleges-reporting-ethnic-or-racial-harassment-election-day\"\u003EFriday overview \u003C\/a\u003Eand his \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.insidehighered.com\/news\/2016\/11\/14\/protests-and-incidents-spread-following-trump-election-victory\"\u003Eupdate today,\u003C\/a\u003E the Verge's report on the \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.theverge.com\/2016\/11\/11\/13602934\/u-penn-racist-groupme-app-chat-election-2016\"\u003Eadding of University of Pennsylvania students to a racist GroupMe chat \u003C\/a\u003Ebased in \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.philly.com\/philly\/news\/20161112_Racist_messages_target_black_freshmen_at_UPenn_with__lynching_.html?elqTrackId=0ca0818a7f0343e497459ea4d1233776\u0026amp;elq=8eff12fb2191435abea1eb14e906191d\u0026amp;elqaid=11468\u0026amp;elqat=1\u0026amp;elqCampaignId=4486\"\u003EOklahoma\u003C\/a\u003E, the overview of a r\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/oberlinreview.org\/11713\/news\/students-call-for-gibsons-bakery-boycott\/\"\u003Eacialized town-gown altercation\u003C\/a\u003E in Oberlin, OH, among many others. On Sunday, Donald J. Trump \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.huffingtonpost.com\/entry\/donald-trump-hate-crimes_us_5828f3f6e4b02d21bbc952be\"\u003Easked his followers to \"stop it,\"\u003C\/a\u003E though he went on to blame the media, and has not issued a categorical statement like the one David \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.huffingtonpost.com\/davidhalperin\/want-fake-news-trump-stat_b_12944440.html\"\u003EHalperin wrote for him.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAlso on Sunday, Mr. Trump repeated his campaign promise to \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.huffingtonpost.com\/entry\/donald-trump-deport-3-million_us_5828ad2be4b0c4b63b0d22f1\"\u003Edeport up to 3 million undocumented immigrants\u003C\/a\u003E.\u0026nbsp; We've heard of several universities that are planning official statements  in support of undocumented students and others who are being threatened  with insults, degradation, or violence.\u0026nbsp; Universities must defend their students against these attacks. \u0026nbsp; But they will also need to plan for the fact that this puts them in stark opposition to a key strategy of the president-elect.\u0026nbsp; \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESecond, Mr. Trump doesn't much care about higher education.\u0026nbsp; This increases the chances that he will farm out its policy to Congress and\/or to party stalwarts looking for a grudge match against the sector.\u0026nbsp; At ASHE, two people who advocate for higher ed in Washington, D.C., said he probably would not close the Department of Education.\u0026nbsp; It holds $1.3 trillion in student loan assets, for one thing, and it would cost tens of billions of dollars to unwind.\u0026nbsp; (I assume that makes it a honey pot for privatizers in an administration headed by \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2016\/09\/18\/nyregion\/donald-trump-tax-breaks-real-estate.html\"\u003Ea master of corporate access to public subsidies\u003C\/a\u003E, but I haven't figured out how this would work.)\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAssuming there will be a Secretary of Education, a few names have come up: Sen. Lamar Alexander is the dean of Republicans higher ed policymakers.\u0026nbsp; Presidential candidate Ben Carson \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.buzzfeed.com\/johnstanton\/secretary-of-education-ben-carson-heres-a-list-potential-tru?utm_term=.sgmXpGeaV#.gbn5pvGmN\"\u003Eis rumored to want the job\u003C\/a\u003E.\u0026nbsp; The New York \u003Ci\u003ETimes\u003C\/i\u003E also listed Williamson M. Evers, a Hoover fellow whom I thought of more as a K-12 crank, though that may be a point in his favor.\u0026nbsp; Purdue president Mitch Daniels has \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.jconline.com\/story\/opinion\/columnists\/dave-bangert\/2016\/11\/11\/bangert-mitch-daniels-trump-administration-no\/93651764\/\"\u003Edenied he is being considered \u003C\/a\u003Efor a cabinet position, but has a developed higher ed model and \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.americanthinker.com\/blog\/2016\/11\/mitch_daniels_for_secretary_of_education.html\"\u003Eblogosphere supporters\u003C\/a\u003E.\u0026nbsp; The Trump Administration could give a nonpriority area like education to longtime activists to use for ideological target practice.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThird, since Donald Trump already has plenty of targets, he'll more likely just make higher ed \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/@saragoldrickrab\/higher-education-policy-under-trump-e07080c69fbe#.y8baxmcpv\"\u003E\"open for business.\"\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp; I'll expand on Sara Goldrick-Rab's \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/@saragoldrickrab\/higher-education-policy-under-trump-e07080c69fbe#.y8baxmcpv\"\u003Elist\u003C\/a\u003E of possible Trump higher ed priorities.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cul\u003E\u003Cli\u003ENeo-states-rights higher ed would be out of the reach of  federal enforcement, which has been regulating public and private  universities' responses to problems like racial hate crimes and sexual  assault.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EGutting Obama-era regulations on for-profit colleges.\u0026nbsp; Jonathan Fansmith of ACE noted that for the first time in years, Credit Suisse has shifted its recommendation on for-profit college stocks to \"buy.\"\u0026nbsp; Look for more use of the for-profit sector to excuse cuts in public funding that in turn benefit for-profits (for the UK Tory precedent, see Andrew McGettigan's \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.radicalphilosophy.com\/commentary\/%E2%80%98new-providers%E2%80%99-the-creation-of-a-market-in-higher-education\"\u003Eearly overview\u003C\/a\u003E). Expect to see more enrollments and revenues in the higher ed sector with the world record for worst degree outcomes at the highest student cost.\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EReturning a big piece of student loans to private banks.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp; Since new increases in the student loan burden will be unpopular in both main parties, various alt-finance schemes will be floated.\u0026nbsp; The Big 3 are\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cul\u003E\u003Cli\u003E\u003Ci\u003EIncome-contingent loan repayment \u003C\/i\u003Eplans (\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.americanprogress.org\/issues\/education\/news\/2015\/08\/18\/119574\/proposed-student-loan-repayment-plan-would-extend-the-same-income-based-terms-to-all-federal-loan-borrowers\/\"\u003Etouted for expansion\u003C\/a\u003E under the Obama administration).\u0026nbsp; These are better than no-cap repayment. The \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.lrb.co.uk\/v37\/n05\/andrew-mcgettigan\/cash-today\"\u003EUK experience \u003C\/a\u003Eshows they require off-book public subsidies--when students don't have to repay because they don't have high enough incomes, they effectively default and the government covers it. New loan repayment schemes also drive out the goal of no loans to pay back in the first place.\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003E\u003Ci\u003EInstitutional risk-sharing\u003C\/i\u003E. The idea here is that colleges help their graduates pay back loans when the graduates don't earn enough in the workforce to pay back their loans on their own.\u0026nbsp; An advocate, Sen. Alexander, says that the idea is to \"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.aei.org\/publication\/the-future-of-higher-education-senator-lamar-alexander-at-aei\/\"\u003Eensure that colleges have some responsibility\"\u003C\/a\u003E to get students to \"borrow wisely.\"\u0026nbsp; One practical effect would be for universities to reduce their own repayment risk by funneling students into majors with higher average future earnings.\u0026nbsp; This would, over time, mean cutting other majors.