Where's the Public?

I was happily off-line from California budget news, and returned today to see that understanding of the budget proceeds even more slowly than the budget deal itself. A key question: is Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger really trying to use the budget crisis to "reform state government," or is he ready to wreck state services during a major recession in order to block any imaginable kind of tax increase?

Today's LAT piece by the regular budget reporters illustrates the intellectual blockage that is central to the budget crisis. It presents Schwarzenegger as a would-be reformer with a deep interest in "reorganizing state bureaucracy, eliminating patronage boards and curbing fraud in social services that Democrats have traditionally protected." It adds, "The governor also would like to move past the budget crisis to reach a deal on California's water problems that has so far eluded him."

This raises the obvious question: why didn't Schwarzenegger do all this things before, since he's been governor for the last 6 years?

It raises a further question: why would a responsible, non-destructive person pursue reform by cutting public services 20% (the University of California), firing some state workers, and letting others take 8% paycuts (UC again), helping to make the state economy even worse?

The simple answer is because there is no downside to this grandstanding that might keep the Gov's essentially Reaganite "no government" vision of prosperity alive (Arnold has proposed no Cal Grants for low-income college students and no CalWORKS program for the unemployed). His dogmatic, extremist, spoiler proposals are setting the agenda not only because he is the Governor, but because there is no actual political discussion in California. The public has no voice in any of this at all.

The Public is voiced by a) journalists, who claim the no vote on Arnold's Mickey Mouse propositions in May meant "no new taxes" - with absolutely no evidence that this is what it meant. (Every no voter I have asked about this has a different explanation - they are tired of Mickey Mouse budget propropositions.) The public is also expressee by b) academic experts, who say that the public hates taxes and also doesn't care.

Bruce Cain, professor of political science at UC Berkeley, said . . . most Californians will see those to be hurt by IOUs as vendors and "overpaid state employees," not themselves.

"The reality of what these cuts he is pushing for will mean hasn't hit home with the public yet," Cain said. "They see him standing up to unions and trying to cut all the waste and fraud. . . . Until the middle class bleeds in a way they care about, Arnold has the upper hand."

How does Professor Cain know this? There's no evidence of research about this on his website, any more than there is evidence of reporting in the newspaper article. I have written him to ask about sources, and in the meantime post the one exit poll I do know of, by David Binder for the Cal State faculty association. This poll contradicts the Arnoldian wisdom that the voters are baying for more tax cuts rather than modern, effective public services - and an end to annual (and now monthy) budget trauma.

See the somewhat better because a little more historical piece in the SF Chronicle. See also a few attempts to describe the impacts on the public of the cuts.

Meanwhile, where's the public?