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| Santa Barbara, CA on October 15, 2026 |
Tenured faculty positions historically marked their university as important, even elite. That era is now over, but university officials are generally misreading what that means.
Many universities have been using educational technology to replace or deskill instructors for years. AI has now given research universities the idea that AI can replace or deskill researchers. Their faculty are often encouraging this idea. In her superb piece, “AI was great until it was not,” physics grad student Nia Robles describes a Harvard physics corridor in which grads and senior professors work with their models rather than each other. Prominent UC Berkeley mathematician Richard Borcherds told the Daily Cal that he no longer grades problem sets because they represent AI work not student work. “’If AI continues to improve at present rate, then, in a few years, there’ll be nothing human mathematicians can do that AI can’t do better.’” In a future where all research is done by OpenAI-Anthropic models or by managers using them, the
But back in reality, if you want your university to conduct research in a time of private science you need more tenure-line faculty, not fewer. If you want to help students to have powerful human intelligence on AI Planet, you need more tenure-line faculty, not fewer. And yet these truths are no longer self-evident.
In fact, tenure has never enjoyed a national consensus. Ten years ago, David Laurence’s foundational research showed that 40% tenure density defined only a quarter of U.S. universities. In addition, “Institutions where 70% or more of the faculty is tenured or on the tenure track are reached at . . . the last 136 (3.2%) of the 4,279 degree-granting institutions.” In 2019, the University of California “general campuses” had a 76% tenure-track (TT) rate (except for the Arts and Humanities, where TT density was just above 50%). Nationally, tenure has fallen from two-thirds to one-third of the faculty. High levels of tenure were correlated with high status, which in my view is mostly why governing boards endorsed it, but undoubtedly also with high research output and high levels of the intellectual development appropriate to those students who would become “the future leaders of the society.” Tenure had a large non-pecuniary and social value that was weakly theorized and never really explained to the wider public.
Many people are now thinking that this conceptual and social value can be generated by AI instead of intensive cognitive labor under the stable, supportive working conditions that tenure can bring. This conventional wisdom about AI is undermined by at least one of the AI companies: in a new report, Anthropic claims that the most valuable quality in their workplace is intellectual “autonomy and judgment.” That is best created by active learning with continuous study both alone and in groups (as Robles nicely explains). And that requires de-massification – more small-scale intellectual interactions—not further automation and offloading of thought.
At the moment, universities are going in the opposite direction. Dissertations in the humanities disciplines—which have taught autonomy and judgement since antiquity-- have already fallen by half, according to a new report, “Humanities in Crisis.” Even wealthy universities have paused or scaled back their doctoral programs in response to declines in faculty hiring. Meanwhile, the tech-mogul marketing claim that “we are pretty much in the superintelligence singularity” has sapped the general will to increase human brainpower. This falling confidence in mental development afflicts university people as much as, if not more than, anyone else.
It’s in this context that the University of California Faculty Association (formerly CUCFA), has launched a systemwide campaign called “Reinvest in the Mission.” A key demand is “Hire More Faculty”—tenure track faculty in particular. I don’t know of other campaigns to add a set number of tenure-line faculty by a specific deadline, and this one should be tested and developed as a national model.
UCFA has published a white paper, “Broken Promises: How UC’s failure to hire faculty is undermining higher education.” They have set up a Town Hall series for the fall term. The first three topics are, “The Challenges Facing Teaching Professors (October 28th), “AI, Overwork, and Shared Governance” (November 9th), and “Protect Research Budgets (November 12th). These are essential topics where faculty’s impact on policy depends on strong participation. If you teach at UC please go to one of these. Please offer as much input as you can stand in whatever mode suits.
I’ll come back to the UC case and the UCFA report but first want to note (again) that we are in another period of enormous danger for education as such. Fifteen years ago, Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) failed to match face-to-face course instruction in developing these mental powers with technology. But MOOCs exposed the weaknesses of passive learning and of the weak or non-existent sequencing of skill and knowledge development in the massified university. Now AI advocates have raised the prospect that models can teach better than humans and also just do the cognitive stuff humans may not need to do anymore. Even strong defenders of the obvious and essential need for the best possible human cognition do find AI very useful for learning. Minor flubs of interpretation can lead to massive disinvestment.