\u0026nbsp; Arts and humanities would be first in line for cuts.\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003E\u003Ci\u003EIncome-share agreements, \u003C\/i\u003Ein which an investor gives a student a portion of their college costs in exchange for a share of their future income.\u0026nbsp; Repayment periods are finite (say 9 years) and repayment amounts are capped at a multiple of the original loan (say 2.5x, in \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/the-other-debt-free-college-idea-1460931141\"\u003Ethe Purdue example \u003C\/a\u003Ethat the Wall Street \u003Ci\u003EJournal\u003C\/i\u003E has recommended).\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp; In addition to the indentureship element, the plan seeks to tie the value of a major to its private market return on investment.\u003C\/li\u003E\u003C\/ul\u003E\u003C\/ul\u003EThis businessing of higher ed is not new, but the Donald J. Trump Administration (DJTA) is likely to produce a difference in kind through a massive intensification of degree. The shared theme is the completion of current trends towards marketization, with \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/jhupbooks.press.jhu.edu\/content\/great-mistake\"\u003Eescalated privatization\u003C\/a\u003E as the means.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMitch Daniels, the former Eli Lilly executive and Indiana governor who is now president of Purdue University, has put together the common sense version of the model, called \"Purdue Moves.\"\u0026nbsp; I encourage you to read the \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.americanthinker.com\/blog\/2016\/11\/mitch_daniels_for_secretary_of_education.html\"\u003Eshort post\u003C\/a\u003E about it at the conservative blog \u003Ci\u003EThe American Thinker.\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/i\u003EThe model mixes a populist concern with affordability via tuition freezes together with budget cuts, continuous assessment, return on investment (ROI) metrics, incentives to force students and universities to maximize ROI, a general critique of universities as delivering little, and a dogwhistled neo-culture war on faculty and students who are said to criticize injustice because they won't perform. In the DJTA, the service populism of Michael Crow's New American University will lose out to the corporate populism of Mitch Daniels.\u0026nbsp; This may be the best-case DJTA scenario.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn short, educational and research goals will be more fully subordinated to financial ones than any time in modern history.\u0026nbsp; This will mean a massive curbing of the academic freedom of students and faculty, with tenure-track faculty experiencing the pressures non-tenure-track faculty have known from the start. This will include curbing the freedom of students, even as they pay more than ever, to pursue a major suited to their individual needs, wants, and academic strengths. Forcing the nation's brilliant future poets, journalists, sociologists, and historians into biology and mech E is the height of human inefficiency, and universities will accept it at their peril.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe likely default plan is for senior managers to up the ROI focus they already have.\u0026nbsp; One example comes from Ohio State University, which I discovered while preparing to lecture there last week. The university \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.osu.edu\/features\/2016\/college-is-worth-it.html\"\u003Ereports on research showing that the ROI of a college degree is higher now\u003C\/a\u003E than it was in previous decades. The page states that total financial benefits exceed total individual costs. They (the PR authors, \u003Ci\u003Enot\u003C\/i\u003E the scholars who did the research) then \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/news.osu.edu\/news\/2016\/09\/30\/college-value\/\"\u003Edraw these conclusions:\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/2.bp.blogspot.com\/-hpeqUjggFMw\/WCoDe_1iGSI\/AAAAAAAADOg\/Ms1cENJt7awbXItOc7lcrrwj8brPOKJPwCLcB\/s1600\/HigherEdStillWorthItOSUMayhew%2B3.png\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" height=\"220\" src=\"https:\/\/2.bp.blogspot.com\/-hpeqUjggFMw\/WCoDe_1iGSI\/AAAAAAAADOg\/Ms1cENJt7awbXItOc7lcrrwj8brPOKJPwCLcB\/s400\/HigherEdStillWorthItOSUMayhew%2B3.png\" width=\"400\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EThis list teaches students and their parents to look down on less selective colleges (their problem is poverty not open access), avoid non-STEM majors, and to define college study in employment terms. It obliterates over half of the calculable value of the university, which is non-market, indirect, and social, and ignores the sociocultural, psychological, and regional contributions that universities make to public life. And yet the reponse to the DJTA could be the multiplication of outreach to the public that reduces the value of the higher education they are trying to defend.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EUniversities that respond to the new situation by doubling down on private market and ROI justifications will also intensify rather than redirecting the negative pressures I've described.\u0026nbsp; That is to repeat \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.chronicle.com\/article\/It-s-Easier-to-Kludge\/238373\/?key=dCUViR9a-EOigReN8KYScEB1g92dRGiETmtTfVltz781k5-kXA7_AWJuGtKWUQU9NkVMOE52RGRLTVVTQnJUYUcwdmJKY2U5X1lMNDRwSkptVTB6WVpJVjhuaw\"\u003EThe Great Mistake\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EI'll say more about the better, pro-public justifications in a subsequent post.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/feeds\/182081106910487241\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2016\/11\/higher-ed-policy-after-election.html#comment-form","title":"1 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/1170716682680204889\/posts\/default\/182081106910487241"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/1170716682680204889\/posts\/default\/182081106910487241"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2016\/11\/higher-ed-policy-after-election.html","title":"Higher Ed Policy After the Election"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Chris Newfield"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/01078395415386100872"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/-93UeibAJavg\/WCn8A0c6RTI\/AAAAAAAADOU\/xtoNCAsmxL8vBn-l7icDsMu4VJe1BbsAwCLcB\/s72-c\/TrumpElectionHouseofHorrorsNYDailyNews.png","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"1"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1170716682680204889.post-5030011984419741009"},"published":{"$t":"2016-11-08T16:09:00.002-08:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2016-11-09T06:33:04.081-08:00"},"category":[{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Funding Model"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Future University"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Privatization"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Public Funding"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"public goods"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Public vs. Private"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Biting the Populist Bullet"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-L2P9QF59MZU\/WCJpyQKByCI\/AAAAAAAADNs\/FJnb2Nw57Uw5hpcjs42waDlQAm10XaedQCLcB\/s1600\/The%2BGreat%2BMistake.jpg\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" height=\"320\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-L2P9QF59MZU\/WCJpyQKByCI\/AAAAAAAADNs\/FJnb2Nw57Uw5hpcjs42waDlQAm10XaedQCLcB\/s320\/The%2BGreat%2BMistake.jpg\" width=\"200\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/jhupbooks.press.jhu.edu\/content\/great-mistake\"\u003E\u003Ci\u003EThe Great Mistake\u003C\/i\u003E \u003C\/a\u003Eis out! And I have \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.insidehighered.com\/views\/2016\/11\/08\/nations-electoral-divisions-highlight-questions-about-role-public-universities?mc_cid=bd6daeee84\u0026amp;mc_eid=38d19ecc62\"\u003Ea related piece in today's Inside Higher Ed \u003C\/a\u003Eabout the choice facing the public university after the election.\u0026nbsp; Regardless of the vote today, the 2\/3rds of the U.S. population without a college degree will still be treated like second-class citizens by the political establishment. Most of those will still feel that public universities aren't on their side.\u0026nbsp; In this common case, they don't see what difference public funding for universities makes or why regular people should pay for it.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMy article asks what we can do about this, and the answer starts with universities working directly with \"red-state\" regions rather than helping their college population escape them.\u0026nbsp; Have a look and tell me what you think.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EI encountered a version of the problem preparing my lecture at Ohio State, where the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.osu.edu\/features\/2016\/college-is-worth-it.html\"\u003Ecampus website features research\u003C\/a\u003E by one of their distinguished higher ed scholars into why college is still worth it.\u0026nbsp; The page focuses only on the private market value of finishing college, meaning the graduate's higher future earnings.\u0026nbsp; It turns out that college offers a 12-14 percent return on investment.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ETrue enough.\u0026nbsp; But justifying public universities in private-good terms is what we might call . . . the great mistake.\u0026nbsp; It's a political mistake because we can't ask people to subsidize higher ed if all it does is raise individual graduate's future salaries. Milton Friedman \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/faculty.smu.edu\/millimet\/classes\/eco4361\/readings\/friedman%201955.pdf\"\u003Emade this point in 1955\u003C\/a\u003E: yes we should subsidize \"general education for citizenship\" (though not, according to him, with direct funding to colleges); no we should not subsidize \"specialized vocational training\" that benefits only that individual.\u0026nbsp; We don't tax people to support horseback riding academies because we don't think riding skills are a public good (though that could always change).\u0026nbsp; So the ROI argument that is supposed to inspire the taxpayer with the public university's utility actually gives them a reason to force the student to front the costs. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe ROI argument is also an economic mistake because, in contrast to the case for riding academies, 2\/3rds of the total value of universities is nonmarket and\/or indirect and\/or social. So universities--and OSU has plenty of company--alienate a huge percentage of voters who aren't associated with college and then guarantee public underinvestment by ignoring the university's public value, all with our supposedly pragmatic \"here's what's in it for you\" argument.\u0026nbsp; There's a lot more on this and related issues in the book, where I use \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Higher-Learning-Greater-Good-Education\/dp\/0801890535\"\u003Ethe work\u003C\/a\u003E of the economist Walter McMahon among others to talk about our colossally foolish abandoning of the public good understanding of higher ed.\u0026nbsp; For starters, university publicists need to change their strategy radically to include the public-good value.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAfter my lecture yesterday, my host took me to see a movie I've been trying to find for months. It's \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.starvingthebeast.net\/\"\u003E\u003Ci\u003EStarving the Beast,\u003C\/i\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E about the Republican war on public university funding\u003Ci\u003E \u003C\/i\u003Ein six states. It interviews\u0026nbsp; pro-public and anti-public activists and intellectuals about the state of the public university, with the former group including fairly conservative senior managers, and the latter largely funded by right-wing think tanks.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EA member of the pro-public camp, a former president of UT Austin, laid out the stakes correctly when he said that the current trend is towards excellent higher ed for an elite and lower quality for everyone else.\u0026nbsp; Yes indeed, that is the plan.\u0026nbsp; UNC-Chapel Hill's Gene Nichol said that the idea of the public university was, in contrast, to provide the best that American higher education had to offer to everyone who was willing to undertake it.\u0026nbsp; The University of Virginia's Siva Vaidhyanathan gave the best short take-down of Clayton Christensen's notion of disruptive innovation that you will see, and also ended the film with a glowing vision of what places like Iowa State did to change the lives of the everyday people in their regions.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe anti-public people, including\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.texasmonthly.com\/articles\/storming-the-ivory-tower\/\"\u003E Jeff Sandefer\u003C\/a\u003E in Texas, were focused on undermining the alleged power of liberal professors and putting higher ed on a pay-to-play basis.\u0026nbsp; You would study 14th century painting only if you were willing to pay for it. The public would effectively pay for nothing, presumably because the paying of taxes does not allow consent for any specific expenditure, which violates the definition of personal freedom of the anti-public folks.\u0026nbsp; (A version of the hardcore anti-public plan has \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/v2.lareviewofbooks.org\/article\/the-counterreformation-in-higher-education\/\"\u003Eactually been implemented in the United Kingdom\u003C\/a\u003E by the Tory government.)\u0026nbsp; The anti-public people were fairly happy with the obvious effect on public universities (it was an all-research-flagship film), which is that they are losing their independence both intellectually and financially from the political arena.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThere's much more to say about the whole debate and I'm sorry \u003Ci\u003EStarving the Beast \u003C\/i\u003Eisn't for sale for $5 on the Internet--it should have been all over the place in election season. It has some lovely idealism about the enlightened society, and it stages a major battle between free development and political control.\u0026nbsp; But the film didn't feature students except in atmosphere shots, or professors in action in teaching in research.\u0026nbsp; This means that it retained the public university as an abstract ideal, one that won't be as important as food, shelter, basic employment, and related core goods that so much of the population is struggling with.\u0026nbsp; \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe only thing to do in this situation is to double down on the public vision.\u0026nbsp; The great mistake is that we aren't allowing public universities to  deliver a fully educated society.\u0026nbsp; What we're wrecking is the  institutional and financial means to deliver \u003Ci\u003Ethat\u003C\/i\u003E--better quality and much more broadly than we are doing now.\u0026nbsp; The recovery will come when we make the vision of free development a populist cause.\u0026nbsp; Higher learning needs to be funded and implemented at regional colleges as well as at the venerable and monumental and overly-selective flagships.\u0026nbsp; The university's democracy project can beat the goal of political control, but only if it enlists the non-college population by giving them what we know changes lives.