Another interesting feature of the Anthropic paper is that their frenzied use of AI agents has not reduced their human workforce. They are hiring fewer entry-level people—very bad for recent college grads—while tripling their workforce. AI-intensive work is labor-intensive. It is cognition-intensive, let’s say. Teaching the power of cognitive intensity is also labor-intensive. It requires intensity of teaching labor—and learning labor, meaning students need to be studying, practicing, and collaborating, not working at Home Depot 25 hours a week.
I won’t say more about this here: I wrote about the links between tenure-track faculty and cognitive development in July (“Invest or Die”); that Note included my updated chart of 14 intellectual capabilities that university graduates should possess. Now it’s true that more TT faculty is our guild preference. But the preference is grounded in the labor required by the cognitive development that universities are supposed to deliver. If universities want to walk the talk of AI-era human learning, they will need to support the face-to-face curation of individual and group capabilities by faculty who have the time, the working conditions, the workplace authority, and the combined scholarly-instructional skills to make this a reality.
This gets us back to the UCFA report: their survey suggests that UC faculty generally don’t have those working conditions now.
Figure 1
Figure 2
n other words, the permanent austerity on the campuses that is built into budgeting by UCOP and other finance offices hurts faculty productivity and faculty morale.
What has been the official response? In the late 2010s, UCOP acknowledged that growing student enrollment had been handled by growing the non-tenure track (NTT) faculty. In 2019 and 2020, they announced “UC seeks to grow non-recall LRE faculty by 1,100 over the next four years” – that is, by 2022-23. Covid happened, freezing hiring for a year. But they then delayed hiring 1,100 TT faculty (which would increase that group by 10%) from 2023 to 2030.
What has UC been doing instead? Not growing any category of academic personnel. Lecturer numbers are slightly lower in 2026 than in 2021. Clinical faculty are below 2021 levels. Graduate student employees (teaching and research) are down 5%. All academic employees together haven’t budged in 5 years (at just above 50,000 for the system). Student growth also slowed—from a cumulative 14% in the second half of the 2010s to 2% in the first half of the 2020s. But the impacts of unsupported growth are now frozen in place: oversized classes, reduced faculty research and teaching time, reduced personal contact, more administrative duties, etc.
What did keep growing? Non-academic hiring. That went from 118,667 in April 2021 to 152,901 in April 2025 before dropping back to 145,172 in the following year, for accumulated growth of over 22%. The UCFA report has a gripping, gruesome chart.
Figure 3This is a university, so naturally it spends its payroll money hiring non-academics!
This is of course absurd, and damaging to the academic mission. In response, UCFA wants to set up “An elected, representative faculty committee to negotiate with UCOP” that will “return to the 25.5:1 ratio.” I certainly endorse the committee and the goal. Shockingly, the Academic Senate has never set a student:faculty ratio target based on their expertise, even as typical class sizes soared far beyond today’s averaged ratio of nearly 30:1 (Figure 2) and UC fell far behind even the public universities in its comparative group (SUNY Buffalo is about 24:1, and the University of Michigan-Ann Arbor is 18:1; Figure 4).
As we’ve seen across many posts, this perverse neo-massification on the general campuses is built into the funding model. UCOP finance has constructed a political economy that supports the medical operations more the campuses. The plan is Blue-and-Gold Brostrom Borrowing, meaning borrow (and fundraise, which entails more borrowing) for capital projects that support clinical ROI and technology transfer, while condoning inadequate tax-based state allocations for teaching and research on the campuses (see Notes like “Selling,” “Stop Hurting,” “Peak UC?” etc.).
UCFA’s precursor, CUCFA, linkd educational need to the political economy of educational revenues: it developed The $66 Fix: Quality Affordable Higher Education. UCFA may want to start from a different place. This time the plan(s) will need to evolve into a systemwide faculty movement. A good start on that is the Town Hall series. All types of UC academic workers should go!