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/feeds\/5030011984419741009\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2016\/11\/biting-populist-bullet.html#comment-form","title":"14 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/1170716682680204889\/posts\/default\/5030011984419741009"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/1170716682680204889\/posts\/default\/5030011984419741009"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2016\/11\/biting-populist-bullet.html","title":"Biting the Populist Bullet"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Chris Newfield"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/01078395415386100872"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-L2P9QF59MZU\/WCJpyQKByCI\/AAAAAAAADNs\/FJnb2Nw57Uw5hpcjs42waDlQAm10XaedQCLcB\/s72-c\/The%2BGreat%2BMistake.jpg","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"14"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1170716682680204889.post-8101185396538464518"},"published":{"$t":"2016-02-26T17:19:00.001-08:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2016-07-22T06:32:09.547-07:00"},"category":[{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Budget"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Politics"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Public vs. Private"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Strategies \u0026 Goals"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"UC Berkeley"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"The New Normal isn't Normal--It Erodes Democracy"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/-82tfVotZh6E\/Vs9C92JwBOI\/AAAAAAAADFs\/Mhc9NrQWkmg\/s1600\/SFSU%2BWe%2BMake%2BCommencement%2BHappen.jpg\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" height=\"212\" src=\"https:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/-82tfVotZh6E\/Vs9C92JwBOI\/AAAAAAAADFs\/Mhc9NrQWkmg\/s320\/SFSU%2BWe%2BMake%2BCommencement%2BHappen.jpg\" width=\"320\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EWe've been told that public colleges and universities have entered a New Normal. It's supposed to be stable and sustainable. It gives colleges less--to make them learn to do more. \u0026nbsp; Happy scenes like commencement at San Francisco State, at left, are to carry on unimpeded, with lower costs but no loss of learning or research.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis week, this insidious narrative was again undone by several stories about San Francisco State, UC Berkeley, and their private cousin Stanford University. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003E1. Defunding Democracy\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFirst, a rehearsal: The democratic vision of U.S. higher ed was that the burgeoning masses could get a degree that was cognitively the same as that of elites, even though they lacked the latter's social networks and private resources. \u0026nbsp;Twins separated at graduation, one going to Stanford, say, and one to UC Berkeley, with a sibling already enrolled at San Francisco State, would have student experiences that would differ in trappings but not essentials. \u0026nbsp;The great faculty and facilities at the two public universities would allow them to offer cognitive gain that was functionally similar to that received by the Stanford twin, who would have social but not intellectual advantages. \u0026nbsp;No one thought they were dooming public university students to second- or third-tier status in a secret caste system. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOf course four years of Stanford seminars, where the \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/colleges.usnews.rankingsandreviews.com\/best-colleges\/stanford-1305\"\u003Estudent:faculty ratio is now 4:1,\u003C\/a\u003E had advantages that SF State's 50-student courses or Berkeley's 600-student lectures did not. But economists calculated that by 1980, public colleges spent 70 cents for every dollar spent by the privates (\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Why-Does-College-Cost-Much\/dp\/0199744505\/ref=tmm_hrd_title_0?ie=UTF8\u0026amp;qid=1385895631\u0026amp;sr=8-1-spell\"\u003Ep 237\u003C\/a\u003E). The assumption was that the gap would continue to close. As it did, artificial and unjust barriers of gender, race, religion would continue to erode as the wider society became more prosperous and more enlightened.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EInstead, by the 1990s public colleges were spending only 53 cents on the private dollar. \u0026nbsp;The five public flagships that had been in the top 20 in \u003Ci\u003EUS News \u0026amp; World Report\u003C\/i\u003E's first ranking, in 1987, later all fell out of that bracket (\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Why-Does-College-Cost-Much\/dp\/0199744505\/ref=tmm_hrd_title_0?ie=UTF8\u0026amp;qid=1385895631\u0026amp;sr=8-1-spell\"\u003Ep 237\u003C\/a\u003E). \u0026nbsp;By 2013, public research universities were on average spending 45 cents on the private research university dollar. \u0026nbsp; Public masters universities like SF State were spending 21 cents. \u0026nbsp;Community colleges, the favored political cure to our national attainment ills, were spending 14 cents on the private research university dollar (all from\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.deltacostproject.org\/sites\/default\/files\/products\/15-4626%20Final01%20Delta%20Cost%20Project%20College%20Spending%2011131.406.P0.02.001%20....pdf\"\u003EFigure A2)\u003C\/a\u003E. \u0026nbsp;Meanwhile, UC Berkeley's Pell Grant rate--a proxy for low family income--is 35% while Stanford's is 15%. Since UC Berkeley enrolls over 27,000 undergrads to Stanford's 7000, UC Berkeley educates 9 times the number of low-income students each year. \u0026nbsp;It has much less money per poorer student to educate them. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EWe have been taught to call this efficiency. \u0026nbsp;It is grossly inefficient, socially speaking. It is also unjust.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003E2. A Tale of Two Universities\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis week, Nike chairman Phil Knight announced that he was \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.npr.org\/sections\/thetwo-way\/2016\/02\/24\/467937476\/nike-co-founder-donates-400-million-to-stanford-university\"\u003Egiving $450 million to found Stanford's Knight-Hennessy Scholars program\u003C\/a\u003E, which would bring the best and brightest from around the world to study at Stanford so they could return to their home countries to address major problems there. \u0026nbsp;Press coverage likened them to\u0026nbsp;the Rhodes Scholarships. Stanford will apparently contribute another $300 million, for a total endowment of $750 million. \u0026nbsp;The statements of the two principals, donor Phil Knight and Stanford president John Hennessy, made it clear that the goal is to create global leaders. \u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.kqed.org\/a\/forum\/R201602241000\"\u003EKQED's Forum interview with Mr. Hennessy\u003C\/a\u003E features repeated claims that the program will not only offer the best academic training but will create the world's top leadership in every domain. The key word was leadership. \u0026nbsp;Hearing the elaborate plans for special treatment of a very small group of international students, I concluded the program is tightly focused on deluxe training for a worldwide super-elite. \u0026nbsp;They would preside over the broad democracy of intelligence rather than be part of it.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe micro scale of the student output is important. \u0026nbsp;Leaving aside the tarnished public image of university fundraising, increasingly\u0026nbsp;defined as \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/gawker.com\/rich-people-will-not-stop-giving-huge-unnecessary-dona-1761010957\"\u003Erich people giving huge, unnecessary donations to rich colleges\u003C\/a\u003E,\u0026nbsp;it looks as though the gift money goes to cover full cost of attendance for \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.stanforddaily.com\/2016\/02\/24\/stanford-launching-knight-hennessy-scholarship-to-attract-top-graduates\/\"\u003Ea total of 100 students for three years\u003C\/a\u003E. \u0026nbsp; The program will have at most 300 students at a given time. A 5% annual return on the overall endowment will generate $125,000 per student per year. \u0026nbsp;This is not enormously more than what a private research university normally spends on each student ($90,000 in the Delta Cost figures linked above). And yet Knight-Hennessy has overnight become the #\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.nacubo.org\/Documents\/EndowmentFiles\/2014_Endowment_Market_Values_Revised.pdf\"\u003E130 endowment in the country\u003C\/a\u003E, about the size of Bucknell University's, itself a fairly posh school with 3,565 undergraduates. It is twice the endowment of that of the University of Wisconsin system. \u0026nbsp;In short, the Knight-Stanford gift is effective as micro-scale elite training but woefully inefficient as a mode of democratic higher education. \u0026nbsp;It just isn't part of that world.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis might seem unfair to the Knights, since they have given generously to Oregon's flagship public university, the University of Oregon. \u0026nbsp;But of the \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.oregonlive.com\/playbooks-profits\/index.ssf\/2014\/08\/phil_and_penny_knight_thanks_t.html\"\u003E$1 billion the Knights had donated to charity\u003C\/a\u003E prior to this gift (on an estimated net worth of $19 billion), $34.7 million went to public university campus academics (non-medical). \u0026nbsp;The figure rises to $76.4 million by counting their gift to UO's athlete tutoring center.)\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMeanwhile, also this week, San Francisco State \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/tequilasovereign.wordpress.com\/2016\/02\/22\/the-beginning-and-end-of-ethnic-studies\/\"\u003Eprofessor Joanne Barker revealed \u003C\/a\u003Ethat the SF State central administration has proposed that the College of Ethnic Studies be cut by 13.8% next year. This would bring post-2008 cuts to 25% of COES's budget (in nominal dollars). \u0026nbsp;COES is the only college of ethnic studies in the United States and its founding and development are a matter of national legend. \u0026nbsp;Each year it teaches most of a Stanford (6000 enrollments) with a current-year budget of $3.6 million. \u0026nbsp;COES is required to do this, on a per-student budget, expressed as a share of 6\/7ths of Stanford's instructional expenditures -- which I estimate from\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/bondholder-information.stanford.edu\/pdf\/SU_AnnualFinancialReport_2015.pdf\"\u003Ethis financial report\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/a\u003E(p 54)\u0026nbsp;and the Delta averages\u0026nbsp;to be between $440 and $540 million--well, the fraction is too gruesome even for me.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn Prof. Barker's post, I was riveted by what few faculty discuss: the public college working conditions as they affect student learning. She noted that Cal State defines their basic teaching load to be 5 courses a term, which is similar to the load at a community college or high school. Faculty members then buy out courses with administration and research, generally one course per term for each activity.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\"tr_bq\"\u003EThe other three courses they teach, and they are expected to enroll 50  students each. The overwhelming majority of faculty in the CSU are not  provided with teaching assistance. This means that faculty are expected  to teach three courses and grade the work of 150 students per semester  without aid.\u003C\/blockquote\u003EIdeally, a humanities or social science course would assign each student two papers in a semester and then offer detailed grading of the kind that allows students to see their full range of issues and address them. \u0026nbsp;But one professor can only grade 300 papers on top of the rest of their teaching, research, and administrative job by sacrificing the rest of their life. \u0026nbsp;The other solution is to cap the quality of feedback at a modest level, by replacing at least one paper with an exam and standardizing the exams as much as possible. \u0026nbsp;The normal workload sharply limits the intensity and detail available to an individual SF State student. \u0026nbsp;Politicians who like the \"efficiency\" of these low costs are not thinking about the cost to educational quality for non-elite students.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ECSU faculty are also expected to do research. \u0026nbsp;These days, state college tenure-track faculty have research university doctorates and the intellectual lives and research ambitions to match. \u0026nbsp; SF State students are supposed to be exposed to the same up-to-date material as their siblings at research universities in order to avoid the educational class system we're discussing here.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EProf. Barker described the SF State\/ Cal State system for research support:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\"tr_bq\"\u003EThe only viable support for faculty research—the foundational basis  on which curriculum design, publications, and conference presentations  are produced—has to come from a modicum of CSU and campus-based grants  and one-term sabbaticals. These grants and awards are highly  competitive.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\"tr_bq\"\u003EAt SFSU and in the COES, faculty wanting time for the  professional development of their research and writing or for travel  expenses to vet their work at conferences and workshops generally must  secure outside funding from equally competitive sources. The policy has  been that faculty are “charged” $10-12,000 per course per term for  course release. Meaning, effectively, that a faculty person who wants  time off teaching for research and does not have a CSU or SFSU grant to  do so must secure an outside grant or fellowship at a \u003Ci\u003Eminimum\u003C\/i\u003E  of $30,000 for a term and $60,000 for the academic year. Since most  national fellowships, such as the Ford Foundation, average $45,000\/year,  CSU and SFSU has created a situation that essentially disqualifies  faculty from being able to apply\u0026nbsp;for these awards unless they are  willing to make up the difference out of pocket.\u003C\/blockquote\u003EOur colleagues in the CSU system already teach too much to do the expected research at scale, and apparently are also asked to supply from their own salary a\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2014\/08\/how-can-public-research-universities.html\"\u003E subsidy that normally comes from \"institutional funds.\"\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp; These conditions demand their heroic efforts to maintain their research programs while single-handedly developing higher-order skills in 150 undergraduates at a time. \u0026nbsp;The simple reason is that the CSU system is not funded to support research, and the very limited funding they do allot to this will not go in any quantity to the arts, humanities, and qualitative social sciences.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis is the context in which the New Normal demands the public university be cut yet again.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003E3. Berkeley's Failed Formula\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe other widening gap is between a university like Stanford and one like UC Berkeley. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe post-2008 cocktail of cuts and austerity has been very hard on UC Berkeley's budgets. \u0026nbsp;Officials followed the post-public formula to the letter: accept the public funding era is over and keep increasing fundraising and sponsored research. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThey also renewed the fixation on inefficiency. \u0026nbsp;The Birgeneau administration hired outside consultants, and they generated a plan for administrative savings called Operation Excellence (OE), which had a number of component programs. \u0026nbsp;The idea was that the projected annual savings of $75 million would help the campus weather the latest round of major public funding cuts (from 2002 to 2012, UC Berkeley's state general fund appropriation went from nearly $500 million to under $300 million per year, \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/vcaf.berkeley.edu\/sites\/default\/files\/Time%20is%20not%20on%20our%20side%201%2011.29.13%20FINAL.pdf\"\u003Ea drop of 54% in real terms). \u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESome of OE's programs made a lot of sense, like simplified equipment sourcing. \u0026nbsp;Others would provide little or no return in exchange for degraded service, like the herding of departmental staff into a separate building off campus under Campus\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.dailycal.org\/2012\/05\/21\/uc-berkeley-staff-members-to-move-to-new-campus-shared-services-center\/\"\u003EShared Services\u003C\/a\u003E. \u0026nbsp;The promises of savings were always overblown (see \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2010\/09\/bains-blow-to-berkeley.html\"\u003E\"Bain's Blow to Berkeley\")\u003C\/a\u003E, and the implementation seemed to be undermining the efficiency of distributed innovation rather than reinforcing it. Faculty were being separated from staff, and it appeared that different departments were going to get different speeds and quality of service depending on their ability to pay, United Airlines style. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBut neither the staff segregation nor the new service inequalities have had budgetary benefits. The overall OE annual savings are about \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/vcaf.berkeley.edu\/sites\/default\/files\/2015ProgressReport_final_web.pdf\"\u003Ehalf of the projected $75 million\u003C\/a\u003E (page 12). \u0026nbsp; Campus Shared Services has failed completely. Its annual savings are now expected to be zero--actually negative, since the campus has lost millions on this program so far. \u0026nbsp;Even if everything had gone according to plan, OE is a classic example of a \"nickel solution\"-- $75 million a year is 3.33% of the campus's $2.25 billion annual budget, and this benefit would never have fixed larger budgetary problems. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESome of these figures come from outgoing Vice Chancellor for Finance and Administration John Wilton's 2013 budget commentaries, \"Time is Not On Our Side\" (\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/vcaf.berkeley.edu\/sites\/default\/files\/Time%20is%20not%20on%20our%20side%201%2011.29.13%20FINAL.pdf\"\u003EPart 1\u003C\/a\u003E and \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/vcaf.berkeley.edu\/sites\/default\/files\/Time%20is%20not%20on%20our%20side%202%20%2011.29.13%20FINAL.pdf\"\u003EPart 2)\u003C\/a\u003E. \u0026nbsp;The structural deficit was already well known to officials by then, and in fact had been a topic of discussion quite a bit earlier. \u0026nbsp;But the strategies that were part of the deficit's formation were still expected to fix it.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe half-way privatization model has been broken for a long time, and is now scaring everyone, even the \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.sacbee.com\/opinion\/editorials\/article45547677.html\"\u003ESacramento\u0026nbsp;\u003Ci\u003EBee\u003C\/i\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E and Los Angeles \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.latimes.com\/opinion\/editorials\/la-ed-future-uc-20160223-story.html\"\u003E\u003Ci\u003ETimes \u003C\/i\u003Eeditorial boards. \u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp;They are right to be scared. Public flagships no longer have the resources to do teaching and research at the top level of quality--and for new social conditions-- that the state assumed for\u0026nbsp;\u003Ci\u003Eall\u003C\/i\u003E\u0026nbsp;its non-elite students.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EI don't know which of the old ideas UC Berkeley officials thought would fix the structural problems. Perhaps they hoped that growth in non-resident tuition, coupled with a doubling in professional school fees (\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.sfchronicle.com\/education\/article\/Tuitionbreakis-nearly-erased-at-Cal-6829326.php\"\u003Esince 2005)\u003C\/a\u003E, plus a few big fundraising wins, some new industry partnerships, and more non-operating revenues, would get them to the other side of the Jerry Brown austerity era where they would see serious tuition increases again. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EPerhaps they \u003Ci\u003Edidn't\u003C\/i\u003E think they could fix the structural problems. \u0026nbsp;John Wilton \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/vcaf.berkeley.edu\/sites\/default\/files\/Time%20is%20not%20on%20our%20side%201%2011.29.13%20FINAL.pdf\"\u003Emade this case very well.\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\"tr_bq\" style=\"margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit;\"\u003EWhile it is tempting to believe that reductions in our operating expenses are the key to long-term stability and sustainability, it is fairly easy to illustrate that it is not possible for costs to become\u0026nbsp;consistent with current revenue projections if we are to maintain the current standards of access and excellence.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003C!--[if gte mso 9]\u003E\u003Cxml\u003E \u003Co:DocumentProperties\u003E  \u003Co:Revision\u003E0\u003C\/o:Revision\u003E  \u003Co:TotalTime\u003E0\u003C\/o:TotalTime\u003E  \u003Co:Pages\u003E1\u003C\/o:Pages\u003E  \u003Co:Words\u003E48\u003C\/o:Words\u003E  \u003Co:Characters\u003E276\u003C\/o:Characters\u003E  \u003Co:Company\u003EUniversity of California\u003C\/o:Company\u003E  \u003Co:Lines\u003E2\u003C\/o:Lines\u003E  \u003Co:Paragraphs\u003E1\u003C\/o:Paragraphs\u003E  \u003Co:CharactersWithSpaces\u003E323\u003C\/o:CharactersWithSpaces\u003E  \u003Co:Version\u003E14.0\u003C\/o:Version\u003E \u003C\/o:DocumentProperties\u003E 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mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;  mso-para-margin-top:0in;  mso-para-margin-right:0in;  mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt;  mso-para-margin-left:0in;  mso-pagination:widow-orphan;  font-size:10.0pt;  font-family:Cambria;  mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;  mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;  mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;  mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;  mso-fareast-language:JA;} \u003C\/style\u003E\u003C![endif]--\u003E   \u003C!--StartFragment--\u003E       \u003C!--EndFragment--\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"MsoNormal\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003ESince cost-cutting wouldn't actually work, and since, as Mr. Wilton had observed, Berkeley now competed for its three largest revenue streams (tuition, research, and philanthropy) against every other university in the country, Plan B would be, by default, a reduction in quality. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EPlan A has of course always been restored public funding, which is the only way to pursue the democratization of intelligence. \u0026nbsp;But senior managers seem to have given up on that.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003E4. Berkeley's Faulty Forum\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis is the context for Chancellor Dirks's \"\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/chancellor.berkeley.edu\/announcement-comprehensive-planning-and-analysis-process\"\u003EAnnouncement of Comprehensive Planning and Analysis Process.\"\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp;Its most important move is to announce the structural deficit. \u0026nbsp; It also describes short- and long-term measures. They won't have much effect: they have all been in place for years, and their effects are already baked into the budgetary cake.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe sole exception is \"realignment\" of academic structures. \u0026nbsp;That will make a meaningful difference only if it involves (a) mass staff layoffs, perhaps in the company of (b) faculty layoffs, accomplished by shrinking some academic departments and closing others. \u0026nbsp; Staff groups have already been raising the alarm about this prospect, which was the lead-in to the Forum the campus's senior leaders held last week.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EChancellor Dirks et al. defined four major planning areas: athletics, fundraising, administrative initiatives, and academic realignment. \u0026nbsp; Faculty members from whom we've heard thought there was little news about the actual planning. \u0026nbsp;One wrote,\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\"tr_bq\"\u003EWell,\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\"tr_bq\"\u003E(1) it would have been considerably shorter if four words had been proscribed:\u003Cspan style=\"mso-spacerun: yes;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/span\u003E\"excellence,\" \"strategic,\" \"synergy,\" \"realignment.\"\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\"tr_bq\"\u003E(2) Provost Steele offered no substance except at the end, when he pretty much admitted that they plan to solve the problem of (a) increased enrollment; (b) shrinkage of graduate programs\/increase in $ amount of each fellowship by.... increasing lecturers.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\"tr_bq\"\u003E\u003Co:p\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/o:p\u003E(3) on fundraising, they claim \"the work shows that every dollar returns $7.\"\u003Cspan style=\"mso-spacerun: yes;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp; I have since asked someone in the relevant office for the numbers and have been told it doesn't have that information.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003EIn the Forum, they parried the fact that 99% of giving is restricted by claiming gifts have funded buildings, endowed chairs, etc., which is of course true but not to the point about covering operating costs.\u003Cspan style=\"mso-spacerun: yes;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp; The foundation and campus board get representatives on\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003Ethe advisory committee for the \"Office of Strategic Initiatives.\" \u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\"tr_bq\"\u003E(4) Sibley auditorium was FILLED, and faculty asked many good questions--about how much of our structural deficit is debt servicing (I think they said that's now at $100 million, and will grow soon to $150 million, but they're seeking debt relief from UCOP).\u0026nbsp;\u003Cspan style=\"mso-spacerun: yes;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003EOne asked, why not use cash to pay down principal, instead of trying to \"generate revenue\" by entirely \"realigning\" a university that is, academically speaking, working well.\u003Cspan style=\"mso-spacerun: yes;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/span\u003EAnswer to this and to all:\u003Cspan style=\"mso-spacerun: yes;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/span\u003E\"everything's on the table\" (but really, we only have 3 years of savings, so we can't do what you're asking).\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\"tr_bq\"\u003E(5) they're pretty much using the PhD job situation to justify their plans for expanding the # of money-generating Masters programs, both professional and academic.\u003Cspan style=\"mso-spacerun: yes;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/span\u003EAgain, a lot of push-back against this:\u003Cspan style=\"mso-spacerun: yes;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/span\u003Eone scholar saying that if Masters programs are to be good, they need faculty attention, which means less faculty attention to undergraduates.\u003Cspan style=\"mso-spacerun: yes;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp; 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\u003Cw:LsdException Locked=\"false\" Priority=\"33\" SemiHidden=\"false\"    UnhideWhenUsed=\"false\" QFormat=\"true\" Name=\"Book Title\"\/\u003E  \u003Cw:LsdException Locked=\"false\" Priority=\"37\" Name=\"Bibliography\"\/\u003E  \u003Cw:LsdException Locked=\"false\" Priority=\"39\" QFormat=\"true\" Name=\"TOC Heading\"\/\u003E \u003C\/w:LatentStyles\u003E\u003C\/xml\u003E\u003C![endif]--\u003E \u003C!--[if gte mso 10]\u003E\u003Cstyle\u003E \/* Style Definitions *\/ table.MsoNormalTable  {mso-style-name:\"Table Normal\";  mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;  mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;  mso-style-noshow:yes;  mso-style-priority:99;  mso-style-parent:\"\";  mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;  mso-para-margin-top:0in;  mso-para-margin-right:0in;  mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt;  mso-para-margin-left:0in;  mso-pagination:widow-orphan;  font-size:10.0pt;  font-family:Cambria;  mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;  mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;  mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;  mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;  mso-fareast-language:JA;} \u003C\/style\u003E\u003C![endif]--\u003E   \u003C!--StartFragment--\u003E                     \u003C!--EndFragment--\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"MsoNormal\"\u003E\u003Co:p\u003EThat writer also noted that Berkeley Faculty Association Co-Chair Michael Buroway made a statement that seemed to speak for many faculty, judging from the applause that greeted his questions:\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\"tr_bq\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit; text-indent: -0.25in;\"\u003EOver the last decade there have been a number of costly ventures – from the renovation of the stadium to the Lower Sproul Plaza development; from Operation Excellence and Campus Shared Services to the experiment in On-Line Education; from the Energy Biosciences Institute to CITRIS. Each project is rolled out with great fanfare as a lucrative investment to be recovered sometime in the future, whereas each one has proven to be a financial albatross.\u0026nbsp;There seems to be systemic pattern of fiscal irrationality. But from where does it come?\u003C\/span\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\"tr_bq\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit; text-indent: -0.25in;\"\u003EIf I may answer my own question - a major part of the responsibility lies with the administration itself. The university appears to have been hijacked by what we might call spiralists – those who advance their careers by spiraling from one organization to the next. They stay for a few years, advancing their portfolio with a signature project that then launches them into a higher orbit and plunges the university into a downward spiral of accumulating debt. The latest case in point is the outgoing VC for Finance and Administration, John Wilton, who arrived five years ago to replace another spiralist, Nathan Brostrom. Like Brostrom, Wilton is now moving on, leaving behind a train wreck.\u003C\/span\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\"tr_bq\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit; text-indent: -0.25in;\"\u003EWill Wilton’s replacement be yet another spiralist from the financial world?\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"apple-converted-space\" style=\"font-family: inherit; text-indent: -0.25in;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit; text-indent: -0.25in;\"\u003EWhy don’t we replace him with one of our own great economists? If we are a recruiting ground for the chair of the Federal Reserve Board and for the Director of the National Economic Council, why not for the VC for Finance and Administration?\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\"tr_bq\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: inherit; text-indent: -0.25in;\"\u003EI’ve really only got one question: is the administration prepared to acknowledge its own contribution to our annual deficit and, if so, what does it propose to do about it?\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"MsoNormal\"\u003E\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EThere were apparently no answers to these questions. \u0026nbsp;But the trend is clear. Without restored public funding, the New Normal means the permanent downgrading of all levels of public higher education, and the reversion of top-quality learning and research to small elites. \u0026nbsp;Unless we restore cut public funding, California will continue to pioneer educational post-democracy."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/feeds\/8101185396538464518\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2016\/02\/the-new-normal-isnt-normal-it-erodes.html#comment-form","title":"8 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/1170716682680204889\/posts\/default\/8101185396538464518"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/1170716682680204889\/posts\/default\/8101185396538464518"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2016\/02\/the-new-normal-isnt-normal-it-erodes.html","title":"The New Normal isn't Normal--It Erodes Democracy"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Chris Newfield"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/01078395415386100872"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/-82tfVotZh6E\/Vs9C92JwBOI\/AAAAAAAADFs\/Mhc9NrQWkmg\/s72-c\/SFSU%2BWe%2BMake%2BCommencement%2BHappen.jpg","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"8"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1170716682680204889.post-248733592757177807"},"published":{"$t":"2016-02-17T12:01:00.000-08:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2016-04-07T12:51:09.348-07:00"},"category":[{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Budget"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"California"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Humanities"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Income"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Inequality"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Public Funding"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Public vs. Private"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Strategies \u0026 Goals"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Where I Implant UC, There Shall Inequality Be"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-VK_VIzC8GLk\/VsSsywzZLpI\/AAAAAAAADE8\/16OOjBAR4_A\/s1600\/CA%2BInequality%2BTop-1-Precent%2BIncreased%2BShar1.png\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" height=\"317\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-VK_VIzC8GLk\/VsSsywzZLpI\/AAAAAAAADE8\/16OOjBAR4_A\/s320\/CA%2BInequality%2BTop-1-Precent%2BIncreased%2BShar1.png\" width=\"320\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EI realize there are many other factors, but the geography of the state inequality boom does not put the University of California system on the side of broad income growth.\u0026nbsp; Take a look at the figure at left, from a new report by the California Budget and Policy Center.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOf the top 12 regions that have seen the highest percentage of growth go to the top 1%, 7 have UC campuses.\u0026nbsp; Of the others, one has Stanford and SJSU, another has a Cal Poly, and two are something akin to agricultural plantations.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E3 UC campuses serve more egalitarian regions (Davis, Merced, and Riverside).\u0026nbsp; They are also lower-income--and not associated with California's famous tech economy.\u0026nbsp; (I mean tech broadly to include related (and well-paying) financial and other services, and retain the murkiness of the term, whose aggregate employment generally remains \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.latimes.com\/business\/la-fi-la-tech-economy-20150608-story.html\"\u003Eless than 10 percent of any regional tota\u003C\/a\u003El.)\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EResearch universities do not only serve their local regions, but there is national pressure for them to shift the balance back in this direction, and UC's D-M-R campuses can plausibly invoke regional service in their pitch for funds. Partial proof was the Riverside campus's successful bid to start a medical school that the state promised not to fund properly, but that carried the day on the basis of its location in a medically-underserved region that could also use new jobs.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EWhat can we make of the kind of stretched correlation I've just produced? We can focus on the politics of the links rather than on the economic causalities.\u0026nbsp; The latter are very hard to identify. But politics generally works with exactly this kind of loose association.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ETwo generations ago, UC's association with the \"knowledge industry\" was an association with rising incomes distributed widely in the population. This reflected the rise in general individual productivity, which could in turn be traced to all levels of educational advancement, particularly bachelor's degree attainment.\u0026nbsp; UC could say it was building a broad middle-class. Politicians of both major parties had little reason not to fund that.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EToday, UC's association with the tech economy is an association with the inequality boom.\u0026nbsp; While the productivity of middle-income people does not rise more slowly than those at the top, their wages do.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp; (Explanations for income growth at the top are generally about market pricing power of specific skills, not about their superior productivity growth.)\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp; Going to a UC does not now insure that your wages will rise with your increased productivity.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOf course it never did \u003Ci\u003Einsure\u003C\/i\u003E this, and universities cannot fix the \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2012\/04\/apples-attack-on-knowledge-economy.html\"\u003Eplutocratic tendencies of the tech economy,\u003C\/a\u003E by which I mean that cluster of practices that insure that the \"regional advantage\" we touted in the 1990s will never produce a tech manufacuturing empire staffed by white-collar armies on the model, of, say, the South Bay aerospace empire of the 1950s and 1960s.\u0026nbsp; The point is that UC can no longer make the same political claims to resources on the basis of an ever-more democratic distribution of knowledge and income. Compared to CSU and the CCs, it is comparatively rich and also located in fairly rich places that look the least in need of public funding help.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe solution is not \u003Ci\u003Eonly\u003C\/i\u003E to stress the large numbers of low-income students enrolled at UC. (UC policymakers should stop weakening this important case by \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2014\/11\/the-impact-of-tuition-hikes-on.html\"\u003Eexaggerating the immunity of low income students to burdensome \u003C\/a\u003Estudent debt).\u0026nbsp; The solution will involve explaining the concrete contribution UC instruction and research make outside of the tech industry as well, and for the vast majority of California counties that have no UC-sourced start-up companies and limited tech employment.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp; All UC disciplines make major contributions to the present and future workforce.\u0026nbsp; Until UC can make the broader case for all the fields and all the skills it offers, budget politics will continue to run against it."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/feeds\/248733592757177807\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2016\/02\/wherever-i-implant-uc-there-shalt.html#comment-form","title":"2 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/1170716682680204889\/posts\/default\/248733592757177807"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/1170716682680204889\/posts\/default\/248733592757177807"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/utotherescue.blogspot.com\/2016\/02\/wherever-i-implant-uc-there-shalt.html","title":"Where I Implant UC, There Shall Inequality Be"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Chris Newfield"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/01078395415386100872"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-VK_VIzC8GLk\/VsSsywzZLpI\/AAAAAAAADE8\/16OOjBAR4_A\/s72-c\/CA%2BInequality%2BTop-1-Precent%2BIncreased%2BShar1.png","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"2"}}]}});